January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[CAPE]

Pretty good look on the HH GFS

And then this..

[WxUSAF]

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Soooooo...no comments on the HH GFS around Feb. 1-2???  I know, I know...300+ hours out on an ops run.  But it shows how something could work if cold air presses in and a wave cuts underneath.  That will be gone I'm sure in the 00Z run, but fun to look at!

This is the period that makes the most sense for a favorable outcome in our region imo. I haven't really been enthused about anything until after the 25th.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

OK, I can't view the Euro weeklies but I'll assume that basically much of February according to them look awful.  I honestly don't know what to make...or how much to really put stock into the weeklies.  How many times have they looked good but then it's not in the end? 

You just have to know how to decode them. Here this might help…

if it looks…

bad = crap

ok = crap

meh = crap

workable = crap

Kinda good = crap

Good = crap

wow = crap

amazing = crap 

crap =crap 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

This is the period that makes the most sense for a favorable outcome in our region imo. I haven't really been enthused about anything until after the 25th.

Same. Folks should put the two eaves next week on ignore, lol

[brooklynwx99]

if we are going to win in this pattern, the 18z GFS is how you'd do it

TPV drops down, establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and a SS wave clashes with it and leads to significant overrunning snowfall

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, CAPE said:

This is the period that makes the most sense for a favorable outcome in our region imo. I haven't really been enthused about anything until after the 25th.

Right, very good point.  And well, if we can keep that "look" going forward in time for that same period, there may be something to this.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You just have to know how to decode them. Here this might help…

if it looks…

bad = crap

ok = crap

meh = crap

workable = crap

Kinda good = crap

Good = crap

wow = crap

amazing = crap 

crap =crap 

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we are going to win in this pattern, the 18z GFS is how you'd do it

TPV drops down, establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and a SS wave clashes with it and leads to significant overrunning snowfall

What’s discouraging is the 540 line is still north of NYC.  The same old story of not getting cold to penetrate south of 40N even with silly cold in Canada. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

What’s discouraging is the 540 line is still north of NYC.  The same old story of not getting cold to penetrate south of 40N even with silly cold in Canada. 

I get that pessimism reigns right now, but this is plenty cold. if we were as cold as Canada, it would be suppressive

[DE2PA]

Some of yall need to leave this negative boomer energy on the Facebooks.

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I get that pessimism reigns right now, but this is plenty cold. if we were as cold as Canada, it would be suppressive

I get it.  It’s so far out anyway it doesn’t matter. But I do see that’s how we win…you more than me unless we can get some wedging.  We need some luck and some cold

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I get that pessimism reigns right now, but this is plenty cold. if we were as cold as Canada, it would be suppressive

Taking this run verbatim (I know, I know!!!), you can see that a front goes through prior to that wave moving in, with temperatures dropping through that event.  So again, taking this as-is, yeah, there would be a good bit of fresh cold air around.

[Ji]

this belongs in some kind of thread right?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Ji said:

this belongs in some kind of thread right?

Green'd!!!

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z 2 weeks and 56 runs to go!!!!

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What’s discouraging is the 540 line is still north of NYC.  The same old story of not getting cold to penetrate south of 40N even with silly cold in Canada. 

Ya I’m glad you said it. I was thinking it but was just gonna not say anything for fear of pitchforks. But EVERYTHING goes 100% absolutely perfect and it’s still a mixed event in DC and Baltimore and the southern 1/2 of this forum gets rain. With literally a textbook everything  for a mid Atlantic snowstorm including a CP airmass!  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this belongs in some kind of thread right?

You can retire for this winter now. All your op run digital goals have been obtained.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Great … another storm that begins with a 3

[BristowWx]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Great … another storm that begins with a 3

Glad it doesn’t run past 384.  Imagine analyzing a 524 frame.  You know we would.  

[AtlanticWx]

55 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

What’s discouraging is the 540 line is still north of NYC.  The same old story of not getting cold to penetrate south of 40N even with silly cold in Canada. 

if the 540 line were over us it'd probably be crushing NC

[Solution Man]

59 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 2 weeks and 56 runs to go!!!!

FanDuel odds now open, early odds +750

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we are going to win in this pattern, the 18z GFS is how you'd do it

TPV drops down, establishes a very cold antecedent airmass, and a SS wave clashes with it and leads to significant overrunning snowfall

 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

FanDuel odds now open, early odds +750

Look at the frozen gradient in PWC.  That’s on for the books. Every mile SE to NW is an additional car topper.

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

this belongs in some kind of thread right?

I don't understand this.  The WB version of that map shows me with like 4" of snow but TT shows 20" of snow.  Does WB not include sleet and TT does?   Calvert county getting 16" of sleet?  I'll take the 35" for Garret County though.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I don't understand this.  The WB version of that map shows me with like 4" of snow but TT shows 20" of snow.  Does WB not include sleet and TT does?   Calvert county getting 16" of sleet?  I'll take the 35" for Garret County though.  

TT shows all frozen including sleet and freezing rain as 10-1.  WxBell does better at estimating snow v ice, still tends to over do accumulations along the transition zone  

 

[IronTy]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

TT shows all frozen including sleet and freezing rain as 10-1.  WxBell does better at estimating snow v ice, still tends to over do accumulations along the transition zone  

 

It's bad enough to have to sort out differences between the various crap models but we also have to deal with biases between different companies interpreting the same data from each individual model?  There's no rest from the onslaught in this profession.  

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

It's bad enough to have to sort out differences between the various crap models but we also have to deal with biases between different companies interpreting the same data from each individual model?  There's no rest from the onslaught in this profession.  

To be fair anyone in the profession knows what they’re looking at and would never use those TT snow maps. 

[clueless]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To be fair anyone in the profession knows what they’re looking at and would never use those TT snow maps. 

Party pooper. 

[Steve25]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

FanDuel odds now open, early odds +750

Are you sure that's not supposed to be +75000?