January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[nw baltimore wx]

59 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

I think I remember seeing -12 that Jan as I was under my parent's porch trying to thaw frozen pikes. 

[Solution Man]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.  

This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could put a football through it.   These are dangerous and heady times folks.   I am here for all of us and remember...

I will always love you.  Let's do this.

Make the call, you’re the mike

 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Prep to worry about being fringed on the next Euro run.  We both know we've got a hit on our hands then.  You're welcome.

 

[Weather Will]

This year in particular, beyond a few days the models have been horrible.  GFS is a waste of time outside 48 hours.  Hopefully the GEFS will hold or be an improvement.

[Chris78]

46 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

I grew up in a similar spot...Walkersville.  Our driveway was about 100yds long and uphill. Remember   my sister's car sliding down the driveway, after a failed attempt to make it up. Slid off the driveway and stayed on top of the snow and into the woods. 

Wow. That's crazy.

In one of the storms my sister and I was ice skating on our back yard and she ended up falling and breaking both the bones in her arm.

My parents drove her into Frederick memorial during a raging sleet storm.

[AtlanticWx]

this pattern is gonna be locked and loaded, lots of opportunities esp from the 27th onwards w/ an active STJ coupled w/ multiple waves passing thru. imo 27th is our pattern changer but we could score w/ it if all goes well, just gotta see how things progress.

18z gefs only continues to improve the pattern fwiw, i thought it'd come to an end soon like how the trends for a favorable pattern in december stopped abruptly but it seems like we're within the fantasy pattern range and w/ models only continuing to improve the pattern, perhaps it's time to start getting excited.

my only worry is that we go from warm/wet to cold/dry, but multiple waves are passing through so we should be fine?

[AtlanticWx]

3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

this pattern is gonna be locked and loaded, lots of opportunities esp from the 27th onwards w/ an active STJ coupled w/ multiple waves passing thru. imo 27th is our pattern changer but we could score w/ it if all goes well, just gotta see how things progress.

18z gefs only continues to improve the pattern fwiw, i thought it'd come to an end soon like how the trends for a favorable pattern in december stopped abruptly but it seems like we're within the fantasy pattern range and w/ models only continuing to improve the pattern, perhaps it's time to start getting excited.

my only worry is that we go from warm/wet to cold/dry, but multiple waves are passing through so we should be fine?

case in point, an impressive mean ~10 days out

and for reference w/ out a smoothed mean, 18z gfs paints a good picture

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.  

This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could put a football through it.   These are dangerous and heady times folks.   I am here for all of us and remember...

I will always love you.  Let's do this.

That's a cool story.  

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS….  Can’t make this stuff up….

[DE2PA]

Erection jokes are where we draw the line in here huh?

 

Noted.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS….  Can’t make this stuff up….

If one image captures our winter despair it’s that one.  Awesomely awful. 

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Erection jokes are where we draw the line in here huh?

 

Noted.

@ravensrule

Is this true?

[psuhoffman]

Apparently JB just posted a video and is comparing the pattern to 94. Sorry guys. It’s my fault. He obviously reads the board and now that he’s said it we’re definitely going to torch. I’ll own this one. 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@ravensrule

Is this true?

Sad if true.  Everyone’s been so stiff lately.  

[DE2PA]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sad if true.  Everyone’s been so stiff lately.  

 

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@ravensrule

Is this true?

I wont re post it because I don’t want to get booted out of here..

but it was very funny, I feel sorry for anyone who was unable to enjoy it.

[CAPE]

Not an expert but I am guessing this isn't a good look if you are a Stratospheric Polar Vortex.

[Ji]

we need a good run tonight. The OP models have been crushing the ensembles all winter. the ensembles have given us hope but the OP models never agree with them and guess what..zero snow this year

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Apparently JB just posted a video and is comparing the pattern to 94. Sorry guys. It’s my fault. He obviously reads the board and now that he’s said it we’re definitely going to torch. I’ll own this one. 

Guess we’ll be having our vodka warm 

[IronTy]

29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS….  Can’t make this stuff up….

Lmao...the DC snow hole is alive and well.  

[Solution Man]

14 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

 

I wont re post it because I don’t want to get booted out of here..

but it was very funny, I feel sorry for anyone who was unable to enjoy it.

We also have a lot of softies

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

 

I wont re post it because I don’t want to get booted out of here..

but it was very funny, I feel sorry for anyone who was unable to enjoy it.

Life can be hard but stay firm and you’ll make it through. 

[stormtracker]

46 minutes ago, IronTy said:

That's a cool story.  

That's a cool "that's a cool story".

[stormtracker]

Time for optimism folks.  We've been all run down.  No more.  It's time to rope a good 3 to 6 or 2 to 4.   We gotta take what we can get and when we can get it.   Remember Alberta Clippers?  The only time we'll see one now is on the back of a milk carton.  The ramblings of a desperate man.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Life can be hard but stay firm and you’ll make it through. 

Thanks for that.  We are members in the same club. 

[AtlanticWx]

on the bright side, ensembles have the probability of an inch being decent! we'll prob see an inch which is enough to make me happy atl

[anotherman]

Time for optimism folks.  We've been all run down.  No more.  It's time to rope a good 3 to 6 or 2 to 4.   We gotta take what we can get and when we can get it.   Remember Alberta Clippers?  The only time we'll see one now is on the back of a milk carton.  The ramblings of a desperate man.

HAHAHAHAHAHA

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Time for optimism folks.  We've been all run down.  No more.  It's time to rope a good 3 to 6 or 2 to 4.   We gotta take what we can get and when we can get it.   Remember Alberta Clippers?  The only time we'll see one now is on the back of a milk carton.  The ramblings of a desperate man.

 

[Ji]

Time for optimism folks.  We've been all run down.  No more.  It's time to rope a good 3 to 6 or 2 to 4.   We gotta take what we can get and when we can get it.   Remember Alberta Clippers?  The only time we'll see one now is on the back of a milk carton.  The ramblings of a desperate man.

There is no good 2-4

[DE2PA]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

1 minute ago, Ji said:

There is no good 2-4

But…. my wife told me that was average and “more than enough”

[Ralph Wiggum]

36 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not an expert but I am guessing this isn't a good look if you are a Stratospheric Polar Vortex.

Fire and brimstone at 10mb!!