January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Kevin Reilly]

38 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

 

This looks promising!

What year is that from? LOL Lock it in!!  It's Happening!

[anotherman]

That looks awesome.  Wish it wasn't the ICON, or the GFS, or the....

[Ravens94]

Need a little more strength and everyone wins

[stormtracker]

Sigh.  ICON.  We know it's shit, but we still get excited by it.  I'm with WxUSAF/PSU....I don't think that one is the one.  ICON is a mirage at this point.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ravens94 said:

Need a little more strength and everyone wins

Au contrare...don't want it any more amplified than that lest it be too warm

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Sigh.  ICON.  We know it's shit, but we still get excited by it.  I'm with WxUSAF/PSU....I don't think that one is the one.  ICON is a mirage at this point.

I ain't even been paying it much attention...I'm tracking the pattern change more than anything else. I mean if this one surprises, great! But otherwise...eh on the ensembles, lol

[Ravens94]

GEFS has also been trending SE the last 3 runs

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Au contrare...don't want it any more amplified than that lest it be too warm

Check the low level temps. If it's a weak pos it is probably rain/non accumulating snow. 

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, Ravens94 said:

Need a little more strength and everyone wins

That track is heartbreak for SoMD.  Has the ICON ever nailed a storm this far out?

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kaiser starts off 12z well. Key to a coastal track seems to be a more northern stream dominated shortwave as 6z gfs and 12z icon show.

I think the GFS was doing the same general evolution but with the next wave middle of next week.  But the concept applies to all these waves.  Either way this was a HUGE shift for a relatively short lead time so lets see if the other 12z guidance picks up on it or if its just a hiccup run of a JV model.  

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Kaiser starts off 12z well. Key to a coastal track seems to be a more northern stream dominated shortwave as 6z gfs and 12z icon show.

There's a Kaiser Permanente model?

[CAPE]

Hoping for a solid event somewhere within a few hours drive over the next 2 weeks. I can take a mini vacay anytime during that period.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, anotherman said:

That looks awesome.  Wish it wasn't the ICON, or the GFS, or the....

Wish it was a radar not any model 

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Sigh.  ICON.  We know it's shit, but we still get excited by it.  I'm with WxUSAF/PSU....I don't think that one is the one.  ICON is a mirage at this point.

Yea but on the other hand if we're trying to have some hope the ICON still has better scores than anything that existed 10-20 years ago...its just crap compared to the newest upgraded globals (or GFS before it recently went haywire).  But this is the first run of the 12z globals and its at a range where its not impossible that if something shifted the ICON could pick up on it.  Doubt it but crazier things have happened.  Lets see in a few mins if the GFS and CMC are feeling any of the ICON vibes.  

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think the GFS was doing the same general evolution but with the next wave middle of next week.  But the concept applies to all these waves.  Either way this was a HUGE shift for a relatively short lead time so lets see if the other 12z guidance picks up on it or if its just a hiccup run of a JV model.  

Yeah, pretty big shift. Don’t think I’ve seen substantial digital blue for us within 100 hours yet this winter before today  lol. 

[psuhoffman]

The main change on the ICON is around hour 72 as the system is in the formative stages in the plains its a lot weaker and a little faster this run.  That tightens the wave spacing some which helps...the NS also doesn't dig as much as so the system is flatter and slides east more and then phases and develops from a further east location.  It's a rather significant change for only 72 hours...if its real the other guidance should see it this run I would think. 

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, pretty big shift. Don’t think I’ve seen substantial digital blue for us within 100 hours yet this winter before today  lol. 

indeed we have not. 

[stormtracker]

So far, 12z GFS very similar to 6z

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

So far, 12z GFS very similar to 6z

Looks almost identical

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah, pretty big shift. Don’t think I’ve seen substantial digital blue for us within 100 hours yet this winter before today  lol. 

Which makes the bashing of models even more silly.  Was just thinking about that this morning...how there's been a lack of digital blue which matches very well with ground truth.

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Looks almost identical

Compared to ICON though, heights are a bit higher on the GFS, so I don't expect it to be good like the ICON for storm 1.  Although comparing to 6z, slightly lower, nothing substantial

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC looks a bit better and may be closer to the ICON, but the GFS looks the same as its 6z run

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So far, 12z GFS very similar to 6z

nope its still phasing with the NS out over OK.  That's game over for us.  We don't have a cold airmass in place so we can't survive any southerly flow ahead of the wave.  We need perfect timing which is what the ICON gave us... initially missing the phase, sliding east, then developing once the low was due south of us.  That is pretty much the only way this works out.  

[stormtracker]

Def a bit shift S and E on 12z vs 6z, but still not enough

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

nope its still phasing with the NS out over OK.  That's game over for us.  We don't have a cold airmass in place so we can't survive any southerly flow ahead of the wave.  We need perfect timing which is what the ICON gave us... initially missing the phase, sliding east, then developing once the low was due south of us.  That is pretty much the only way this works out.  

huh? I was saying they are similar

[psuhoffman]

@stormtracker let me be clear, if we had a cold airmass in place the setup on the GFS would be fine also...problem is without any true cold in front of it we can't afford the wave to amplify really at all before it gets to our longitude.  

[Paleocene]

Temps are torchy on the GFS for the first thing that the ICON tried to put blue on us for. 540 line is up by interstate 80, surface temps around 40 in our region.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, stormtracker said:

huh? I was saying they are similar

I mean't "Nope not gonna do it for us" sorry I was agreeing with you.  

[Ravens94]

Baby steps

[stormtracker]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I mean't "Nope not gonna do it for us" sorry I was agreeing with you.  

10-4.  Wave behind it looks farther west behind the first fail.  

[psuhoffman]

In a nutshell the only way we have a chance with this is if the NS doesn't phase in at all over the plains and its the STJ wave that keys development later along the east coast.  We don't have the necessary cold airmass for a west to east wave of any amplitude to work here.