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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384?  That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly.  

We all know p28 will verify

I read in one of my weather textbooks that modeling at distance is such a crapshoot because even something like a tiny rounding difference between two identical initializations in the computer can extrapolate to completely different outcomes in the long range.

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21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

That’s a hopium outcome, but I still suspect at least 2/3 of Feb will be warm. This nina is stubborn af, and ninos aren’t necessarily cold winters. My guess right now would be the first and last weeks of Feb will be cold, with march still being a wildcard.

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

Yeah I mean this thing ain't acted like a nina all winter...when Chill said the winter had "spoken" I was like...what the frickle is it saying? Lol Despite ground result being 0 inches so far, it's been a lot of mixed signals...particularly as we head through January here. Not sure anybody can be certain yet where it's gonna go given what you just mentioned.

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Yeah I mean this thing ain't acted like a nina all winter...when Chill said the winter had "spoken" I was like...what the frickle is it saying? Lol Despite ground result being 0 inches so far, it's been a lot of mixed signals...particularly as we head through January here. Not sure anybody can be certain yet where it's gonna go given what you just mentioned.
This has been a Nina winter. No doubt About it. Warm wet followed by short loved cold. Lack of pna...cutters...+10 in January...etc
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1 minute ago, Ji said:
31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Yeah I mean this thing ain't acted like a nina all winter...when Chill said the winter had "spoken" I was like...what the frickle is it saying? Lol Despite ground result being 0 inches so far, it's been a lot of mixed signals...particularly as we head through January here. Not sure anybody can be certain yet where it's gonna go given what you just mentioned.

This has been a Nina winter. No doubt About it. Warm wet followed by short loved cold. Lack of pna...cutters...+10 in January...etc

Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

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8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

December was cold, at least relatively.

 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

December was a bit below average temp wise

I see...but ain't January usually cold? I mean the last few nina Januarys have been, anyway.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:
I see...but ain't January usually cold? I mean the last few nina Januarys have been, anyway.

They can go either way...there is no rule. If dec and Jan were always cold...we would be cheering for a Nina every year

Well even when cold the tendency for a trough west/ridge east makes Ninas especially prone to cold dry/warm wet syndrome.  

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