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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
stormtracker

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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mdhokie

mdhokie

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I would like one pure snowfall where I don’t see a blade of grass. Is that too much to ask for?  It has been several years since that has happened. 

You need to cut your grass on the lowest setting in the fall. I believe this technique has been discussed around here before.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

SPV is toast starting  within 10 days so March should rock.;)gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_33.thumb.png.b4ef84ef320b7a835d0d9c38dfe0a45c.png

Honestly, and this is for everyone, if we got a widespread 10"+ MECS in early/mid March and that was it the entire winter, would you not enjoy it at all for whatever reason or would you treat it like a jackpot reward where patience finally paid off?? Be honest.

Me? I would savor the fuck out of it and Jebwalk the entire event...snow spotlight, pictures, video....etc.

I hope everyone knows I'm mostly just trying to have some fun and make light of this situation.  It is awful, but it's not actually ruining my life.  I'm just being a smart arse about it.  But... how March changes my perception of this winter would totally depend on how good March is and what happens in the next 2 weeks.  

Either way I would enjoy the hell out of any snow.  My 4 year old daughter literally cried last night.  She got a unicorn sled for xmas, it was the thing she wanted most...and its sitting totally unused in the corner behind the tree.  Yes the tree is still up because my kids don't want to take it down and what do I care I'm grown I can do what I want!  Do you know how unprecedented it is to not have at least one sledable event here by now?  So for her sake especially I will savor any snow we get.  

But for me...unless we get something out of what I do think is a decent, not good but decent, window next week, one storm in March wouldn't really do much of anything to change my perception of this awful train wreck of a season.  If we get a snow or two next week...then a couple snow events in March...yea it would move this season up out of the total dreg 2002, 2012, 2020 category into the simply run of the mill bad category.  Of course if we got some kind of 1960 epic run that included a HECS and 3 weeks of snowcover then of course it becomes a late save good year.  But what are the odds of that lol.  

For me what makes a winter is actually not the final total.  And it's not really even a big event.  This is hard to articulate clearly but its...was there a decent stretch at some point in the winter with snow cover and cold.  It doesn't have to be 20" of snowcover.  I was pretty happy with 2018 for example even though it was below avg snowfall here because we had a nice December storm, it wasn't a lot of snow but so cold the snow we got in late Dec and early Jan was on the ground for a while, and the March storm snow cover lasted like 7 days even in March.  So at the end I felt satisfied.  I got my "feels and looks like winter" fill.  On the other hand 2012/13 had identical snowfall totals here but it felt awful because every snow melted the next day and was spread out so there was no period that felt or looked like winter all season.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hope everyone knows I'm mostly just trying to have some fun and make light of this situation.  It is awful, but it's not actually ruining my life.  I'm just being a smart arse about it.  But... how March changes my perception of this winter would totally depend on how good March is and what happens in the next 2 weeks.  

Either way I would enjoy the hell out of any snow.  My 4 year old daughter literally cried last night.  She got a unicorn sled for xmas, it was the thing she wanted most...and its sitting totally unused in the corner behind the tree.  Yes the tree is still up because my kids don't want to take it down and what do I care I'm grown I can do what I want!  Do you know how unprecedented it is to not have at least one sledable event here by now?  So for her sake especially I will savor any snow we get.  

But for me...unless we get something out of what I do think is a decent, not good but decent, window next week, one storm in March wouldn't really do much of anything to change my perception of this awful train wreck of a season.  If we get a snow or two next week...then a couple snow events in March...yea it would move this season up out of the total dreg 2002, 2012, 2020 category into the simply run of the mill bad category.  Of course if we got some kind of 1960 epic run that included a HECS and 3 weeks of snowcover then of course it becomes a late save good year.  But what are the odds of that lol.  

For me what makes a winter is actually not the final total.  And it's not really even a big event.  This is hard to articulate clearly but its...was there a decent stretch at some point in the winter with snow cover and cold.  It doesn't have to be 20" of snowcover.  I was pretty happy with 2018 for example even though it was below avg snowfall here because we had a nice December storm, it wasn't a lot of snow but so cold the snow we got in late Dec and early Jan was on the ground for a while, and the March storm snow cover lasted like 7 days even in March.  So at the end I felt satisfied.  I got my "feels and looks like winter" fill.  On the other hand 2012/13 had identical snowfall totals here but it felt awful because every snow melted the next day and was spread out so there was no period that felt or looked like winter all season.

I'm with you and can relate 100% to the young daughter sledding thing. Dealing with it myself attm. 

Regarding the March snows, I wasn't really asking if that would change the perception of the winter as a whole. I'm essentially asking many of the folks that say March snow sucks..."Would you enjoy a widespread 10"+ MECS in mid/early March?". 

Like you, just killing some time and having fun. Maybe this belongs in banter....feel free to move it.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm with you and can relate 100% to the young daughter sledding thing. Dealing with it myself attm. 

Regarding the March snows, I wasn't really asking if that would change the perception of the winter as a whole. I'm essentially asking many of the folks that say March snow sucks..."Would you enjoy a widespread 10"+ MECS in mid/early March?". 

Like you, just killing some time and having fun. Maybe this belongs in banter....feel free to move it.

I can relate... yes I like snow whenever and I will track anything anytime, BUT... getting snow in March in an otherwise awful season is kinda like when your favorite team wins a game in an otherwise crappy season.  Yea you can enjoy that one game and cheer when they score...but at the end of the season it won't change how you feel about it as a whole very much.  

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

our winter is having technical difficulties.  It failed to boot properly.  We're stuck on the circle of death 

We probably have a week or so the end of the month into early Feb to luck into something with colder air in place, but trends on guidance don't look great beyond that. A lot more blue up top. Better h5 looks will probably show up on guidance for mid to late Feb, then we can do this all over again. Third time the charm lol? Dying Nina plus strat stuff may give a us a chance.

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
Need the sort of optimism that [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention]is putting out on here and the PhillyWx forums.

To answer Ralph’s question I get most of my joy in this hobby tracking/chasing the big one and watching heavy snow fall. Main reason Ive chased events over the last 10 years. Finally last year I chose ground zero for an event. I don’t care if we get 12” in May. Of course I’m not going to complain about having it stick around.

I pretty much agree with Cape, could luck into something end of month, nothing really popping yet but potential is there for that to happen. Then we hope for a reload end of month.


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CAPE

CAPE

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Just now, Heisy said:


To answer Ralph’s question I get most of my joy in this hobby tracking/chasing the big one and watching heavy snow fall. Main reason Ive chased events over the last 10 years. Finally last year I chose ground zero for an event. I don’t care if we get 12” in May. Of course I’m not going to complain about having it stick around.

I pretty much agree with Cape, could luck into something end of month, nothing really popping yet but potential is there for that to happen. Then we hope for a reload end of month.


.

The biggest 'risk' for the end of the month period might be chilly and dry. Some subtle hints on the means of waves tracking to our south, and the GFS op has teased a bit.

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…


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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We probably have a week or so the end of the month into early Feb to luck into something with colder air in place, but trends on guidance don't look great beyond that. A lot more blue up top. Better h5 looks will probably show up on guidance for mid to late Feb, then we can do this all over again. Third time the charm lol? Dying Nina plus strat stuff may give a us a chance.

I haven't given up on salvaging some snow this winter.  I do think we might get an opportunity next week.  A week of straight flow off the arctic will establish a colder regime.  But as I said yesterday its still disappointing that even with runs that have a severely displaced PV in a really good location with a week of straight polar flow...it still seems like the boundary want's to set up pretty far north.  The cold just isn't that impressive given the longwave pattern and not expansive enough for our latitude on the majority of runs.  But its close enough that it wouldn't shock me if we get a wave to work in that period.   

After that it's probably back to torch no hope for a while.  We have so much working against us in Feb.  The MJO is heading towards hostile territory.  And while the good phases have not helped us much recently...the warm phases always seem to kill us.  Its a negative correlation only.  Nina feb climo in a +QBO is pretty god awful.  I know some are referencing the dying nina but if you look at years with a fading weak nina heading towards neutral in Feb the climo isn't any better. 

Almost everytime we have a nina that might fade I see this "its fading by late winter" being tossed around but frankly there is absolutely no data or objective evidence suggesting a fading nina to neutral during winter is good.  The Feb/Mar analogs are actually WORSE.  Sometimes they turn around in March, almost never in Feb, but actually slightly MORE nina's that were strong all winter had a March turn around than the weakening ones.  That is because some of the nina tropical forcing that is awful during early and mid winter actually becomes somewhat favorable in March.   

Here are the Feb analogs to a weakening Nina heading to neutral enso over the last 30 years.

AnalogsFadingNina.png.d507918608238b1d4301a1a0b7605344.png

March is a wild card.  Is the PV takes a hit it does increase chances for blocking and in March blocking still seems to be impactful.  It seems early in the season to even mid season blocking just doesn't have much impact anymore, at least not enough to bully other factors anymore...but Feb and Mar it still can.  So if we can get blocking in March maybe we salvage a period of opportunity.  Similar to 2018.  

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