January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you nailed it recently when you said we’ve seen the character of this winter. It ain’t good. But we could still blunder into something other than a total dead ratter. Cold air nearby and an active pattern hopefully gives us chances, even if the dominant p-type is rain. Need timing and a bit of luck.

The chances for frozen will likely come when a more amplified low (or 2) track up towards the GLs and drag the thermal boundary southeastward behind, and we get a well timed wave- like you showed earlier on the 6z GFS. It tried to do the same thing for the 23rd but the trailing wave damped as the spacing was a bit too tight.

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The chances for frozen will likely come when a more amplified low (or 2) track up towards the GLs and drag the thermal boundary southeastward behind, and we get a well timed wave- like you showed earlier on the 6z GFS. It tried to do the same thing for the 23rd but the trailing wave damped as the spacing was a bit too tight.

Hopefully the pattern stays active as the PV tries to press southward into Hudson Bay and the 50-50 region. Of course as we know, more SE ridge will keep the Gulf open, and better chance of a wetter pattern without a deeper eastern trough. 

[stormtracker]

50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

Probably one of the bleakest and correct assessments here.  Starting to think January is done. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably one of the bleakest and correct assessments here.  Starting to think January is done. 

Tend to agree. One last brief deep winter window late Jan into very early Feb then we go blowtorch. We can always hope for a convoluted March window but overall so far this winter has been humbling.

[Ralph Wiggum]

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

We always lag so our perspective is tempered but the NE and upper MW are getting their weenies beat into the dirt (wet dirt). I do believe there'll be a snap back of sorts for them. I'm nearly certain. Nothing epic, just some sort of climo catchup. If that happens, we'll prob get involved too. Having no snow on the ground to our west and north is another checkmark in the crappy column. Fixing that would help by default 

There's only one to go from here....really. Next year won't be a repeat, I think most here ('most') would agree it can't get worse. So we have that going for us.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's only one to go from here....really. Next year won't be a repeat, I think most here ('most') would agree it can't get worse. So we have that going for us.

I’ve been promised a moderate modoki Nino and there’s no takebacks 

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

There's only one to go from here....really. Next year won't be a repeat, I think most here ('most') would agree it can't get worse. So we have that going for us.

I don't look too far ahead. We all killed ourselves until we died from it just before Feb 14th 2015 lol. I'm not sold on a Feb blowtorch. The west's epic ninano will level out. If the pna goes up for most of Feb it would make sense. Good month for that. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I don't look too far ahead. We all killed ourselves until we died from it just before Feb 14th 2015 lol. I'm not sold on a Feb blowtorch. The west's epic ninano will level out. If the pna goes up for most of Feb it would make sense. Good month for that. 

I like that hybrid enso term there...."ninano". Brilliant!

[Bob Chill]

23 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Probably one of the bleakest and correct assessments here.  Starting to think January is done. 

Too early for that. Next 10 days look absolutely abysmal at first but moderates towards just run of the mill God awful. Trend is our friend. Maybe we can move firmly into the not terrible enough to not snow arena before it's still light after 7pm 

[snowmagnet]

23 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Too early for that. Next 10 days look absolutely abysmal at first but moderates towards just run of the mill God awful. Trend is our friend. Maybe we can move firmly into the not terrible enough to not snow arena before it's still light after 7pm 

I appreciate when you pop on here to keep people from jumping off the ledge.  I don't think the models can handle things in the long run, especially when the Pac is throwing a wrench in things.  We have seen this all winter.  This current pattern can't last, so something has to give.  Or maybe it will and California will be under water much earlier than predicted.  

[AtlanticWx]

if the troughing near 50 N/50 W trends stronger which it looks like it has been, that should be enough for CAD events here.

[MD Snow]

I have to keep reminding myself that it's only the middle of January. We really have about a week until the Pac starts to become more favorable. After that it's going to take a while to scour out this putrid airmass. So we're really 10-14+ days out from really knowing what things are going to be like and getting an air mass nearby that will support anything outside of a fluke and get frozen into the cities. I could see it going either way in Feb. I think January 25 onward is the time to be keeping an eye on. That's 10+ days out. As we know, modeling is at best, unreliable 10+ days out. As hard as it is, I think we need to let it play out a bit more before calling it. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve been promised a moderate modoki Nino and there’s no takebacks 

What if…we get a 2003/2010 type Nino and DC gets 8” next year.  Then do I have permission to start sacrificing people who try to say “but it’s this or it’s that”?  Lol 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What if…we get a 2003/2010 type Nino and DC gets 8” next year.  Then do I have permission to start sacrificing people who try to say “but it’s this or it’s that”?  Lol 

As long as the sacrifice does not cause additional CO2 emissions.

[CAPE]

20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What if…we get a 2003/2010 type Nino and DC gets 8” next year.  Then do I have permission to start sacrificing people who try to say “but it’s this or it’s that”?  Lol 

I was looking at h5 composites for the winters of the 1960s this morning, which were mostly -NAO, and a mixture of neutral/Nina/Nino. Holy crap the negative anomalies into the mid latitudes many of those years were nuts. Hard to imagine seeing something like that today.

[psuhoffman]

@Ralph Wiggum I agree with @Bob Chill. Are there ways to score in that look ya. But we’ve seen this pattern plenty the last 7 years and has that been working out for us lately…(checks data) umm.  We would need timing and we’d be rooting for weak waves which given the circumstances seems blah  

@WxUSAF let me admit my expectations given my location probably make me even more disillusioned than most.  In what was the absolute worst winter ever up here 2020 when DC had no snow I had 14” here by now!   We’re about half way through and I need 17” just to avoid the worst season ever!  And simply not being the worst ever isn’t my bar or target even in a bad year.  And that’s not unrealistic when 95% of winters here, even the awful ones, at least get to 20”.  So the prospects of licking into some 5” messy event does absolutely nothing. If I finish the season with 10” it’s by a huge margin the worst winter ever up here. So seeing a “well that not gonna be good but maybe we luck into one minor wave eventually in that” doesn’t do much for my feelings on this winter.  I have a lot further to go here ironically. DC can get a 6” storm and suddenly this year catapults way up the list to a bottom 30% but not bottom 1% winter. Here i need 17” just to not be the worst!  Lol 

That said if I do get one snow I’ll enjoy it in the moment but I separate those 2 things.   When long range pattern hunting I’m a big game Hunter.  What’s the point of over analyzing some low probability pattern that would require a ton of luck to work when none of that will be evident until close range anyways.  If something pops up day 3 with a legit chance in a flawed pattern ya I’ll be in on it and excited.  Just can’t bring myself to get excited about a huge -pna se ridge long range looK with “but if 20 details all go our way we could get some front end mix” kinda thing.  

 

 

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was looking at h5 composites for the winters of the 1960s this morning, which were mostly -NAO, and a mixture of neutral/Nina/Nino. Holy crap the negative anomalies into the mid latitudes many of those years were nuts. Hard to imagine seeing something like that today.

Please we’ve had -3 NAO blocks recently where we cant even get any negative anomaly. And before anyone says but the pna there were several periods In the 60s with a -pna and a trough across the whole conus because of a block! 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Please we’ve had -3 NAO blocks recently where we cant even get any negative anomaly. And before anyone says but the pna there were several periods In the 60s with a -pna and a trough across the whole conus because of a block! 

It was interesting/eye opening, but in the here and now, we have to deal with the reality of similar h5 patterns producing somewhat different(less desirable) results.

[Terpeast]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What if…we get a 2003/2010 type Nino and DC gets 8” next year.  Then do I have permission to start sacrificing people who try to say “but it’s this or it’s that”?  Lol 

Maybe someone will step up and be our sacrificial lamb so we can get our good winters back.

[TSSN+]

Pull the plug already. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

22 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe someone will step up and be our sacrificial lamb so we can get our good winters back.

We will get them back.. history tells as this much.  I think we just need a more favorable storm track and better timing with the cold air.  Look at the period before Christmas.. it doesnt get much colder than that. In December.  Period. We also had an extended period of blocking.  

We just need timing and little luck.  

We are on an epic losing streak.  I wouldnt be surprised if the tables turn in a few week and we get several decent snowfalls.  

[AtlanticWx]

it's something

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

it's something

Trash. Need it over Cuba at this range. It’ll end up over Michigan lol

[CAPE]

There's your front end thump for the northwest crew.

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

We will get them back.. history tells as this much.  I think we just need a more favorable storm track and better timing with the cold air.  Look at the period before Christmas.. it doesnt get much colder than that. In December.  Period. We also had an extended period of blocking.  

We just need timing and little luck.  

We are on an epic losing streak.  I wouldnt be surprised if the tables turn in a few week and we get several decent snowfalls.  

I was joking. That was meant to be funny

I agree things will turn around at some point though. 

[Chris78]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There's your front end thump for the northwest crew.

I have a feeling as things start to become more favorable for the east in general, areas to North and to the west of our sub forum will start to cash in while we're still on the wrong side of the thermal boundary. 

Anyone who thinks it's unreadable in here now just wait till then. 

[Paleocene]

Just now, Chris78 said:

I have a feeling as things start to become more favorable for the east in general, areas to North and to the west of our sub forum will start to cash in while we're still on the wrong side of the thermal boundary. 

Anyone who thinks it's unreadable in here now just wait till then. 

This is my greatest fear as well. My brother north of Ithaca NY has gotten very little this winter too. But this is his cash in season when we rain. Headed up there for prez day weekend so hopefully we see snow

[Ji]

We got to score on Jan 28th

[psuhoffman]

Two things can be true. 
1) It will snow again and there will be another HECS. 
2) we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history and lately it’s been a lot harder to get snow than it used to be  

Those two things don’t have to start a back and forth everytime one or the other is brought up. They can coexist. 

[Ji]

Two things can be true. 
1) It will snow again and there will be another HECS. 
2) we are in the worst snow drought in recorded history and lately it’s been a lot harder to get snow than it used to be  
Those two things don’t have to start a back and forth everytime one or the other is brought up. They can coexist. 

Who is we? Usually when one area dosnet get snow another area flourishes