January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Ji]

To be blunt. But at that point who cares? Winter is basically over and we are beginning meteorlogical spring.

We can get huge events early march

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

To be blunt. But at that point who cares? Winter is basically over and we are beginning meteorlogical spring.

Weenies care

[Ji]

Big changes for the 25th 26th

Northern stream sped up allowing cold air to drag in first

[Ji]

Northern stream sped up allowing cold air to drag in first

Amazing...went from a warm cutter to a cold suppressed and missed us with snow in both scenarios...

Yippee kyay

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Amazing...went from a warm cutter to a cold suppressed and missed us with snow in both scenarios...

Yippee kyay

That is the sort of evolution we need though to get something to track underneath with cold in place.

[Ji]

That is the sort of evolution we need though to get something to track underneath with cold in place.

Storm is super juicy too. Euro was a close call. Ensembles had been hinting at this some

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…

NC/VA for the win.

[anotherman]

The GFS Is like a kid who didn’t study choosing C on every question.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Looks like the Roger Smith storm brewing late in the GFS run.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the Roger Smith storm brewing late in the GFS run.

Pattern gets alot colder by next weekend 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the Roger Smith storm brewing late in the GFS run.

Love me some LR op digital fantasy

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Love me some LR op digital fantasy

I’d take the southern slider if it meant we got that. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

I’d take the southern slider if it meant we got that. 

Keep throwing chances with the displaced TPV and 50/50 signature in the MR/LR with stj action and eventually we will cash in. Patience will pay off soon enough...confidence is increasing.

[CAPE]

In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.

 

[AtlanticWx]

6z gefs, the 26th/27th is our best chance the next few days

[Bob Chill]

VERY nice 48hr ens height trends. I don't give a single turd if d10 is a swva special (I'll send pics) because we aren't snowing until we are compressing and flattening to our east and north. Anyone who disagrees must really like the last 6 weeks 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

VERY nice 48hr ens height trends. I don't give a single turd if d10 is a swva special (I'll send pics) because we aren't snowing until we are compressing and flattening to our east and north. Anyone who disagrees must really like the last 6 weeks 

 

As a side bar, great to see your posts in here daily the past several days. Refreshing.

[H2O]

Bob Chill honking is the only thing I pay attention to. Not snow in Japan

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the Roger Smith storm brewing late in the GFS run.

Thought I heard some jaws music in the distance when I got to the final frames of the GFS.  

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As a side bar, great to see your posts in here daily the past several days. Refreshing.

I've been active a few times but the leads were long and nothing has come close so mostly quiet this year.

Seeing confluent flow not only building in strength on ens but also staying put or speeding up in time is the best thing we've seen this year by far inside of d10. When the WAR and SE ridge have steered every single storm to our NW unabated, it gets really simple what to track and root for.... Confluence hammer!

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 Confluence hammer!

 

[Bob Chill]

32 minutes ago, H2O said:

Bob Chill honking is the only thing I pay attention to. Not snow in Japan

For now, things look like they want to shift into a pattern that has fewer problems than we've seen. Good time of year and the east in general is waaay behind. Little out of the basement rally would feel like a blizzard

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looks like the Roger Smith storm brewing late in the GFS run.

6z GEFS. Has that look..

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’d like to see something good on a map whose time stamp wasn’t a three digit number starting with a 2 or 3

[anotherman]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d like to see something good on a map whose time stamp wasn’t a three digit number starting with a 2 or 3

Yeah that'd be great.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d like to see something good on a map whose time stamp wasn’t a three digit number starting with a 2 or 3

The 23rd maybe. Doesn't look that 'good' to me at this point, but given your location it may be more interesting.

[psuhoffman]

The key to this is simple. If guidance is correct this time about the TPV getting displaced and stuck under the blocking in central or eastern Canada it will suppress the SE ridge. All that “other stuff” aside the SE ridge can’t win with a TPV that close by compressing the flow. 
 

However, guidance attempted this in December then it failed miserably. Guidance attempted to phase and drop a tpv under the ridging into the 50/50 space just recently and that failed. Both times guidance picked up on this “failure to launch” around day 7.   
 

So we need to get it inside day 7 for me to start feeling highly confident. If the tpv displaces into western Canada it’s not gonna work. If it doesn’t displace at all it’s not going to work. The tpv is the key to this.  It has to displace into central or eastern Canada. Ideally elongated with a lobe into the 50/50 but let’s just start with a workable pattern and go from there. 

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.

 

Can someone explain the avocado?  I missed that day in class.

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 23rd maybe. Doesn't look that 'good' to me at this point, but given your location it may be more interesting.

Ava mentioned rain/snow for Monday, especially northern areas.