January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[cbmclean]

SPV doing some interesting contortions on the GFS suite in the long range.  No signs of collapse yet to my eyes.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Which is what I said. It is far from ideal, but how do we know it won't actually be better than advertised? A bit stronger ridge poking into the NAO space/stronger TPV influence and the SE ridge is further suppressed. That would make a big difference. To be clear, I am not hunting anything close to a KU- that is completely unrealistic. Give me a decent wave riding the boundary for 3-6. I know your goal is reaching somewhere close to your climo avg of 40", and you sit at zero currently. That sucks. Maybe lower your expectations significantly. Some snow is way better than none. The advertised pattern offers chances for frozen in our region.

This is another two things can be true. Also some are wired differently. I remember in high school I scored a goal late in a game we were down 5-0 and some teammates wanted me to celebrate and I was like “no just put the ball on the fucking spot and let’s get this embarrassment over”. 
I know that’s not a perfect analogy but I’m doing two things at once here. Yes I’m the moment I’d enjoy a 4” snowstorm. But I’m also really hopeful I’m dead wrong and the people saying this is 100% bad luck and we’re about to come storming back and restore our climo are right. Im hunting for evidence. One 4” storm to bring me to 10% of normal isn’t even a drop in the bucket wrt that. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You think this is a 'close the blinds' look? Come on dude.

Far from. Only takes one good CAA push as a wave slides along the boundary. Season has shown it isn't likely but don't give up yet.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

About 3 feet behind where we should be at this time of year in the Syracuse snowbelt. This string of awful winters here is definitely going to bring down the average.

The week around Christmas was great but other than that its been a frustrating Winter here. This shit winter aside, the Midwest does just fine with snow. After many excellent winters in the 2000s-2010s, a snow weenie thinks an average Winter is bad, so it's no surprise so many lose it in an actual bad winter. Snowfall averages have increased in much of the Great Lakes, including outside the snowbelts. I know very little about the mid Atlantic climo but I just cannot attribute their record snow drought to anything other than bad luck. Especially when almost any given year you hear about a snowstorm hitting a warm climate place that rarely sees snow.

[Ji]

I'm going with the jma

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Far from. Only takes one good CAA push as a wave slides along the boundary. Season has shown it isn't likely but don't give up yet.

look at the 850 anomalies. This isn’t as close as you are painting it for our area.  Unless we just want some front end freezing rain. 
 

[Ji]

MSP has 15 inches in January....and there is still 17 days left lol. In December they recorded, 19 inches. I am not sure what their average is but i am sure nobody there is crying about Global Warming taking their snow. Maybe next year...when DC gets all the snow and they are high and dry haha

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

MSP has 15 inches in January....and there is still 17 days left lol. In December they recorded, 19 inches. I am not sure what their average is but i am sure nobody there is crying about Global Warming taking their snow. Maybe next year...when DC gets all the snow and they are high and dry haha

chicago is struggling though...Madison, WI had 15 inches of snow in Dec...

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

look at the 850 anomalies. This isn’t as close as you are painting it for our area.  Unless we just want some front end freezing rain. 
 

we can snow with this...its also a mean...maybe a few members are so deep with the SW Trough that its skewing things.

 

[Ji]

this map is looking pretty La Nina for an el Nino Winter. But snow has fallen in the United States. Just not in our back yard unfortunately. 

[Ji]

its gonna snow on January 27-28 and you will deal with it

 

[TSG]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This is another two things can be true. Also some are wired differently. I remember in high school I scored a goal late in a game we were down 5-0 and some teammates wanted me to celebrate and I was like “no just put the ball on the fucking spot and let’s get this embarrassment over”. 
I know that’s not a perfect analogy but I’m doing two things at once here. Yes I’m the moment I’d enjoy a 4” snowstorm. But I’m also really hopeful I’m dead wrong and the people saying this is 100% bad luck and we’re about to come storming back and restore our climo are right. Im hunting for evidence. One 4” storm to bring me to 10% of normal isn’t even a drop in the bucket wrt that. 

Seems to me the disconnect comes from people's inability to represent/entertain a view that they themselves don't want to be true or to see how anyone else possibly could. Those with a heavy science background know this is just how you should approach these things... it's paramount to keeping your personal biases in check and actually conducting useful analyses. I see a lot of responses aimed at your posts that seem to come from a somewhat defensive position, like you are somehow attacking them, when you're just stating "this is what I'm seeing, let's discuss". I've always assumed this board's members were primarily math and science folks but that doesn't seem to be the case.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

Seems to me the disconnect comes from people's inability to represent/entertain a view that they themselves don't want to be true or to see how anyone else possibly could. Those with a heavy science background know this is just how you should approach these things... it's paramount to keeping your personal biases in check and actually conducting useful analyses. I see a lot of responses aimed at your posts that seem to come from a somewhat defensive position, like you are somehow attacking them, when you're just stating "this is what I'm seeing, let's discuss". I've always assumed this board's members were primarily were math and science folks but that doesn't seem to be the case.

no--the primary board member is a weenie with a lack of a social life and a weird obsession with music and frozen water

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

its gonna snow on January 27-28 and you will deal with it

 

Canadian cold bias.

[TSG]

Just now, Ji said:

no--the primary board member is a weenie with a lack of a social life and a weird obsession with music and frozen water

It wasn't always that way. It's certainly a lot different in here now than when I joined in 2014. There's a lot of good posters that have abandoned the forum because of the constant garbage

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, TSG said:

It wasn't always that way. It's certainly a lot different in here now than when I joined in 2014. There's a lot of good posters that have abandoned the forum because of the constant garbage

I have actually been hearing internet forums are dying all over.  Note sure why.  Maybe we should set up a group Twitter feed.

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

its gonna snow on January 27-28 and you will deal with it

 

I'm with ya Ji!! (piano and guitar are in harmony this time ) Been liking this period for awhile...of course I could be biased cause of the 'nac...BUT any favorable shift you'd think would take about that long to produce something (even if the window is brief) We shall see...

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, TSG said:

It wasn't always that way. It's certainly a lot different in here now than when I joined in 2014. There's a lot of good posters that have abandoned the forum because of the constant garbage

it actually got much better...when i first joined the board...having a real Met post in the forum was crazy.... got everyone so excited.... like seeing a celebrity or something. Many of the other posters were just kids who would cut and paste their NWS forecast into the thread. Now there are legit 10+ super knowledgeable posters in here that drive the board. I think its much better than it used to be lol

 

plus the board in the beginning was not local. We all shared the same threads with New England/NYC and the philly weenies. That got to be super annoying

[clskinsfan]

23 minutes ago, TSG said:

It wasn't always that way. It's certainly a lot different in here now than when I joined in 2014. There's a lot of good posters that have abandoned the forum because of the constant garbage

I mean lets be honest. We have been in three year Nina hell. The people that have disappeared are smart. Because we are basically screwed.  And I see nothing on the model runs to make me think that is gonna change anytime soon. The whole "base state" stuff could be right. But until the Nina goes away we have no way to know. It has been never ending Pac puke. 

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I mean lets be honest. We have been in three year Nina hell. The people that have disappeared are smart. Because we are basically screwed.  And I see nothing on the model runs to make me think that is gonna change anytime soon. The whole "base state" stuff could be right. But until the Nina goes away we have no way to know. It has been never ending Pac puke. 

It's on the way out, but difficult to say if late winter will behave any differently than typical. Next winter perhaps we shall see.

[TSG]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

it actually got much better...when i first joined the board...having a real Met post in the forum was crazy.... got everyone so excited.... like seeing a celebrity or something. Many of the other posters were just kids who would cut and paste their NWS forecast into the thread. Now there are legit 10+ super knowledgeable posters in here that drive the board. I think its much better than it used to be lol

 

plus the board in the beginning was not local. We all shared the same threads with New England/NYC and the philly weenies. That got to be super annoying

but... haven't you been here since the EasternWx days? so that's like 15-20 years ago?

That was ancient history by the time I was getting involved in here. I'm specifically talking about the period from 2012-2015/6ish. That was the best form this subforum has ever been in imo. Maybe it was just because times were relatively good, but I remember pattern discussions being a lot more in depth and fruitful. I learned a ton from just lurking and reading, I can't really imagine doing that now. It would at least be a lot harder to do.

[Ji]

Garbage is like is what turns alot of people off. When this happens...ill leave the board lol

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, TSG said:

but... haven't you been here since the EasternWx days? so that's like 15-20 years ago?

That was ancient history by the time I was getting involved in here. I'm specifically talking about the period from 2012-2015/6ish. That was the best form this subforum has ever been in imo.

I was here in the easternwx days. 

I think the discussions we see today, occasional whining/trolling aside, are much better than in the past. 

Most non-met posters here can understand h5 maps and can interpret soundings, and contribute a lot of value to the discussion. 

Compare that with 15-20 years ago, when most non-met posters would just spam threads with “how much for Philly?” questions or when they’ll see snow in their backyards. 

[Heisy]

Looks like tpv phasing S this run so could lead to better things on the OP down the line, “could”




.

[WxUSAF]

Everyone please. This conversation has been beat to death. Start a separate thread if you want to keep talking about this.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Garbage is like is what turns alot of people off. When this happens...ill leave the board lol

I will probably get blasted for this but science has become a religion to some. When the entire goal of science used to be debating differing opinions. Now if you differ from the main stream you get cancelled. That isnt science. That is conforming to the status quo. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Everyone please. This conversation has been beat to death. Start a separate thread if you want to keep talking about this.

Which convo?

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Which convo?

The only conversation that’s been happening for days lol. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I will probably get blasted for this but science has become a religion to some. When the entire goal of science used to be debating differing opinions. Now if you differ from the main stream you get cancelled. That isnt science. That is conforming to the status quo. 

Scientific debate does occur- among scientists. No one cares about Ji's opinion lol. Facts matter. Truthiness- not so much.

[Scraff]

Checks in to see @JI has taken over. I’m all in now.  I’ll keep drinking and praying for snow flurries…