H2O Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Can someone explain the avocado? I missed that day in class. It means we are toast 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, H2O said: It means we are toast But I picoed that class for a reason. back into hole for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The key to this is simple. If guidance is correct this time about the TPV getting displaced and stuck under the blocking in central or eastern Canada it will suppress the SE ridge. All that “other stuff” aside the SE ridge can’t win with a TPV that close by compressing the flow. However, guidance attempted this in December then it failed miserably. Guidance attempted to phase and drop a tpv under the ridging into the 50/50 space just recently and that failed. Both times guidance picked up on this “failure to launch” around day 7. So we need to get it inside day 7 for me to start feeling highly confident. If the tpv displaces into western Canada it’s not gonna work. If it doesn’t displace at all it’s not going to work. The tpv is the key to this. It has to displace into central or eastern Canada. Ideally elongated with a lobe into the 50/50 but let’s just start with a workable pattern and go from there. i mean i dont see how this dosent happen. This is very common look in our winter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 47 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Can someone explain the avocado? I missed that day in class. Something like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 56 minutes ago, H2O said: It means we are toast Love avocado toast. With a yolky egg on top. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I’m increasingly confident that the uber warmth in Canada will begin to get scoured out starting at D6-7. After that, its TBD whether that cold air gets far enough east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Ava mentioned rain/snow for Monday, especially northern areas. EPS and GEPS don’t hate the timeframe. Not a ton of winners, but blinds aren’t closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’d like to see something good on a map whose time stamp wasn’t a three digit number starting with a 2 or 3 Same. I come in and read things are looking good and it’s a panel from the 326 hour of the GFS. :-( 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly? . not if you care more about digital snow than real snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I’m actually pretty intrigued by the 23rd potential for my latitude. I know the 95 and metro crew isn’t going to be thrilled, but the northern crew definitely has a shot at some snow during that appetizer storm. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I would certainly take my chances form NYC south in this type of pattern cross polar flow, some blocking, and a source region that's finally favorable. this is active too with the STJ open. there's always a risk for cutters, but I like this type of pattern for overrunning, which are "easier" storms that can still deliver for a larger area 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 not if you care more about digital snow than real snowWhich clown cares more about digital snow than real snow? or gets completely deflated by a clown map printed by an OP model 9 days out? We REALLY need some snow out of this next window to bring the sanity back to this forum. It’s depressing AF in here.Glad to see models converging on the idea of a Bob Chill setup for the final week of January. Been saying this all winter long - it’s our best hope to see snow. Overrunning patterns are going to work out more often than banking on 8 variables to break our way. Cold air dome + an active jet out of the SW riding waves underneath us = key to success. If we can get some blocking to slow things down, perhaps we see one of these storms blow up along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Doubtful the gfs is the same for those south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Doubtful the gfs is the same for those south of us Omg I’m shocked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 GFS should be renamed the CFS Cutter Forecast System 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 GFS only went from a a Low off of Hatteras to the Low in Buffalo.....just minor differences 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I dont know why everyone seems surprised that run over run of the models change dramatically. I mean all it takes is a little change early that amplifies down the road on the run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 CMC made a major improvement for a mixed event for the region, even ends as snow for the metro centers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 54 minutes ago, Ji said: not if you care more about digital snow than real snow That's a perfect setup for SoMD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 hours ago, Ji said: 6 hours ago, Rtd208 said: To be blunt. But at that point who cares? Winter is basically over and we are beginning meteorlogical spring. We can get huge events early march March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, Paleocene said: The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that. sets us up perfectly for the "fantasy range" rain storm on 29th coming out of the gulf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!! I am well aware of March 1993. But other then a few rogue events winter is basically over for the most part. Plus you are fighting increasing daytime temperatures and sun angle by that point as well (yes I said it, sun angle). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 GFS may be less accurate than 1 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, snowfan said: This sequence is confusing. looks at the main poster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 I probably missed this somewhere but who’s Ava? Is she a poster here? She sounds like Cher in that she has no last name. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, nj2va said: I probably missed this somewhere but who’s Ava? Is she a poster here? She sounds like Cher in that she has no last name. https://www.wbaltv.com/news-team/94bbffff-a7b9-4c36-bb2f-06667a954aa2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 lets move along 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 17, 2023 Share Posted January 17, 2023 6 minutes ago, mappy said: lets move along No clue why we get so stuck on stuff in here...like, sheesh! Maybe the snow weenie brain likes to argue or somethin', lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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