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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The key to this is simple. If guidance is correct this time about the TPV getting displaced and stuck under the blocking in central or eastern Canada it will suppress the SE ridge. All that “other stuff” aside the SE ridge can’t win with a TPV that close by compressing the flow. 
 

However, guidance attempted this in December then it failed miserably. Guidance attempted to phase and drop a tpv under the ridging into the 50/50 space just recently and that failed. Both times guidance picked up on this “failure to launch” around day 7.   
 

So we need to get it inside day 7 for me to start feeling highly confident. If the tpv displaces into western Canada it’s not gonna work. If it doesn’t displace at all it’s not going to work. The tpv is the key to this.  It has to displace into central or eastern Canada. Ideally elongated with a lobe into the 50/50 but let’s just start with a workable pattern and go from there. 

i mean i dont see how this dosent happen. This is very common look in our winter

gfs_z500a_namer_52.png

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I would certainly take my chances form NYC south in this type of pattern

cross polar flow, some blocking, and a source region that's finally favorable. this is active too with the STJ open. there's always a risk for cutters, but I like this type of pattern for overrunning, which are "easier" storms that can still deliver for a larger area

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-5317600.thumb.png.7c006c4315e923ef99c3a3b9623621b8.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_7day-5317600.thumb.png.17b586c0552c56e046bf5e44e81eadc8.png

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not if you care more about digital snow than real snow

Which clown cares more about digital snow than real snow? or gets completely deflated by a clown map printed by an OP model 9 days out? We REALLY need some snow out of this next window to bring the sanity back to this forum. It’s depressing AF in here.

Glad to see models converging on the idea of a Bob Chill setup for the final week of January. Been saying this all winter long - it’s our best hope to see snow. Overrunning patterns are going to work out more often than banking on 8 variables to break our way.

Cold air dome + an active jet out of the SW riding waves underneath us = key to success. If we can get some blocking to slow things down, perhaps we see one of these storms blow up along the coast.
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6 hours ago, Ji said:
6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:
To be blunt. But at that point who cares? Winter is basically over and we are beginning meteorlogical spring.

We can get huge events early march

March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!

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16 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that.

gfs_T2m_us_41.png

sets us up perfectly for the "fantasy range" rain storm on 29th coming out of the gulf

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8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!

I am well aware of March 1993. But other then a few rogue events winter is basically over for the most part. Plus you are fighting increasing daytime temperatures and sun angle by that point as well (yes I said it, sun angle).

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