BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 26 minutes ago, Ji said: if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live. You know this. Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, Heisy said: No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region. Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about… . Ffs those lower heights better not take on the appearance and color of an avocado on that other site's map template. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live. You know this. Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. You also said the 6z gefs mean was a torch thru the end of the month earlier so there's that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live. You know this. Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. it wasnt a car topper.....it was a huge storm that was suppose to miss us but the storm had elite potential not car topper potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 im sick and tired of being funny. For the next 2 weeks, your going to get a stream of serious meteorogical posts from me 6 3 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Maybe one of the best EPS runs we’ve had over the last few weeks for the Jan 27+ period. It does seem like there will be a cutter day 9 but then the cold air is finally ushered in. -EPO, some Atlantic ridging, TPV sitting in a good spot, gotta get it under 7-9 days though . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: it wasnt a car topper.....it was a huge storm that was suppose to miss us but the storm had elite potential not car topper potential He was referencing Bob Ryan's forecast right before the destruction was imminent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: im sick and tired of being funny. For the next 2 weeks, your going to get a stream of serious meteorogical posts from me You realize this post is funny af right? .... wait a minute... I feel a treble hook in my lip... brb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He was referencing Bob Ryan's forecast right before the destruction was imminent Yes. 1-2 turned into 12-24. Awesome for 2000. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You also said the 6z gefs mean was a torch thru the end of the month earlier so there's that. I did. I did say that. I feel like the SER will win out ultimately. If I’m wrong we all win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I did. I did say that. I feel like the SER will win out ultimately. If I’m wrong we all win. who's gonna win, strong TPV lobe(s) or a weak SE ridge? obviously the se ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 27 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I did. I did say that. I feel like the SER will win out ultimately. If I’m wrong we all win. Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies Would we all be surprised if this triggers a PD3 storm that puts this winter in better standing? I would. But one can dream. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Would we all be surprised if this triggers a PD3 storm that puts this winter in better standing? I would. But one can dream. what's pd3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 42 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live. You know this. Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. Jan 3rd of last year is probably the closest we've been to a a reverse bust of that magnitude in some time, considering that the Euro had 1-3" for areas that would end up getting 8-14" just 36 hours later, but not on the same scale as a KU that snuck up 6-12hrs before onset.. that will never happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 16 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GramaxRefugee Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: .... Guidance isn't perfect.... Rather an understatement, I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Can you help a weenie out? Is that showing a TPV split? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: what's pd3? Presidents day. We’ve had two storms that day, pd1 79 and pd2 03 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Solution Man said: We are on the plus side of the 35 yard with Taylor Heinicke at the helm….what could go wrong? Could be worse. It's Hundley .... 1st and goal from the 2. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said: what's pd3? Presidents Day 3 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Presidents day. We’ve had two storms that day, pd1 79 and pd2 03 we can hope! imo we could end up w/ a 2008-09 type winter where we get one snow event late jan, an SSWE and a good storm in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 WB 12Z Ensembles….look good for later part of January. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents. You are right. That was a big one and really close. I went to bed thinking 1-2…but you are right. I am a little jaded this winter. Some snow will cure that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 23 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Jan 3rd of last year is probably the closest we've been to a a reverse bust of that magnitude in some time, considering that the Euro had 1-3" for areas that would end up getting 8-14" just 36 hours later, but not on the same scale as a KU that snuck up 6-12hrs before onset.. that will never happen again. It might. Ralph is right never say never. Unlikely maybe but we probably said that back then too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 And this what the models are showing 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said: what's pd3? A fantasy that puts the Penthouse Forum to shame 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Betting window open folks 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Betting window open folks NOGAPS. +4000 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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