H2O Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 We can’t even get tropical storms here in winter. This place sucks for weather 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z icon. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 12z icon . I think most of us would sign no questions asked right now. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 I think most of us would sign no questions asked right now.Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction In all seriousness, that’s our winter so we just have to embrace it. There’s no low complexity events walking through the door until we have a cold source capable of delivering. For most…just getting on the board in a meaningful way would be a huge win heading into peak climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 wow no posts in an hour on jan 16 during the 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 hour ago, Heisy said: 12z icon . That Icon track for that storm has been pretty consistent hasn’t it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, DE2PA said: That Icon track for that storm has been pretty consistent hasn’t it? Don't put too much stock in it--it's the ICON, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DE2PA Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Don't put too much stock in it--it's the ICON, lol Of course. But EURO, GFS, and CMC are also all different from one another during this period. Just taking note that the ICON has like this particular storm track over the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, DE2PA said: Of course. But EURO, GFS, and CMC are also all different from one another during this period. Just taking note that the ICON has like this particular storm track over the last several runs. Yeah I gotcha. Man we ain't gotten somethin' to slide under us like that in forever--would be nice, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I gotcha. Man we ain't gotten somethin' to slide under us like that in forever--would be nice, lol and when its sliden below us..there has been no cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Imo only, best look this year for snow d10 on gefs. I've been watching like everyone but kept seeing the same stoopid tendency to pop a ridge in front of every stoopid shortwave... trend has shifted more confluent on basically all guidance. Big storm hunters won't like this setup too much because upside is limited. Personally, sitting at zero makes any upside at all pretty enticing.... Nice mean jet panel VERY nice mean 850 wind panel... we have not had this type of flow leading into any event... Any kind of mid level flow with a north vector can overcome temp flaws. This year it seems like an elusive requirement Connect the mid and upper flow in your brain with these panels and you have every ingredient on the table for a 3-6" TN valley overrunner with WNW flow in the mids... heh... wut tf does that even mean? Lol 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about Yeah even to my novice eyes guidance seems to be sniffing out some kind of shift in pattern (how long it lasts who knows). I mean for once you're seeing that dang se ridge finally relax some and the look seems to be moving up in time. Hope we can get SOMETHING outta that...Yeah I'm a big storm hunter, but given this winter...just gettin' on the frickin' board would be better than where we've been! We shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thing (got a bit of a high to the north this run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: 12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thingy Not far from the Icon. I’d take it in a second. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, WxUSAF said: Not far from the Icon. I’d take it in a second. Absolutely--just get on the board, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thingy (got a bit of a high to the north this run)So each model handling interaction between NS and the main shortwave differently. Euro misses phase, but keeps it far enough E to take advantage of some cold, gfs phased it, cmc misses phase but keeps shortwave well west. Icon has the best interaction obv . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily . for sure bro..we could use a cutter this season 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I’ll take it 15 days out…seems like a lock to me. I’m all in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: 15 days out…seems like a lock to me. I’m all in We are on the plus side of the 35 yard with Taylor Heinicke at the helm….what could go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 La Nina is on its death bed. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence As long as we don't start tracking avocados again when the TPV starts wobbling around and gets displaced. Don't think we will this time around. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ji said: if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! I'll take a 10 hour window at this point brother. I think many here would tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I'll take a 10 hour window at this point brother. I think many here would tbh. 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: As long as we don't start tracking avocados again when the TPV starts wobbling around and gets displaced. Don't think we will this time around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 for sure bro..we could use a cutter this seasonNo, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region. Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at leastHere is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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