Jrlg1181 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, pazzo83 said: I think we were in the teens with sleet in C'ville. Yes, out in western Albemarle we got less than a hour of snow then pure sleet for the storm duration... measured 7.5 inches of sleet.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah we were just starting to get better vibes in here again, lol Let's please just focus on the now as much as we can. Don't you know they control the models to periodically show false positive outputs? The positive vibes are just the weather-industrial complex stringing us along only to better crush our hopes and enjoy the sweet taste of weenie tears. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Thought this was relevant for up here 3 hours ago, GaWx said: Models are as emphatic as ever about very strong stratospheric warming/SSW late this month into early Feb. Many Arctic areas are projected at 10 mb to warm 40-50+ C (72-90+ F) within just 5-10 days! The trend at 10 mb has been slowly toward a further N Alaskan ridge and further S SPV. These trends are increasing the chance that any SSW will be "major", which means that the mean wind direction north of 60N shifts from W to E. The chance for a major SSW is higher during the 2nd half of winter. Since 1958, there have been 13 winters with one in the late Jan to early Feb timeframe or 20% of them: 1958, 1960, 1963, 1971, 1973, 1981, 1987, 2001, 2003, 2006, 2009, 2010, 2018 How many of these 13 had significant multi week long cold periods to follow starting 10+ days afterward in the SE? Using ATL: 1958, 1960, 1963, 1971 (La Niña with cold first half of Feb), 1973, 1987, 2001 (La Niña with cold March), 2006 (La Niña with cold Feb), 2009 (La Niña with cold 2nd half of Feb to early March), 2010, 2018 (La Niña with cold March) - So, 11 of the 13 had significant cold to follow in Feb and/or March - So, specifically looking at just the 5 La Niña winters with a late Jan or early Feb major SSW, all 5 later had significant and lengthy cold to follow in Feb and/or March. Conclusion: Because of the very strong SSW progged late this month, there's a very good chance for a multi week period in the SE dominated by significant cold in Feb and/or March starting at some point 10+ days after the SSW, which means most likely 2/10 or later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 I can't explain how much I hate the gfs 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Thought this was relevant for up here Love the ongoing battle between twitter Mets of SSW vs No SSW. Like watching a session of congress. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, DE2PA said: Love the ongoing battle between twitter Mets of SSW vs No SSW. Like watching a session of congress. Stratocrats vs Nowarmlicans? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 00z gem! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Worst pna ridge ever. We can't do anything right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Arguably the worst gfs run of the season 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Arguably the worst gfs run of the season That’s saying something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 0z Euro - The track of the sunday event isnt very good nor is the cold air availability...The day time arrival hurts too...Looks like a 1-2" grassy type of event for far exurbs, with more in higher elevations... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 More snow on the TX / Mexico border than in this AOR. Shit the blinds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 10 minutes ago, DE2PA said: More snow on the TX / Mexico border than in this AOR. Shit the blinds. Man it's hour 240 on an op sheeeesh (and btw that's a good sign because the STJ is active) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Summary of the 0Z…. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Summary of the 0Z…. What are you lookin' at, exactly? No can kick on the pattern change...SE ridge still getting beaten down...But if you're talking about getting anything before that then no the football wasn't exactly there in the first place as the pattern would be only just starting to shift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Summary of the 0Z…. More like a summary of the entire winter so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 3 hours ago, Ji said: Arguably the worst gfs run of the season Agreed. If we still had the despair index it would be pretty frickin high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What are you lookin' at, exactly? No can kick on the pattern change...SE ridge still getting beaten down...But if you're talking about getting anything before that then no the football wasn't exactly there in the first place as the pattern would be only just starting to shift! It does not look like we will pull a rabbit out of hat in the next week or so if the deterministic models are correct. Boundary remains to our NW. EPS is not updating on WB but maybe that is for the best.. I have not given up but my expectations are low. Congratulations to interior New England….WB 0Z. It looks to me that we will have to see where we are later next week/ next weekend for a discreet threat. At some point you have to stop staring at 500MB potential and say WHERE IS THE BEEF!!!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: What are you lookin' at, exactly? No can kick on the pattern change...SE ridge still getting beaten down...But if you're talking about getting anything before that then no the football wasn't exactly there in the first place as the pattern would be only just starting to shift! The general pattern progression and timing on the ens runs hasn't changed. In my mind beyond the 25th is where the chances for frozen for most of our region would begin to increase. The 23rd has looked like a Central/N PA and north event on the means for awhile, with possibly the NW fringes of our area having some minor impacts. The Ji storm around the 27th has looked marginal for cold but certainly isn't dead. Beyond that is where the best potential lies but ofc we are 10 days away. Folks get tired of the waiting. With the depicted h5 setup, the cold will build and be close by, but the bleed southeastward probably comes incrementally with multiple events putting down some snow to our north first. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Another dramatic gfs change for midweek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Another dramatic gfs change for midweek Yup, after a horrible WB 0Z GFS from start to finish , 6Z tries to reel us back in for next week. Such a volatile pattern, with no clear trends yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Yup, after a horrible WB 0Z GFS from start to finish , 6Z tries to reel us back in for next week. Such a volatile pattern, with no clear trends yet. All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means.Ens means are boring though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: All the years of doing this, and you guys still expect some sort of consistency from op runs 7+ days out lol. The 'trends' are found on the ens means. Seemed like the 0Z GEFS took a step back and really shortened the window of opportunity, but maybe I over reacted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Seemed like the 0Z GEFS took a step back and really shortened the window of opportunity, but maybe I over reacted.We're likely to get zero snow from Jan 22 to when it warms up again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Seemed like the 0Z GEFS took a step back and really shortened the window of opportunity, but maybe I over reacted. We're likely to get zero snow from Jan 22 to when it warms up again Can’t say that yet, but the GEFS extended is not looking good after early February. Hopefully a storm will appear between 25th-2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 WB has been shitting the blinds lately with the EPS. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 Storm 1 for late Sunday period is on life support on WB 6Z GEFS. Weak and too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 45 minutes ago, Ji said: Ens means are boring though Exactly, nothing but avocados and blue balls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2023 Share Posted January 18, 2023 39 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Can’t say that yet, but the GEFS extended is not looking good after early February. Hopefully a storm will appear between 25th-2nd. Fits the Roger Smith narrative....one legit shot early Feb, warmup middle 2 weeks, back to cold end of Feb. The guy forecasts thru the stars and is mostly spot-on. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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