January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You mean this time period because if so I'm confused to what we are tracking here.

Not based on that...and that's out in fantasy range anyway. Now if it still looks like that 4 days from now then nah. Just a hunch that's all, lol If we gonna get on the board it'll happen late Jan or early Feb.

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is one simple problem. Look…

day 7 ecmwf

This should be the seeding eastern US with arctic air.  Don’t anyone say a thing about the pac or puke this is a straight flow off the arctic into a broad trough.  

But look 4 days later…

severely displaced PV and it’s just not cold enough.  Despite a continued CP airmass and straight feed off the arctic the boundary is at our latitude which isn’t good enough because any wave along the boundary will push it north of us if it can only barely get your latitude between waves.  
 
ITS JUST NOT COLD ENOUGH and it has nothing to do with the pac in that case! 

 

 

Translation: The arctic isn't cold enough, lol (we should really move this though...we're about to step over the line)

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's because the ridge out west retrogrades into the ocean, pumping a ridge for a bit. the cold air is coming verbatim

Ninas do that crap sometimes. it's annoying

The ridge retrogrades too far AFTER but even for the week it’s ok we just don’t see the push of cold we need. And even when it starts to retro a PV displaced like that there should mitigate some. Ya you’re pointing out the imperfections but it’s never had to be 100% perfect to snow before. If it was we would average…well like 8” which is what DC is averaging the last 7 years!   We need to be able to get some snow from flawed looks. Nina historically means we don’t get a ton of snow not this. This isn’t typical Nina.  We rarely get a dreg year in a Nina actually. This is not normal. 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The ridge retrogrades too far AFTER but even for the week it’s ok we just don’t see the push of cold we need. And even when it starts to retro a PV displaced like that there should mitigate some. Ya you’re pointing out the imperfections but it’s never had to be 100% perfect to snow before. If it was we would average…well like 8” which is what DC is averaging the last 7 years!   We need to be able to get some snow from flawed looks. Nina historically means we don’t get a ton of snow not this. This isn’t typical Nina.  We rarely get a dreg year in a Nina actually. This is not normal. 

some years are a mixture of generally poor patterns and bad luck. I don't think it's a matter of it never snowing again in marginal setups... it hasn't snowed for much of the NE this winter south of NYC. just a crappy winter

but idk, it does get very cold, the ridge out west retrogrades, some ridging pumps as a result, and the TPV is about to move in. it all seems relatively normal to me. just a bunch of crap luck that it doesn't snow

[brooklynwx99]

i think the tenor of this subforum will change when CC contributes to two 30"+ winters for BWI in like three years. the band has to snap the other way. wouldn't make sense if it didn't

[Volcanic Winter]

Yeah there’s a huge variability across the northeast and mid Atlantic that this forum targets. I haven’t had a great stretch lately where I am at home close to the coast (but inland from it) in central NJ, but last January in particular was fantastic given the past few years. I don’t think guys here did quite as well (but didn’t the Delmarva score too?) 

IDK how many of you read the New England forum as well but the SNE guys there are equally as miserable. Many, even pretty far north have only a couple inches on the season. This isn’t just a M/A skunkjob. Everyone’s hurting, but of course the places that should do best have been doing best this year. The coastal plain is simply striking out down into the western part of this sub forum. 

It really just seems like bad patterns mixed with terrible luck mixed with Niña base state exerting itself at the worst times. Not saying that’s all of it, but seems to be a big part of it this year. 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think the tenor of this subforum will change when CC contributes to two 30"+ winters for BWI in like three years. the band has to snap the other way. wouldn't make sense if it didn't

I’m not sure you realize how bad it’s been. Baltimore needs to average 30” over the next 5 years just to get the last 10 years back to “normal” and that’s the new lower 19” normal. Forget getting back to the historical 22” normal!  

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not sure you realize how bad it’s been. Baltimore needs to average 30” over the next 5 years just to get the last 10 years back to “normal” and that’s the new lower 19” normal. Forget getting back to the historical 22” normal!  

If we can have a stretch like 2013/14-2015/16 I'm not sure it'll matter whether it makes this stretch look worse, lol This will always be the worst period in our snow climo...and if things don't turn around I think it'll look even worse (I mean we just did 1.2" three years ago...I do hope we can avoid that this year...but who frickin' knows?)

[windycutter]

Decent look

[WesternFringe]

3 minutes ago, windycutter said:

Decent look

There’s a separate thread for that

[TSG]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I think climate change is just making the bad periods really bad, and it has led to some really good periods too! 2009-10 through 2015-16 had some really good winters and now we're in the stretch that we're in. the same is holding true to a lesser extent for NYC

just going to have to take the garbage with the gems

I don't know if it's wise to expect another period like that. For all we know that was a transient set of conditions that could only occur with the warming that had occurred up to that point. We've gained ~0.3C globally since then. Current running mean is ~0.95C above the 1950-81 average, it was ~0.65C in 2010. So something like 25-30% of the warming that has occured, has occured since that period and as we've seen recently, our part of the Atlantic seems to be doubling down on that trend.

I would expect different results now if we had the same patterns set up as those years. It's been too long. I think we're in a different era now and analogs are going to become increasingly hard to use for forecasting without adjustments being made based on our new background state. 

[WxUSAF]

We have a thread for this!!

[AtlanticWx]

yeah the advertised pattern is basically just a hyped up backside of a trough now since the ridge starts pumping as it leaves

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1997, 2001 analogs (97-98/01-02). Love the -NAO in Dec when it's wetter lol

 

 

[DE2PA]

If these trends continue, Storm 2 may cut so far west this it brings rain to St. Paul.

[yoda]

Turn out the lights looking at the Euro weeklies... ouch

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Turn out the lights looking at the Euro weeklies... ouch

they have blocking returning, likely due to the obliterated SPV. this is a plausible scenario given a weakened SPV

but yeah the first half looks ugly

[yoda]

Yes, but that's week... 5

 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they have blocking returning, likely due to the obliterated SPV. this is a plausible scenario given a weakened SPV

but yeah the first half looks ugly

And it continues the good look. Nina dead. Back loaded. Makes sense. Only a month away!

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yes, but that's week... 5

 

it does kind of make sense when you see the SPV take a shot like this, though. usually you see the SE ridge strengthen and then blocking develop. there's a 3-4 week lag anyway with the SPV stuff that takes you to the end of February... lines up with the Weeklies

weakened SPVs do make blocking easier. it's not out of the question to see blocking return late in the winter

[jayyy]

Meanwhile it’s thunderstorming at my friends place in Toledo OH in mid January. Tells you everything you need to know about this shitshow of a Fall 2.0 we’re in.


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[DE2PA]

Whats 1st half of Feb looking like

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

And it continues. Nina dead. Back loaded. Makes sense. Only a month away!

That’s not that far off from what we’re getting in the week ahead. Just with less WAR I guess. Smarch is coming to save winter 22-23!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Turn out the lights looking at the Euro weeklies... ouch

OK, I can't view the Euro weeklies but I'll assume that basically much of February according to them look awful.  I honestly don't know what to make...or how much to really put stock into the weeklies.  How many times have they looked good but then it's not in the end?  So I guess grain of salt?  Though I know some mets have been pretty down on February in general, so whatever.  At this point with how things have gone I almost don't give a shit (no shits for the blinds, LOL!!!).  If much of February is nothing or a blowtorch, I'll hope that maybe it can turn around late-month into March.  That's happened before.

 

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

they have blocking returning, likely due to the obliterated SPV. this is a plausible scenario given a weakened SPV

but yeah the first half looks ugly

So this is late February, heading into March.  To continue my thoughts (such as they are!) from what I replied to @yoda above...could this be a sign of a very late winter "comeback" of sorts?  I've had it in the back of my mind that we could well have crap most of the DJF period (we have so far, why change it?? LOL!!!), but have a very back-loaded winter in a way with a colder period late Feb into mid-March.  I know a lot of people in here poo-poo March snows, but I don't mind them!  We've had some good ones over the last several years.  If we have almost nothing and it's getting later into February, and a good MECS type storm shows up for March, I'd take that!  I mean, why not??  And who cares if it's March and it would disappear a lot quicker than if we got it now?

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s not that far off from what we’re getting in the week ahead. Just with less WAR I guess. Smarch is coming to save winter 22-23!

Oh but next time it will work. 

[CAPE]

Too bad the CFS sucks.

 

[jayyy]

So this is late February, heading into March.  To continue my thoughts (such as they are!) from what I replied to [mention=397]yoda[/mention] above...could this be a sign of a very late winter "comeback" of sorts?  I've had it in the back of my mind that we could well have crap most of the DJF period (we have so far, why change it?? LOL!!!), but have a very back-loaded winter in a way with a colder period late Feb into mid-March.  I know a lot of people in here poo-poo March snows, but I don't mind them!  We've had some good ones over the last several years.  If we have almost nothing and it's getting later into February, and a good MECS type storm shows up for March, I'd take that!  I mean, why not??  And who cares if it's March and it would disappear a lot quicker than if we got it now?

General rule of thumb the last 2 winters…. if LR ensembles show a great pattern, it’ll likely fizzle as we get closer. If they show garbage, they verify

in all seriousness…. If it is true that Señorita Niña is finally dying out by around late Feb into march, then perhaps we get lucky with a 3 week window of winter weather on the backend. We all know the affect that two very different air masses clashing has on producing large storms. While snow is generally tougher to come by late in the season, the big boy storms come out of the woodwork in that period as well. Who knows. I’ve learned not to discount anything at this point.


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[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh but next time it will work. 

Exactly! SSWs never fail!

[WxUSAF]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Too bad the CFS sucks.

 

The durable -NAO isn’t crazy. Ensembles keep correcting to more -NAO in the long range the last several days and in theory a strat PV disruption would reinforce it as well. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Soooooo...no comments on the HH GFS around Feb. 1-2???  I know, I know...300+ hours out on an ops run.  But it shows how something could work if cold air presses in and a wave cuts underneath.  That will be gone I'm sure in the 00Z run, but fun to look at!