January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[psuhoffman]

18z eps is same for Sunday but a lot better as the next wave starts to get together. Way more confluence over the northeast. I really think had it gone out further it would have been a good run for next week. Not worth much but hey I’ll take it. 

[psuhoffman]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:18 AM, AtlanticWx said:

18z eps w/ some pretty major improvements for the storm on the 26th. less amped S/W & lower heights of the EC (555 line was in PA last run now it's south of DC)

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Yea I see it too. I’m very confident had it gone out far enough given the setup there would have been a lot of hits. 

[snowfan]

  On 1/19/2023 at 12:08 AM, stormtracker said:

Which we all know, is bar none, creme de la creme.  Folks, you can't get this kind of content anywhere else. 

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Maybe mostco or tenman will return to help you w pbp.

[psuhoffman]

I actually enjoy this. I like the challenge. I like the analysis. I like the banter and debates. And I like the camaraderie.
 

Yes I would like it all more if it was snowing. But being here isn’t why it’s not snowing. If I wasn’t doing this it still wouldn’t be snowing I just wouldn’t be enjoying this discussion with you guys. 
 

So honest question/point… if you really don’t like the tracking and only want it to snow….why not just stop tracking and simply enjoy the snow when it comes?  
 

[WesternFringe]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:20 AM, snowfan said:

GFS looking good

 

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Haha! Fringed!  (On the dark blues)

[TSSN+]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:20 AM, snowfan said:

GFS looking good

 

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If only we can get the gfs to look like that at 18hrs 

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:31 AM, psuhoffman said:

I actually enjoy this. I like the challenge. I like the analysis. I like the banter and debates. And I like the camaraderie.
 

Yes I would like it all more if it was snowing. But being here isn’t why it’s not snowing. If I wasn’t doing this it still wouldn’t be snowing I just wouldn’t be enjoying this discussion with you guys. 
 

So honest question/point… if you really don’t like the tracking and only want it to snow….why not just stop tracking and simply enjoy the snow when it comes?  
 

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Not how the weenie brain works, lol No matter how torturous it may be, the urge to look for some sign (be it likely or remote) is just one of them things that's hard to resist. So even some of the most cynical and jaded can easily end up right back in here! honestly believe there's a certain addictive element to it.

[DE2PA]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:31 AM, psuhoffman said:

 

So honest question/point… if you really don’t like the tracking and only want it to snow….why not just stop tracking and simply enjoy the snow when it comes?  
 

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Tracking these things are 2/3rds of the fun. Watching all the pieces come together. Truly understanding how a storm forms/bust/over performs.

[psuhoffman]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:38 AM, DE2PA said:

Tracking these things are 2/3rds of the fun. Watching all the pieces come together. Truly understanding how a storm forms/bust/over performs.

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For me I totally agree. But some are acting like this is torture. If so…just stop. Nothing will change. It will still snow or not snow. No reason to do something that has no impact if you don’t enjoy it. 

[clskinsfan]

NAM even colder heading into the Sunday event this run. Hope to see the temps improve even more over the next 24 hours. 

[Heisy]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:55 AM, clskinsfan said:

NAM even colder heading into the Sunday event this run. Hope to see the temps improve even more over the next 24 hours. 

Wave is def flatter and in the 12z icon/ukie camp, but it’s the NAM at 84 hours. I’m really hoping we see a change for storm 2 on 00z models.

The 18z EPS is encouraging. Both the euro and gfs differentiate on how they get there for storm two


12z euro (and now 18z) break a northern stream shortwave out ahead of the main one, this lessens heights and reinforced a little cold.

GFS doesn’t do this at all. GFS was super amped with this next event last couple days so hopefully we see a trend S tonight.

For us to get snow out of system two we need that wave near the Lakes in the euro part of the gif to trend stronger. The main
wave trended flatter won’t hurt either


.

[clskinsfan]

RGEM is crazy cold at the surface heading into the Sunday event. 850's are decent. But that much cold would probably take some time to scour out. May end up icy?

 

[jayyy]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:55 AM, clskinsfan said:

NAM even colder heading into the Sunday event this run. Hope to see the temps improve even more over the next 24 hours. 

Think we’ve got a shot from my area over to yours to see some decent snow with this Sunday storm. Yes, it’s the NAM at range, but I’m zeroing in on the look at 48-60 hours, which is well within NAMs wheelhouse. I like what I see so far. Hope to see the trend continue.


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[Ravens94]

[TSSN+]

Icon solid for the NW crew 

[Ravens94]

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/19/2023 at 2:31 AM, psuhoffman said:

I actually enjoy this. I like the challenge. I like the analysis. I like the banter and debates. And I like the camaraderie.
 

Yes I would like it all more if it was snowing. But being here isn’t why it’s not snowing. If I wasn’t doing this it still wouldn’t be snowing I just wouldn’t be enjoying this discussion with you guys. 
 

So honest question/point… if you really don’t like the tracking and only want it to snow….why not just stop tracking and simply enjoy the snow when it comes?  
 

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I love tracking with you guys and the excitement among the group (comraderie) as favorable trends happen and we get closer to go-time. The funniness at times, the joking, the keyboard personaIities, etc.

[TSSN+]

Need the GFS to fold faster than a wooden table a bills fan jumps into. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/19/2023 at 3:43 AM, TSSN+ said:

Need the GFS to fold faster than a wooden table a bills fan jumps into. 

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Bills mafia ftw

[cbmclean]

Long range GEFS and GEPS have the NPJ rather muted.  In fact it retracts too far on the GFS, which is consistent with the general east coat ridging as depicted on that model's ensemble mean. 

Also the SPV continues to look as if it will be somewhat abused in the long-term.

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS has the Sunday low over NOLA at 78 hrs vs over middle Oklahoma at 18z fwiw.

[TSSN+]

The gfs is a disgrace. Someone take that model out back and put it out of its misery. 

[TSSN+]

Let’s play find the low pressures. Looks like someone threw up on the map. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/19/2023 at 3:58 AM, TSSN+ said:

The gfs is a disgrace. Someone take that model out back and put it out of its misery. 

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Slowly making a move to the Euro and icon. Painfully slow

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/19/2023 at 4:00 AM, TSSN+ said:

Let’s play find the low pressures. Looks like someone threw up on the map. 

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Loop last 3 runs. Baby steps. Probably won't help with storm 1. Bigger threat with storm 2 imo.

[Solution Man]

  On 1/19/2023 at 4:01 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Slowly making a move to the Euro and icon. Painfully slow

 

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Stubborn but finally making a move. Give it a day

[TSSN+]

  On 1/19/2023 at 4:02 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Loop last 3 runs. Baby steps. Probably won't help with storm 1. Bigger threat with storm 2 imo.

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Gfs laughs at this and cuts biggly 

[clskinsfan]

  On 1/19/2023 at 4:08 AM, Solution Man said:

Stubborn but finally making a move. Give it a day

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It has become unusable at this point. They need to go back to the old GFS. At least you knew it's biases 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

My Daffodils are gonna love the watering over the next couple of weeks.

[WesternFringe]

  On 1/19/2023 at 4:17 AM, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

My Daffodils are gonna love the watering over the next couple of weeks.

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Cool- keep us posted