January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Two things can be true. 
1) It will snow again and there will be another HECS. 
2) we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history and lately it’s been a lot harder to get snow than it used to be  
Those two things don’t have to start a back and forth everytime one or the other is brought up. They can coexist. 

Who is we? Usually when one area dosnet get snow another area flourishes

This sub forum region. There are a few exceptions, most notably the coastal regions that keep taking advantage of the bomb cyclones that I do think are associated with the warmer waters but do anyone west of of bay no good.  Some higher elevation locations have done more respectable too by still taking advantage of some of the marginal events that failed along 95.  But the vast majority of the population of this forum are in a drought.  Even up here it’s been really bad. Ya I’ve had more but my avg is 3x higher than DC.  Everyone makes a huge deal that I hit 50” 2 years ago but that’s only slightly above avg here and the year before was the worst season in 50 years here, and we had 3 years below avg preceding that and last year was also way below avg.  One slightly above avg season surrounded by 6 below avg years isn’t doing ok. 
 

If you mean other parts of the world who cares. It doesn’t matter to us at all that Tahoe is getting 200”. That has no correlation to our snow. They get snow from completely different mechanisms than we do. A larger scale pattern shift that’s bad for us could be good for other places. I can’t stand when people bring up snow somewhere else that has no correlation to our climo as if that somehow has something predictive to say about our snow prospects. 

[Ji]

This sub forum region. There are a few exceptions, most notably the coastal regions that keep taking advantage of the bomb cyclones that I do think are associated with the warmer waters but do anyone west of of bay no good.  Some higher elevation locations have done more respectable too by still taking advantage of some of the marginal events that failed along 95.  But the vast majority of the population of this forum are in a drought.  Even up here it’s been really bad. Ya I’ve had more but my avg is 3x higher than DC.  Everyone makes a huge deal that I hit 50” 2 years ago but that’s only slightly above avg here and the year before was the worst season in 50 years here, and we had 3 years below avg preceding that and last year was also way below avg.  One slightly above avg season surrounded by 6 below avg years isn’t doing ok. 
 
If you mean other parts of the world who cares. It doesn’t matter to us at all that Tahoe is getting 200”. That has no correlation to our snow. They get snow from completely different mechanisms than we do. A larger scale pattern shift that’s bad for us could be good for other places. I can’t stand when people bring up snow somewhere else that has no correlation to our climo as if that somehow has something predictive to say about our snow prospects. 

Not true at....when the west/Midwest is seeing above average snow and were in shutout modre...its all about the pattern. The whole country can't be cold and snow

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Two things can be true. 
1) It will snow again and there will be another HECS. 
2) we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history and lately it’s been a lot harder to get snow than it used to be  

Those two things don’t have to start a back and forth everytime one or the other is brought up. They can coexist. 

Well I can't speak for everybody, but...one reason it may start a back and forth is because we are already suffering in a crappy pattern--that’s the here and now reality. So now here comes someone not just occasionally, but EVERY day every post remind us it's not just crappy now but will be crappy in the future. I don't dispute your stats and I don't have THAT many arguments...but again we are suffering here, and the EVERYDAY reminder of a potential crappy future ain't helping the vibe in here like at all. The crappy present is enough to deal with on it's own, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This sub forum region. There are a few exceptions, most notably the coastal regions that keep taking advantage of the bomb cyclones that I do think are associated with the warmer waters but do anyone west of of bay no good.  Some higher elevation locations have done more respectable too by still taking advantage of some of the marginal events that failed along 95.  But the vast majority of the population of this forum are in a drought.  Even up here it’s been really bad. Ya I’ve had more but my avg is 3x higher than DC.  Everyone makes a huge deal that I hit 50” 2 years ago but that’s only slightly above avg here and the year before was the worst season in 50 years here, and we had 3 years below avg preceding that and last year was also way below avg.  One slightly above avg season surrounded by 6 below avg years isn’t doing ok. 
 
If you mean other parts of the world who cares. It doesn’t matter to us at all that Tahoe is getting 200”. That has no correlation to our snow. They get snow from completely different mechanisms than we do. A larger scale pattern shift that’s bad for us could be good for other places. I can’t stand when people bring up snow somewhere else that has no correlation to our climo as if that somehow has something predictive to say about our snow prospects. 

Not true at....when the west/Midwest is seeing above average snow and were in shutout modre...its all about the pattern. The whole country can't be cold and snow

This. Now I struggle with this concept too. Now...for those areas with elevation, it makes sense. But a possible warmer base state don't make sense when Seattle got more snow than we did a few winters ago. Or when Texas froze while we torched. The combo of things getting warmer yet that happening I can't quite square. Not saying things aren't warmer, I just don't get why places even with our middling elevation have done snow and cold more often than we have the last 7 years.

[Dendrimer77]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I can't speak for everybody, but...one reason it may start a back and forth is because we are already suffering in a crappy pattern--that’s the here and now reality. So now here comes someone not just occasionally, but EVERY day every post remind us it's not just crappy now but will be crappy in the future. I don't dispute your stats and I don't have THAT many arguments...but again we are suffering here, and the EVERYDAY reminder of a potential crappy future ain't helping the vibe in here like at all.

Understand your point of view, but we shouldn't just burry our heads in the sand and pretend everything will be roses. I see both sides and it should be okay to talk about issues with fundamental base state as well as provide optimism when warranted.

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This sub forum region. There are a few exceptions, most notably the coastal regions that keep taking advantage of the bomb cyclones that I do think are associated with the warmer waters but do anyone west of of bay no good.  Some higher elevation locations have done more respectable too by still taking advantage of some of the marginal events that failed along 95.  But the vast majority of the population of this forum are in a drought.  Even up here it’s been really bad. Ya I’ve had more but my avg is 3x higher than DC.  Everyone makes a huge deal that I hit 50” 2 years ago but that’s only slightly above avg here and the year before was the worst season in 50 years here, and we had 3 years below avg preceding that and last year was also way below avg.  One slightly above avg season surrounded by 6 below avg years isn’t doing ok. 
 
If you mean other parts of the world who cares. It doesn’t matter to us at all that Tahoe is getting 200”. That has no correlation to our snow. They get snow from completely different mechanisms than we do. A larger scale pattern shift that’s bad for us could be good for other places. I can’t stand when people bring up snow somewhere else that has no correlation to our climo as if that somehow has something predictive to say about our snow prospects. 

Not true at....when the west/Midwest is seeing above average snow and were in shutout modre...its all about the pattern. The whole country can't be cold and snow

The Midwest isn’t getting a lot of snow. The only places getting a lot of snow are  higher elevations out west. Higher elevations and places north of our latitude aren’t good comps to us.  
 

For example, if the hemispheric pattern were to shift in a way that shifts the thermal boundary north 1 degree but also increases baroclinicity and precip events that would be a net benefit to snowfall in high elevations and places north of us but a net negative for us. 

I don’t wish to rehash this in detail.  That was just an example.  If you want to dig deep into this we can go over to the climate change thread. But I’m simply pointing out that using increases in snow in places that have a totally different snow climo with no correlation to us and get snow in different ways is a bad way to make the case you’re making. The same factors that might hurt us could help them. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I can't speak for everybody, but...one reason it may start a back and forth is because we are already suffering in a crappy pattern--that’s the here and now reality. So now here comes someone not just occasionally, but EVERY day every post remind us it's not just crappy now but will be crappy in the future. I don't dispute your stats and I don't have THAT many arguments...but again we are suffering here, and the EVERYDAY reminder of a potential crappy future ain't helping the vibe in here like at all. The crappy present is enough to deal with on it's own, lol

When did I say it’s going to be crappy in the future?  I’ve said repeatedly I can’t say that for sure. All I’ve done is present the data that shows the trend. Everyone else drew the obvious logical inferences from that. But don’t get mad at me. 

[psuhoffman]

@JiTo be more specific a SE ridge is a good thing for Chicago. So if there is a large scale change that’s increasing the SE ridge it might help them and hurt us. 

[CAPE]

I am sitting here drinking an imperial stout, waiting for NFL playoff football to commence, and watching this.

http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee

Full screen it and you can pretend you are looking out the window(a little alcohol helps).

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When did I say it’s going to be crappy in the future?  I’ve said repeatedly I can’t say that for sure. All I’ve done is present the data that shows the trend. Everyone else drew the obvious logical inferences from that. But don’t get mad at me. 

How is talk of the base state not be equated to the future? When you say stuff like "If we're gonna need all this to work for snow then we're screwed"...I mean that IS talking about the future snow prospects, ain't it?

[psuhoffman]

@Ji there can also be different trends on different time scales. By belief that on a longer scale the downward trend is real is not in contradiction with those saying better times are ahead. 
 

I do strongly believe BWI will get more snow in the next 7 years than it got the last 7. I do think on a shorter timescale we’ve been in a down cycle. But do I think BWI will average 30” over the next 7 years which is what is necessary to balance out the last 7 and get the larger period back to “normal”. No.

 

So I believe both can be true. Yes we will likely get a significantly snowier period ahead soon. Maybe BWI does average 25” over the next 7 years.  But that would still mean at the end of that period the longer term down trend continues and BWIs longer term snow mean will have continued to decline.  
 

I see a lot of one statement being misused in relation to another.  They are independent things. Just like when I say a pattern doesn’t look good doesn’t mean we can’t luck into some snow somewhere. Getting some snow is normal. Just means a good run where we actually get above normal snow isn’t likely. But if I say something is trending bad or it’s not a great pattern suddenly I said it’s never gonna snow again.  

[CAPE]

How about we keep the discussion focused on what's just ahead of us- that is the purpose of this thread after all. Guidance is advertising a pattern going forward that is significantly more favorable than where we are now, meaning snow is actually possible lol. It's more fun to try and hone in on the potential periods that may lead to something fruitful. Be optimistic/glass half full and shit like that. If it doesn't work out- oh well, life goes on. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

How about we keep the discussion focused on what's just ahead of us- that is the purpose of this thread after all. Guidance is advertising a pattern going forward that is significantly more favorable than where we are now, meaning snow is actually possible lol. It's more fun to try and hone in on the potential periods that may lead to something fruitful. Be optimistic/glass half full and shit like that. If it doesn't work out- oh well, life goes on. 

Where are you seeing that? End of the runs last night and today showed more of the same, didn't they?

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Where are you seeing that? End of the runs last night and today showed more of the same, didn't they?

You think this is a 'close the blinds' look? Come on dude.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How is talk of the base state not be equated to the future? When you say stuff like "If we're gonna need all this to work for snow then we're screwed"...I mean that IS talking about the future snow prospects, ain't it?

I’m talking about NOW. Right now. I don’t know what May or may not happen 50 years from now and frankly I don’t care. I have my suspicions but I’m not been going there. Y’all do that. 

[TugHillMatt]

6 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

We always lag so our perspective is tempered but the NE and upper MW are getting their weenies beat into the dirt (wet dirt). I do believe there'll be a snap back of sorts for them. I'm nearly certain. Nothing epic, just some sort of climo catchup. If that happens, we'll prob get involved too. Having no snow on the ground to our west and north is another checkmark in the crappy column. Fixing that would help by default 

About 3 feet behind where we should be at this time of year in the Syracuse snowbelt. This string of awful winters here is definitely going to bring down the average.

[TugHillMatt]

P.S. I hate Buffalo.

[WesternFringe]

3 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe someone will step up and be our sacrificial lamb so we can get our good winters back.

I volunteer.  I am one of those folks who thinks recency bias and a bunch of ninas has colored our understanding of the past and our expectations for the future.

If we don't turn it around in the next 2-3 years, I will admit I am wrong, go see the reaper, and disappear from this forum forever.  Because what is the point in tracking if we absolutely can’t snow for the most part?  Especially if we have to read about it over and over from people in every mid/long range thread.  That isn’t good for mental health if one is investing so much time tracking potential snowstorms!

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

P.S. I hate Buffalo.

Just think of how much mud they have there though.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You think this is a 'close the blinds' look? Come on dude.

Ah you right that's not bad at all...12z GEFS looks decent at that period as well. Too busy looking at the very last hour of the run, lol Would love to get this to move up in time.

[Terpeast]

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am sitting here drinking an imperial stout, waiting for NFL playoff football to commence, and watching this.

http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee

Full screen it and you can pretend you are looking out the window(a little alcohol helps).

And when you use a 34" screen, it's way better.

 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just think of how much mud they have there though.

Haha! They actually still have some pack there that's survived the cutters, downpours, blowtorches, drunk Bills fans, etc...

[WesternFringe]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m talking about NOW. Right now. I don’t know what May or may not happen 50 years from now and frankly I don’t care. I have my suspicions but I’m not been going there. Y’all do that. 

Your posts definitely imply this is the new normal.  At least that is how I think the vast majority of folks in here read them.  You talk about trends a lot.  And medians of decades declining.  The posts are very suggestive of how things might be going forward, even if that isn’t your intention.

eta:  You also write about how if we need every teleconnection to even snow along with anomalous cold, then what is the point.  I am not sure how one would interpret that other than you are implying this is the new normal. 

I agree with BobChill and Ji and others that our lack of snow is primarily cyclical.  I had 28.5” last year, which is a few inches over climo, so we all have our perspectives.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You think this is a 'close the blinds' look? Come on dude.

I disagree on how likely we are to get much snow from that. It’s better yes. But it’s going from a 0/10 to 3/10 imo. Analogs to that aren’t good. Some are total shutouts. Some have a tiny bit of snow. Some minor events. If we had that look long enough we probably would get some snow but that isn’t a snowy look just not a no hope shit the blinds one. But it’s not worth being excited about either.  To quantify if that was a monthly h5 mean for Feb I would buy BWIs over under at 4”. That’s still below avg and pathetic considering it’s coming off a complete blanking 

[snownut]

40 minutes ago, Ji said:

44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This sub forum region. There are a few exceptions, most notably the coastal regions that keep taking advantage of the bomb cyclones that I do think are associated with the warmer waters but do anyone west of of bay no good.  Some higher elevation locations have done more respectable too by still taking advantage of some of the marginal events that failed along 95.  But the vast majority of the population of this forum are in a drought.  Even up here it’s been really bad. Ya I’ve had more but my avg is 3x higher than DC.  Everyone makes a huge deal that I hit 50” 2 years ago but that’s only slightly above avg here and the year before was the worst season in 50 years here, and we had 3 years below avg preceding that and last year was also way below avg.  One slightly above avg season surrounded by 6 below avg years isn’t doing ok. 
 
If you mean other parts of the world who cares. It doesn’t matter to us at all that Tahoe is getting 200”. That has no correlation to our snow. They get snow from completely different mechanisms than we do. A larger scale pattern shift that’s bad for us could be good for other places. I can’t stand when people bring up snow somewhere else that has no correlation to our climo as if that somehow has something predictive to say about our snow prospects. 

Not true at....when the west/Midwest is seeing above average snow and were in shutout modre...its all about the pattern. The whole country can't be cold and snow

Not claiming a scientific knowledge of the correlations of snow in the east to the west. However I do think there is a clear opposite in play.   Having lived in the Mid Atlantic for 47 years and now the past 8 in OR I have observed a strong correlation from east to west.

Forget the high elevations of the west. They have their own micro climates.  

Most of the time when it's cold and stormy here it is typically warmer in the east. Opposite, when you had the really cold dry pattern around Christmas it was above average warm here and my snow pack was washed away. Just a small example yet I have observed this over and over during the past 8 years.   I would wager if our winter sucked this year yours would be far better with more winter storms to track.

Fingers crossed you still get a big snow this year.   

Not trolling.  I have a genuine interest in the weather there. My oldest daughter lives in Leesburg and most of my family in the Shenandoah Valley area so I do follow along what's happening there.  

[Rtd208]

Enjoy.

 

[rjvanals]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

About 3 feet behind where we should be at this time of year in the Syracuse snowbelt. This string of awful winters here is definitely going to bring down the average.

A good NW flow which is what Syracuse needs for Lake Effect at least gets cold air into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast while a SW flow regime which buries Buffalo (2001-02, 2022-23) is bad news down here since we have no cold air. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Your posts definitely imply this is the new normal.  At least that is how I think the vast majority of folks in here read them.  You talk about trends a lot.  And medians of decades declining.  The posts are very suggestive of how things might be going forward, even if that isn’t your intention.

eta:  You also write about how if we need every teleconnection to even snow along with anomalous cold, then what is the point.  I am not sure how one would interpret that other than you are implying this is the new normal. 

I am talking about trends up to NOW and how they impact is now. That’s pertinent because we base a lot of our analysis on historical normals for patterns.  Take my post in banter last night about the euros rainstorm for the mid Atlantic despite every pattern indicator being perfect for a snowstorm. My point when I said “I don’t even know what I’m looking for anymore” was right now when I analyze a long range pattern and see that look my expectation is a snowstorm and when it ends up a 40 degree rain literally I’m not even sure what to look for anymore. 
 

That doesn’t mean the trend doesn’t change in the future. I dunno. Also two trends can be true as I’ve said. I do think we get more snow soon. But I don’t think we get so much more that we offset the lack of snow recently. On the short scale we will get a snowier period ahead but likely the longer term down trend will also continue. That’s my gut. But that doesn’t mean I’m saying it’s never gonna snow again or won’t ever be snowier periods ahead.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I disagree on how likely we are to get much snow from that. It’s better yes. But it’s going from a 0/10 to 3/10 imo. Analogs to that aren’t good. Some are total shutouts. Some have a tiny bit of snow. Some minor events. If we had that look long enough we probably would get some snow but that isn’t a snowy look just not a no hope shit the blinds one. But it’s not worth being excited about either.  To quantify if that was a monthly h5 mean for Feb I would buy BWIs over under at 4”. That’s still below avg and pathetic considering it’s coming off a complete blanking 

Which is what I said. It is far from ideal, but how do we know it won't actually be better than advertised? A bit stronger ridge poking into the NAO space/stronger TPV influence and the SE ridge is further suppressed. That would make a big difference. To be clear, I am not hunting anything close to a KU- that is completely unrealistic. Give me a decent wave riding the boundary for 3-6. I know your goal is reaching somewhere close to your climo avg of 40", and you sit at zero currently. That sucks. Maybe lower your expectations significantly. Some snow is way better than none. The advertised pattern offers chances for frozen in our region.

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You think this is a 'close the blinds' look? Come on dude.

This is cold across Canada. Even if we’re at neutral or slightly warmer than average in our backyards, having colder -5 air to the north of us is way better than +10 all the way up across Hudson Bay to Newfoundland. 

Might get a 1-3” mix to rain event if timing is good enough. Or 2-6” thump with perfect timing. Can still whiff though.