January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[windycutter]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Baby steps

Agreed, but all three low placements would bring enough warmth to many southern areas.  Seems to phase up too soon.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

10-4.  Wave behind it looks farther west behind the first fail.  

looks worse than 6z but way better than 0z or the runs before.  Things will bounce at that range...I won't really worry about the next wave until we get clarity on this first one.  Actually second because there is a wave late this week to clear first and the exact final amplitude of that one affects everything behind also.  

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looks worse than 6z but way better than 0z or the runs before.  Things will bounce at that range...I won't really worry about the next wave until we get clarity on this first one.  Actually second because there is a wave late this week to clear first and the exact final amplitude of that one affects everything behind also.  

Oh, I thought it looked better :/.  Well, at least we have some interesting features to watch.  I guess

[WinterWxLuvr]

What I like about the gfs is its rock steady consistency. A low now over Snowshoe (which has probably never happened) today from a low over Lake Huron yesterday.

Edit: referring to Sunday

[Terpeast]

Maybe with a more SE track on the Jan 23 wave (still not thinking in play for us) we could get a better airmass setup for the next wave after that? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Watch the Euro bring snow Sunday

[Solution Man]

Great detailed info, thanks

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Great detailed info, thanks

What details would you like?  Everything is too warm on the GFS.  FAR western MD west of HGR looks decent for the second wave

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Oh, I thought it looked better :/.  Well, at least we have some interesting features to watch.  I guess

We're still in the game.  But I still feel like we're playing a man down here.  Look at the 6z GFS. 

Why is the rain/snow line along 95 with that progression.  That's really important because that should have been about as perfect an outcome as DC could possibly hope for, and it was still marginal with precip type issues for 95 and the flush hit was NW of the cities.  No wiggle room on a run where everything went perfect.  Maybe this makes me a deb but while others were celebrating the run I saw that and it left me more depressed because it shows just how stacked against us the deck is 

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

We're still in the game.  But I still feel like we're playing a man down here.  Look at the 6z GFS. 

Why is the rain/snow line along 95 with that progression.  That's really important because that should have been about as perfect an outcome as DC could possibly hope for, and it was still marginal with precip type issues for 95 and the flush hit was NW of the cities.  No wiggle room on a run where everything went perfect.  Maybe this makes me a deb but while others were celebrating the run I saw that and it left me more depressed because it shows just how stacked against us the deck is 

Agreed now that it's further out.  Man, if we had the cold, what could have been.  Juicy little storm too

[ryanconway63]

Whatever the GFS is doing right now, I would bet on it being wrong.....looks like its trying to do some type of weird Miller B but cant make its mind up 

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

Whatever the GFS is doing right now, I would bet on it being wrong.....looks like its trying to do some type of weird Miller B but cant make its mind up 

It's hilarious that anyone takes it seriously.  I'm not sure it's even good for seeing trends.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

Whatever the GFS is doing right now, I would bet on it being wrong.....looks like its trying to do some type of weird Miller B but cant make its mind up 

Before you think that something can't happen because it looks weird remember that we had a storm that went from the outer banks to Harrisonburg last year. 

[psuhoffman]

Regarding the day 7 storm...at that range the difference between the 6z and 12z is noise.  The 12z actually held the general idea of a more coastal system v the true cutter of all the runs prior to 6z.  Go back and compare...the runs from yesterday were cutting the system to kingdom come.  Fact is even the 6z with an absolutely perfect track was marginal at best for snow here.  This is just a reality we seem to be dealing with no matter what.  So we have no margin for error...the 12z GFS synoptic evolution is still pretty good and would have been a decent frozen event (probably mixed) if we had an actual cold airmass in place.  

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC cuts into Canada with the primary but still has some front end ice. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Regarding the day 7 storm...at that range the difference between the 6z and 12z is noise.  The 12z actually held the general idea of a more coastal system v the true cutter of all the runs prior to 6z.  Go back and compare...the runs from yesterday were cutting the system to kingdom come.  Fact is even the 6z with an absolutely perfect track was marginal at best for snow here.  This is just a reality we seem to be dealing with no matter what.  So we have no margin for error...the 12z GFS synoptic evolution is still pretty good and would have been a decent frozen event (probably mixed) if we had an actual cold airmass in place.  

The Canadian model went the wrong way unfortunately at 12z by bringing the primary low further north. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Regarding the day 7 storm...at that range the difference between the 6z and 12z is noise.  The 12z actually held the general idea of a more coastal system v the true cutter of all the runs prior to 6z.  Go back and compare...the runs from yesterday were cutting the system to kingdom come.  Fact is even the 6z with an absolutely perfect track was marginal at best for snow here.  This is just a reality we seem to be dealing with no matter what.  So we have no margin for error...the 12z GFS synoptic evolution is still pretty good and would have been a decent frozen event (probably mixed) if we had an actual cold airmass in place.  

the issue is when it does get cold...there is never any precip around. So it looks like the cold period we will have starting Jan 26 is going to be precipationless

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What details would you like?  Everything is too warm on the GFS.  FAR western MD west of HGR looks decent for the second wave

Just saying thanks for explanations, nothing else

[Ravens94]

Push is definitely starting to show from up north

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the issue is when it does get cold...there is never any precip around. So it looks like the cold period we will have starting Jan 26 is going to be precipationless

I wouldn't say that yet...STJ still seems to be active to my novice eyes...

[Ralph Wiggum]

34 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

CMC looks a bit better and may be closer to the ICON, but the GFS looks the same as its 6z run

Least snowiest model wins 90% of the time.

[Ravens94]

Only getting better 

Individual members are losing the low to the west 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Push is definitely starting to show from up north

Pretty big shift for an ens means at this range

[ryanconway63]

The Pattern that sets up on the GFS after the 26th is certainly interesting.  It will change by the 18z run so prob not even worth mentioning.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

The Pattern that sets up on the GFS after the 26th is certainly interesting.  It will change by the 18z run so prob not even worth mentioning.

There have been plenty of signs in op runs and ensembles that we probably get a respectable arctic push from this pattern and both GGEM and GFS show it today. That probably means cold/dry for a couple days outside snow showers with the arctic front. Question then becomes if we can throw some moisture back over the cold air as the TPV retreats back to Canada.

[Ravens94]

Cutters are gone

[cbmclean]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What can ya do with above average temperatures we've had this month up to this point, though? If we had a situation like this 30 years ago with above average temps through mid-January two weeks before this system...would it somehow turn out differently then vs now? Or are you saying that starting off a January this way wouldn't have happened 30 years ago? Lol (that argument actually makes more sense)

You're starting down that path again.  This is a perfectly valid topic of discussion but lets do it in the appropriate thread as has been requested.

[WinterWxLuvr]

My thoughts are that the fact that the ICON and the Euro show the possibility of frozen Sunday has more weight than the bouncy GFS. Not sure about the UKIE, and the CMC is consistent with its low placement and mostly rain. I can believe any of them except the GFS.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What can ya do with above average temperatures we've had this month up to this point, though? If we had a situation like this 30 years ago with above average temps through mid-January two weeks before this system...would it somehow turn out differently then vs now? Or are you saying that starting off a January this way wouldn't have happened 30 years ago? Lol (that argument actually makes more sense)

I thought we weren't having this conversation in here anymore?   

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You're starting down that path again.  This is a perfectly valid topic of discussion but lets do it in the appropriate thread as has been requested.

Yeah you right (and I'm one of the ones who supported that, lol)