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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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2 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction

In all seriousness, that’s our winter so we just have to embrace it. There’s no low complexity events walking through the door until we have a cold source capable of delivering.

For most…just getting on the board in a meaningful way would be a huge win heading into peak climo.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't put too much stock in it--it's the ICON, lol

Of course. But EURO, GFS, and CMC are also all different from one another during this period. Just taking note that the ICON has like this particular storm track over the last several runs.

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3 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Of course. But EURO, GFS, and CMC are also all different from one another during this period. Just taking note that the ICON has like this particular storm track over the last several runs.

Yeah I gotcha. Man we ain't gotten somethin' to slide under us like that in forever--would be nice, lol

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Imo only, best look this year for snow d10 on gefs. I've been watching like everyone but kept seeing the same stoopid tendency to pop a ridge in front of every stoopid shortwave... trend has shifted more confluent on basically all guidance. 

Big storm hunters won't like this setup too much because upside is limited. Personally, sitting at zero makes any upside at all pretty enticing....

Nice mean jet panel 

gfs-ens_uv250_us_43.png

 

VERY nice mean 850 wind panel... we have not had this type of flow leading into any event... Any kind of mid level flow with a north vector can overcome temp flaws. This year it seems like an elusive requirement

 

gfs-ens_mslp_uv850_us_41.png

 

Connect the mid and upper flow in your brain with these panels and you have every ingredient on the table for a 3-6" TN valley overrunner with WNW flow in the mids... heh... wut tf does that even mean? Lol

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_41.png

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_37.png

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Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

Yeah even to my novice eyes guidance seems to be sniffing out some kind of shift in pattern (how long it lasts who knows). I mean for once you're seeing that dang se ridge finally relax some and the look seems to be moving up in time. Hope we can get SOMETHING outta that...Yeah I'm a big storm hunter, but given this winter...just gettin' on the frickin' board would be better than where we've been! We shall see...

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12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thingy (got a bit of a high to the north this run)

So each model handling interaction between NS and the main shortwave differently. Euro misses phase, but keeps it far enough E to take advantage of some cold, gfs phased it, cmc misses phase but keeps shortwave well west. Icon has the best interaction obv


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8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily

9853ed1b4a9e41550a83245d7465b7f7.jpg


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for sure bro..we could use a cutter this season

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55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.3d7b197b90ff67f057ff776f6fa55f78.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.117cb4c37d5dad194adaa3e317589473.png

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5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.3d7b197b90ff67f057ff776f6fa55f78.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.117cb4c37d5dad194adaa3e317589473.png

if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! 

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13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.3d7b197b90ff67f057ff776f6fa55f78.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-5252800.thumb.png.117cb4c37d5dad194adaa3e317589473.png

As long as we don't start tracking avocados again when the TPV starts wobbling around and gets displaced. Don't think we will this time around.

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! 

I'll take a 10 hour window at this point brother. I think many here would tbh.

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for sure bro..we could use a cutter this season

No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region.

Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least

ee9d6106dac1dc0f1145d3a43bf2d4a4.jpg
b36d60a7e971eb503d5d10f7ba6f0cfe.jpg
Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about…
abb4b4e601447c06d9d0ac05c910ad0c.jpg


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