January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

At least we get heavy rain with temps in the mid 40s instead of 33 degree drizzle.

2nd wave, things look flatter in front..slightly..we'll see where it's going in a sec

[stormtracker]

Just now, stormtracker said:

2nd wave, things look flatter in front..slightly..we'll see where it's going in a sec

more of the same.  Great for areas west and north of HGR

[stormtracker]

def still close enough to track/keep an eye on tho.  Next up, 18z euro!

[brooklynwx99]

it's a good thing the GFS is consistently awful

[windycutter]

Primary to far north.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it's a good thing the GFS is consistently awful

And the 18z GEFS will probably look nothing like 12z lol. Follow the leader.

[brooklynwx99]

I have been deceived by the GFS way too many times. so many times it'll be by itself on something to completely cave

[IronTy]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I have been deceived by the GFS way too many times. so many times it'll be by itself on something to completely cave

Unless all the other models show snow and only the GFS shows the low cutting.  Then it scores the coup every time.  

[brooklynwx99]

FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the SLP positions on the GEFS. most are offshore

[snowfan]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Well, time for the GFS and my shitty analysis.  I'm sorry yall

The gift that keeps on giving.

[Interstate]

Baltimore City gets 0.4 inches this run which is more than I get. lol. 

[clskinsfan]

GFS bringing the goods to the western burbs a week from Sunday as well. Would be nice to score three events in a week. Would save this debacle of a winter for me. 

[Ji]

Brutal...even jan 29 is 33 and rain

[TSSN+]

[Ji]

GFS bringing the goods to the western burbs a week from Sunday as well. Would be nice to score three events in a week. Would save this debacle of a winter for me. 

When did you move to west virginia? Same time snyder moved to london?

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

When did you move to west virginia? Same time snyder moved to london?

Sounding is snow here. But yeah. 36 at the surface. I would take lumpy mashed potatoes at this point.

[clskinsfan]

JonJon and Snowshoe are loving this run. 30 inches would keep them open for a while. 

[IronTy]

Damn I think I need to go to meadow mountain next weekend.  

 

[VA Mad Man]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

JonJon and Snowshoe are loving this run. 30 inches would keep them open for a while. 

Leaving for Snowshoe on the 23rd!

[WinterWxLuvr]

The gfs is just a model I can’t place faith in, good or bad

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, snowfan said:

The gift that keeps on giving.

You enjoy it.  More to come!

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs is just a model I can place faith in, good or bad

You can??

[WinterWxLuvr]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You can??

Lol, I corrected it. I haven’t gone off the deep end.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol, I corrected it. I haven’t gone off the deep in.

Dude, I was about to say...

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol, I corrected it. I haven’t gone off the deep in.

Now see, I had assumed it was just sarcasm rather than a typo, lol

[Heisy]

Not having any blocking is just devastating right now. Hope cmc/GEPS is right so any shortwave around 29/30th is forced farther S.

Even here on the gfs for the LR storm, we have a 50/50 but there’s no blocking so the 50/50 keeps moving N




.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Not having any blocking is just devastating right now. Hope cmc/GEPS is right so any shortwave around 29/30th is forced farther S.

Even here on the gfs for the LR storm, we have a 50/50 but there’s no blocking so the 50/50 keeps moving N




.

Not really, it’s still a really impressive storm even if it’s rain. 

[Heisy]

Not really, it’s still a really impressive storm even if it’s rain. 

I mean if you get off on rainstorms, then, I guess?


.

[George001]

Just now, Heisy said:

I mean if you get off on rainstorms, then, I guess?


.

What’s wrong with getting excited about rainstorms? I just bought a rain gauge, and am looking forward to putting it to use on Monday for the inland runner the models have. Im looking forward to finding out exactly how much rain we get. If you allow yourself to get excited about a wider variety of weather this hobby becomes a lot more enjoyable. We can’t control the weather so what’s the point in letting it ruin your day? For me, I would rather embrace the weather we get, not only root for a specific type of weather and get pissed when we don’t get it. I get a lot more enjoyment out of this hobby now that I’m doing that.

[jayyy]

The GFS has been Good For Shit this winter. NAM and ICON had a setup closer to the Euro / Ukmet for wave 1. Let me see that 00z Euro & Ukie tonight. If they look like the GFS, I’ll lower my already small expectation for wave 1. If the euro looks good, we live to fight another day on the initial wave

One thing we know for sure is that the evolution of wave 2 will be pretty dependent on how wave 1 unfolds. Not interested whatsoever in the current surface depictions of wave 2 at this juncture. Models haven’t yet honed in on what wave 1 will do. Zero shot I give any credence to what they show for wave 2.

Euro / Ukie are really the only major OP models with any semblance of credibility that are in their prime range for wave 1. And while the NAM at 84 and beyond is WAY outside of its wheelhouse, it may be catching on to the first 48-60 hours most accurately, which arguably looked best of any model for our area at 500mb. I’m curious to see how it looks at 00z tonight. If it shows a similar first 60 or so hours, perhaps it’s onto something.