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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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2 hours ago, Ji said:
2 hours ago, IronTy said:
Damn the Atlantic is hot.  Soon to be sighted - large marine reptiles taking over the seas again alongside skinny whales with no need for blubber.

Warm atlantic is always a poor excuse of non snow...if the track is good and we have strong hp...it will snow

Exactly. This is what I keep telling people.  If the storm track continues to set up to our west with transient HP systems its not going to snow....  Until this changes, there is no reason to worry about water temps or warmer background temps.

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3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Guys,  please hear me out. This climate talk has really got to stop.  I don’t mind if you drop it in as an observation that directly relates to your post, it’s the tangential nature that goes too far. Stop. Please?  There’s a whole ass TWO forums where you can discuss the subject until your eyes pop out.  I’m strongly against politics or anything political on the weather side. Let’s bond over our common insanity regarding weather, ok?  So I ask (for now) that we adhere to this and leave the political and contentious shit where it belongs.  Thanks, you filthy animals.  

BUMP

 

Please, everyone. Please. 

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13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Roger Smith says massive overrunning event first week of Feb then spring. 

I could see that.  Winter being a week or 2.   But as sure as I can be April will be cold and muddy and we will be saying where was this pattern in Feb.  

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18 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Looks like a prime set up for a zonal overrunning events just so long as the cold air can set up and press down from the north I think we would be in business from January 27th to about February 8th or so. 

The 7th looks more likely based on the current squirrel population

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38 minutes ago, Ji said:

I think psu or someone talked about 99-00 winter analog which had all our winter basically in late January

It was pretty low in my analogs but what I said was it did register at least as somewhat similar and it was the best example of a Nina that started dreadful and ended ok. Actually it was the ONLY example so I said let’s root for that. 

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2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

the entire japan stuff was that. not everything is about you. 

No the Japan stuff was about warm SST impacts.  No one said a word whether that was permanent or cyclical or anything regarding cause.  We have to be able to discuss pattern drivers like SSTs, PDO,AMO and such. Those things are cyclical but also could be affected by you know what. But they are integral to a pattern discussion unless you literally want no analysis and this just to be people posting snow maps and “it’s happening” memes. 

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You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore. 
 
Beautiful day at snowshoe 
G2cSiT1.jpg
ClkXIxB.jpg
mG4lbzP.jpg
Looks like they have a 2 inches on the ground?
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the 27th setup is actually quite simple, j a wave sliding along a boundary. the complex part ab it is where the boundary would setup as a change in the two or three storms before it and whether or not they trend weaker or stronger could mean less/more cold air ergo setting up the boundary somewhere else

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