January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Interstate]

16 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Planes Trains and Automobiles?

[anotherman]

Planes Trains and Automobiles?

Yep

[frd]

Still to early to tell about the very end of the month, but this post by Griteater makes a good point about opposing forces, at least at the end of the month. 

 Posted 1 hour ago

A few thoughts on the pattern ahead...

 

The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14).

As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east.

The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern.

In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern.

I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

 

 

[Kay]

'shit the blinds' immediately connected to 'shit hit the fan' in my brain and I guess that tracks anyway I'll never be able to unsee this

[RDM]

"If it weren't fur bad luck, we'd have no luck at all.  Gloom...  despair...  and agony are we... "    

[Eskimo Joe]

6 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

What phase is the current WDI? 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Still to early to tell about the very end of the month, but this post by Griteater makes a good point about opposing forces, at least at the end of the month. 

 Posted 1 hour ago

A few thoughts on the pattern ahead...

 

The jet in the E Pac is going to collapse over the next 5-6 days. Meanwhile, there will be a new jet extension in the W Pac that kicks out off E Asia beginning on day 3 (Jan 14).

As we go out in time into the last 10 days of Jan, there are going to be competing forces that will likely play a role in determining how much this next jet extension pushes east.

The MJO tropical forcing is likely to become active in the Indian Ocean (Phase 2-3) which is a setup that favors limited jet extension, leading to a -PNA pattern.

In contrast, the developing height anomaly pattern over Asia of ridge in west & central Asia and trough in E Asia is one that will favor surface high pressure systems dropping down into E Asia, which typically leads to momentum being added into the Pac Jet as low pressure systems exit E Asia and head toward the Aleutian Islands, leading to a -EPO and/or +PNA pattern.

I'd say I'm 50/50 on it at the moment in terms of how this will lean for the last week of Jan into the beginning of Feb.

 

 

Maybe this is over simplistic, but...even if the two meet squarely in the middle, that must be better than what we've had, right? Lol And I personally like the period towards the end of the month/Feb...feels like we can get another dice roll at least! (I don't count this coming weekend as a dice roll, lol)

[Heisy]

00z GEFS and GEPS still different at day 9-11…

GEPS is straight porn in the LR

Think GEFS is different than euro/cmc because of how it’s OP and members handling those short waves day 8-10 vs other models






.

[JoshM]

5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

So glad I lifted the ban on the word fuck.

Fuck. Here we are.  Fuck.

[Weather Will]

I request that managers clean it up in here please….

[Weather Will]

WB OZ EPS looks like it has kicked the can down the road a few days until the last 8-9 days of January with enough cold air to support snow.  I guess we will know in a week if it holds or is another mirage….some big hits start to appear in this time frame.  Latest WB GEFS extended mean for this timeframe is also showing some potential with enough cold air….have a good day everyone…

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ EPS looks like it has kicked the can down the road toward the end of its run.  I guess we will know in a week if it holds or is another mirage….

When I see Op/Ensembles kicking the can down the road this is a tell tale sign that the pattern change is more fantasy then reality IMO. We'll see.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

When I see Op/Ensembles kicking the can down the road this is a tell tale sign that the pattern change is more fantasy then reality IMO. We'll see.

Patterns like to repeat in winter…we got a cold shot around Christmas, we will be due for another around peak climo for snow so we now need some luck…

[CAPE]

The period around the 22nd is still worth keeping an eye on for first a chance at something. CMC ens has low pressure off the coast and is colder.

[Rtd208]

Roger Smith

[DE2PA]

What’s slinging that LP back to the NW after it clears our area?

Real wonky looking 

[psuhoffman]

12 hours ago, Lowershoresadness said:

Man, this winter broke you

@Ji knows I’m just teasing.  If there was something positive to have legit discussion I’d stop but things are so awful might as well have some fun with it.  If we can get the pattern change inside day 10 and things start to get more serious my tone will change. 

[DE2PA]

Gotta love this look inside 648 hours

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji knows I’m just teasing.  If there was something positive to have legit discussion I’d stop but things are so awful might as well have some fun with it.  If we can get the pattern change inside day 10 and things start to get more serious my tone will change. 

Good news. Pattern change only 9.5 days away!

 

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news. Pattern change only 9.5 days away!

 

Three days of cold followed by a cutter then back to cloudy and 50 everyday. 

[BristowWx]

44 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Gotta love this look inside 648 hours

yes, the GFS is basically saying "hey 540 line, not happening...534 your days are numbered too...528 suit up"

[Wxdavis5784]

51 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Gotta love this look inside 648 hours

Start a thread.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Good news. Pattern change only 9.5 days away!

 

West Coast ridge axis displaced too far to the left... WAR not going to make any friends either 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

Three days of cold followed by a cutter then back to cloudy and 50 everyday. 

Exactly! MAJOR pattern change!

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB OZ EPS looks like it has kicked the can down the road a few days until the last 8-9 days of January with enough cold air to support snow.  I guess we will know in a week if it holds or is another mirage….some big hits start to appear in this time frame.  Latest WB GEFS extended mean for this timeframe is also showing some potential with enough cold air….have a good day everyone…

The EPS isn't a can kick...it was NEVER showing colder anomalies making it into our area until after Jan 25 at the earliest.  If you compare the h5 from previous runs and last night, and I am about to in a post I am working on now, the pattern at day 10 from last night is nearly identical to previous runs.  The GEFS was bringing in cold a lot sooner, when isn't it, and it is starting to can kick because it is coming around to the EPS/GEPS.  In reality the two are meeting in the middle, the EPS has backed off the PNA a bit in the long range and focused more on the EPO but not as bad as the GFS.  A compromise here can work.  I haven't seen indications of a can kick YET...but we arent within safe zone yet and even if we get this pattern change there are imperfections and issues that could still mean no snow for you if the details within the pattern don't break out way but I will get into that in my next post.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Exactly! MAJOR pattern change!

 

[Chris78]

All 3 major global ensembles agree on it turning cold enough for snow by the last week of January.  Not saying it will snow but ours chances should be better than the God awful pattern we are in now.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

All 3 major global ensembles agree on it turning cold enough for snow by the last week of January.  Not saying it will snow but ours chances should be better than the God awful pattern we are in now.

Some dude in NY said one and done this year early Feb. Maybe this is setting up for it?

[WxUSAF]

Each of the 3 ensemble systems did something at the very end of their runs last night that I really liked. Way out there, but what else is there to talk about? 
 

They all pull a piece of the trop PV underneath the strong -AO and growing east based -NAO with a broad trough in eastern north America. And here the remnant WAR/SE ridge is still helpful to keep the storm track nearby. I like it a lot.

 

[brooklynwx99]

the 06z GEFS has a really interesting pattern evolution, as the strong -AO ends up dislodging the TPV into Canada. there are also hints of a -NAO developing, which would help greatly with this kind of -EPO setup. a decent handful of members have a ridge bridge between the potential -NAO and -EPO, which would be lights out. there's even some split flow with the weak troughing over the SW US

so, even though the GEFS has some initial weak SE ridging as the pattern establishes itself, which often happens, the pattern quickly becomes very cold and pretty damn favorable north of Philly, but it certainly can work for you guys if the boundary pushed far enough S. I like seeing the signals that the TPV will get displaced and elongated, as we'd have no source region issues at all and HPs will pack a bigger punch... antecedent airmasses are more likely to be favorable as well, and there's semi-permanent confluence where the TPV locates itself:

the EPS and GEPS look favorable due to a farther E ridge into the PNA domain. they both manage to keep the SE ridge offshore and the baroclinic zone S. these patterns would provide numerous chances:

 

I do understand the hesitation and even the pessimism given how this winter has gone, believe me. it's been really frustrating. but looking in a vacuum, this has the potential to become a legitimately good pattern with a bit of luck. there is a risk of cutters, but there's a risk in pretty much every pattern outside of Feb 2010. we're likely going to see one around the 22nd or so that establishes the cold airmass, but that's how these types of patterns go

moving forward, I want to see the -NAO trend a bit more cohesive. this has been happening, but this would change the pattern into something decent to good into a potentially great one. I also want to see the +PNA ridge tick east or for the cross polar flow to strengthen via the potential cutoff high N of AK. this would "force" cold air east regardless of the PNA, similar to what the GEFS has

overall, I still want to wait a bit to see which ensemble suite has the correct evolution, but I'm honestly kind of excited to see where this will go. if the boundary is far enough south, which is certainly possible even without -NAO help (which may show up), then these types of patterns can provide events quickly. regardless, there will be tons of cold air on our side of the globe, and it's a thousand times better than what we've been seeing for the last couple weeks