January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I thought we weren't having this conversation in here anymore?   

You right--gonna transfer to the other thread

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

My thoughts are that the fact that the ICON and the Euro show the possibility of frozen Sunday has more weight than the bouncy GFS. Not sure about the UKIE, and the CMC is consistent with its low placement and mostly rain. I can believe any of them except the GFS.

You're certainly in a better spot than most of us.  I'd def have hope if I were at your location.  

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

the issue is when it does get cold...there is never any precip around. So it looks like the cold period we will have starting Jan 26 is going to be precipationless

But there is a logical physical reason for that.  We've been dealing with total continent wide torches people forget how hard it can be to get a lot of snow even in a cold pattern around here.  I am about to generalize so please don't post every exception to the rule...but 90% of winter precipitation (or at least the type that we are tracking) comes from warm air advancing over cold air.  Storms ride along the boundary and in front of any wave the southerly flow will try to push the cold boundary north.  That is necessary to getting the WAA precip responsible for most of our snow anyways.  But...given our location, northeast of the Gulf, along the coast, with very little elevation....if we don't have some mechanism in the northern stream to prevent the boundary from advancing north...we are going to be toast most of the time unless we just get incredibly lucky with timing.  Storms are naturally going to want to lift as they get close to the east coast with all the heat gets added from the gulf then atlantic to the southerly flow of any approaching wave.  This is why blocking is so important.  Our best setups are when something tries real hard to lift north but it cant...its blocked...and the result is all that warm air trying to press into the cold and we get crushed.  But what is way more typicaly is there isn't something to prevent the boundary from lifting and so we are cold behind waves...and warm up as the next approaches.  Cold dry warm wet.  Its basic wave physics.  

[clskinsfan]

GEFS is definitely better than the op for Sunday. It is keying on the southern stream vort. And is colder than the op for west of the Blue Ridge. 

[AtlanticWx]

gefs is crazy for the 26th system - ~50% of >1" and a mean of 4" mostly from the 26th system (give or take 0.1")

[CAPE]

[WinterWxLuvr]

On 1/11/2023 at 2:22 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

Jan 21-22

Jan 26-27

Feb 1-2

Feb 11-12

Feb 19-20

Snow

Lets see how my personal ensemble does.

Bump

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

gefs is crazy for the 26th system - ~50% of >1" and a mean of 4" mostly from the 26th system (give or take 0.1")

Do you have this after the Sunday storm but before the next one?

[AtlanticWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Do you have this after the Sunday storm but before the next one?

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

[psuhoffman]

GEFS is a fucking thing of beauty for next week.  Best possible signal in every way from an ensemble at that range.  It's the GEFS so take it for whatever you think its worth but damn.  

See I was ninja'd by everyone lol 

[Prestige Worldwide]

now bring the storms please 

[Ralph Wiggum]

What do the JMA and UKIE say?

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GEFS is definitely better than the op for Sunday. It is keying on the southern stream vort. And is colder than the op for west of the Blue Ridge. 

 

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The Sunday wave is gonna be difficult to work out...even for the NW crew, because the airmass in front is just so awful.  Even with a pretty good track, if the wave has any amplitude to our west the southerly flow will wreck what little cold there is easily.  It's not no hope...but we need a lot to go right.  The airmass gets progressively a little better after each of these waves so we have a better chance next week imo.  

[brooklynwx99]

the GEFS has been steadily trending towards a faster SS vort:

this likely leads to a later / sloppier phase, which ends up leading to latitude gain at a later time, pushing the vort S but maintaining its strength, similar to what the ICON does

this is also shown by the SLP spread... we've seen a continuous shift towards more of a coastal low as opposed to a lakes runner

so, again, I really only favor this for the interior, but if you want to track something, I think this is worth it. just set your expectations to 0 if you're close to 95

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What do the JMA and UKIE say?

The UKIE on pivotal has no data at all when I looked

[AtlanticWx]

gefs improves the LR pattern too btw

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Now if we can hold this look through Saturday’s model runs, I’ll start to get excited. 

[AtlanticWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Now if we can hold this look through Saturday’s model runs, I’ll start to get excited. 

tbh this is def just ensembles going crazy for one run

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

tbh this is def just ensembles going crazy for one run

Yeah, a lot depends on what the Jan 23 system does. It’s like a volleyball setter for the next wave. 

[AtlanticWx]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, a lot depends on what the Jan 23 system does. It’s like a volleyball setter for the next wave. 

i think these se trends for the 23rd while they seem useless bc we prob wont get snow is rlly good for the 27th system as it shunts the boundary further SE & helps fight the amplification

[CAPE]

The biggest difference I see on the 12z run is up top, with the strength/timing of the TPV vorticity lobe rotating south and the vortex in the 50-50 position. The op run made a favorable move and the mean really picked up on it. Could easily change the next model cycle.

 

[jayyy]

Very curious to see what some of the OP runs show at 00z tonight, mainly the euro. We are beginning to enter the OP euro’s wheelhouse (D5ish) for Monday. Going to be the hardest wave to cash in on, but there’s a chance the northern crew finally sees a respectable event if current trends toward a coastal solution hold. As PSU said, the following 2 waves have a much better shot at producing snow - especially for the metros and nearby suburbs - as the airmass gets better with each passing wave.

There is a *chance* that the northern crew could cash in on all 3 waves in some way shape or form. I feel pretty decent about our chances to get something out of 2 out of the 3. If the move toward a coastal for wave 1 continues over the next 48 hours, my interest in it will certainly increase. I’m definitely most intrigued by waves 2 and 3. Besides having more cold air to tap into and there being snowpack to the NW from wave 1, they also have the best shot at slowing down and blowing up along the coast. If wave 1 ends up being a coastal wave like many ensembles are now trending toward and blows up to our NE, that has implications in dragging the boundary further south - which gives us a much better shot for the subsequent 2 waves. Proper spacing between waves and a good eventual track for wave 1 - even if it’s a slop fest as it rolls through here, could provide us the Atlantic side help we’ve so desperately needed. If wave 1 ends up blowing up somewhere near SE Canada, wave 2 and 3 could be cash ins. If wave 1 acts as a mechanism to slow things down a bit and not allow the cold air to scour out so quickly, we’re in business.

Still a long way to go, but it feels good to at least be tracking the 5+ day window and not the 10-14+ day window.


.

[NorthArlington101]

18 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Very curious to see what some of the OP runs show at 00z tonight, mainly the euro. We are beginning to enter the OP euro’s wheelhouse (D5ish) for Monday. Going to be the hardest wave to cash in on, but there’s a chance the northern crew finally sees a respectable event if current trends toward a coastal solution hold. As PSU said, the following 2 waves have a much better shot at producing snow - especially for the metros and nearby suburbs - as the airmass gets better with each passing wave.

There is a *chance* that the northern crew could cash in on all 3 waves in some way shape or form. I feel pretty decent about our chances to get something out of 2 out of the 3. If the move toward a coastal for wave 1 continues over the next 48 hours, my interest in it will certainly increase. I’m definitely most intrigued by waves 2 and 3. Besides having more cold air to tap into and there being snowpack to the NW from wave 1, they also have the best shot at slowing down and blowing up along the coast. If wave 1 ends up being a coastal wave like many ensembles are now trending toward and blows up to our NE, that has implications in dragging the boundary further south - which gives us a much better shot for the subsequent 2 waves. Proper spacing between waves and a good eventual track for wave 1 - even if it’s a slop fest as it rolls through here, could provide us the Atlantic side help we’ve so desperately needed. If wave 1 ends up blowing up somewhere near SE Canada, wave 2 and 3 could be cash ins. If wave 1 acts as a mechanism to slow things down a bit and not allow the cold air to scour out so quickly, we’re in business.

Still a long way to go, but it feels good to at least be tracking the 5+ day window and not the 10-14+ day window.


.

You might like this run for Sunday... shift in the right direction for most.

[WxUSAF]

Euro’s a good hit for far N/W Sunday and already looking very different for the next week storm. 

[brooklynwx99]

we want to see the southern stream continue to tick faster for Monday... it seems like that's the main culprit for the lowered heights later in the run:

[WxUSAF]

FWIW based on track alone, crazy uncle Ukie seems to be on a favorable camp for Sunday/Monday.

[stormtracker]

@180 Euro has the NW burbs looking pretty good, 0 line bisects, who else, DC.

[LP08]

Euro has a front end thump for next Wednesday as well through 168.

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

@174 Euro has the NW burbs looking pretty good, 0 line bisects, who else, DC.

As Ji mentioned earlier, it's so juicy. MSLP transfer wasn't that favorable but still an exciting run -- good thing we got 40 more to go