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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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The ICON tries to make something happen with wave #2. Boundary doesn’t push far enough south on this run for most of us verbatim (mainly an interior special) but minute details this far out are pretty irrelevant.

The chance is definitely there, but we’ll need a lot to go right to cash in.

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Looks like GEFS is colder
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Decent amount of agreement among models regarding there being snow chances in the window from the 23rd thru end of the month. Nice to see the potential within 7 days, instead of 10-14+

Could see a scenario where wave 1 (mostly rain) drags the boundary south, creating snow cover to our NW, with a possible second wave tracking shortly behind it with a fresh airmass to tap into. Especially if wave 1 acts as a quasi-50/50 to slow things down with proper spacing between waves. The expected -EPO and resulting relaxation of the hostile PAC could be the key ingredient we need to finally see a legit chance at snow as we’d finally get a small break from the very progressive flow we’ve dealt with all winter.

I’m also not entirely sold on this idea of a wall to wall torch in February either. I’m fairly positive we see a warm up early on, as the PAC has ultimately won out all season long, but you can also see how we could get a “reload” of the pattern if a few things were to break our way. It’d be an uphill battle though and the chance of failure would certainly be pretty high leading in, as we’d have to bank on a mixture of good timing and some luck to make it work.

This winter has been ROUGH, but a decent second half would go a long way toward bringing some sanity back to this board.
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The period beyond the 25th still looks pretty favorable with colder air in place and SE ridge suppressed, and indications of multiple waves moving along the boundary. The 23rd is still worth watching mainly for those further north.

Nice h5 look on the EPS here. It has a more prominent -NAO and a somewhat colder look than the the GEFS.

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12 hours ago, Mercurial said:

it's been a crap winter in sapporo proper.  They've missed out on many of the snowbands that have hit Otaru, Iwamizawa etc.  For that matter, the whole of Hokkaido just torched late last week, temps got into the mid 40s for two days which is quite unusual.

Looks like they are making up for it now.

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ok also wet.  

Might be, but if you are looking at the mean be careful taking surface temps too literally. A range of possibilities for around the 27th on the current GEFS, including not much of anything and cold with precip suppressed south.

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eta- 6 hour panel; there are a few with snow preceding this timeframe.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

i do have a good feeling ab this pattern just gotta hope things continue to trend better

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

Haha Yeah I mean...for me, I'm just happy to see the dang se ridge FINALLY trending weaker. I mean that's been the main issue so far, right? I'll happily roll the dice with anything that ain't that, lol

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37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha Yeah I mean...for me, I'm just happy to see the dang se ridge FINALLY trending weaker. I mean that's been the main issue so far, right? I'll happily roll the dice with anything that ain't that, lol

I thought the main issue this winter was climate change. I’ll see myself out now. :lol:

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

If we are brutally honest... there has never really been a chance this year. Hostile everywhere around us. I don't think we've "wasted" anything because it was waste to begin with. Lol

I like the implications for the end of the month and beyond but until that cold actually settles in, there isn't much worth slicing and dicing. I think it's safe to say this year, we aren't getting snow until cold makes its presence well known

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we are brutally honest... there has never really been a chance this year. Hostile everywhere around us. I don't think we've "wasted" anything because it was waste to begin with. Lol

I like the implications for the end of the month and beyond but until that cold actually settles in, there isn't much worth slicing and dicing. I think it's safe to say this year, we aren't getting snow until cold makes its presence well known

Step number 1... get the cold air here first.

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