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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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26 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! 

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

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7 minutes ago, Heisy said:


No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region.

Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least

ee9d6106dac1dc0f1145d3a43bf2d4a4.jpg
b36d60a7e971eb503d5d10f7ba6f0cfe.jpg
Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about…
abb4b4e601447c06d9d0ac05c910ad0c.jpg


.

Ffs those lower heights better not take on the appearance and color of an avocado on that other site's map template.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

it wasnt a car topper.....it was a huge storm that was suppose to miss us but the storm had elite potential not car topper potential

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27 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did. I did say that.  I feel like the SER will win out ultimately.  If I’m wrong we all win.  

Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents.

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42 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

Jan 3rd of last year is probably the closest we've been to a a reverse bust of that magnitude in some time, considering that the Euro had 1-3" for areas that would end up getting 8-14" just 36 hours later, but not on the same scale as a KU that snuck up 6-12hrs before onset.. that will never happen again.

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22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents.

You are right. That was a big one and really close. I went to bed thinking 1-2…but you are right.  I am a little jaded this winter.  Some snow will cure that 

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23 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Jan 3rd of last year is probably the closest we've been to a a reverse bust of that magnitude in some time, considering that the Euro had 1-3" for areas that would end up getting 8-14" just 36 hours later, but not on the same scale as a KU that snuck up 6-12hrs before onset.. that will never happen again.

It might. Ralph is right never say never. Unlikely maybe but we probably said that back then too.  

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