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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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TSSN+

TSSN+

Posted
Posted

The gfs is terrible till it’s right, the euro is the best till it’s wrong. Pretty much how this winter has been. Anytime there’s multiple models showing snow the one model not has usually won. And if the euro is alone showing snow, forget it. 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted

00z CMC = close but no cigar for wave 1 with a low that tracks directly over Baltimore to NYC (slightly inland)

Wave 2 is a Miller b - primary tracks to Ohio as a secondary low forms over the Carolina’s. Phasing happens too late and is an interior NE special

Plenty of time for both to adjust a bunch of times, but that’s the verbatim outcome on tonight’s run.


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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted

cbb22bced2b942da15c10a273511bc74.jpg
Wave 2, part 2

Secondary takes over, intensifies into a 984 low along the NE coast. Too late for our area for the goods verbatim, but the NW crew does see some snow. Wave 2 is 7-8 days away however, so things will shift a ton between now and then. Never a good idea to worry too much about surface details from this far out.

Could just as easily see the primary track further east and therefore see the secondary pop further east. Expecting a bunch of waffling over the next week, especially once wave 1 comes and goes and models begin to pick up on it’s impact on wave 2. Really hoping we see wave 1 lay the groundwork for wave 2 with it being only 2 days prior. Need that sucker to drag the boundary south

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