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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's funny...it has trended slightly weaker and east with SER run over run since 0z yet the Western ridge has nudged west run over run since 0z. Would have expected a more robust and well placed Nina-esque SER with the PAC looks. I think guidance is struggling right now pretty badly out past day 7-10.

Could be an elongated trough but I am sure there would still be ways for storms to cut especially early on in the period. 

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2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Too late. 

Towel already thrown. 

Remember I forecasted a +3 Feb canonical nina to finish the winter.

And no, it is not a reverse psychology trick I’m trying to pull on Mother Nature…

(ok, maybe it is…)

+3??? at this rate we will be +5-6 if you factor the nighttime lows and daytime highs. 

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3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade.  There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming.  I have lived through three of them so far.  Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades.  Toughen  up people, or move further north.

81F80406-F2CE-4DB8-AEBB-3CA18CCC3703.webp

A lot of old people say that it used to snow a lot more when they were kids. Makes sense, since they remember the 60s (plus 1958)

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Don’t worry March will have a giant ass trough parked over the east coast all month so it’s 45 and drizzle for 3 weeks straight

I’d take a giant ass trough parked over the EC for all of March with winter / spring air masses battling it out nearby. We’d likely get snow out of that. April is probably what you’re referring to, which is when we’ll be 10 degrees below average with above average rainfall.


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347C2F18-C5A2-4ED5-99D8-7B7C869A5112.thumb.png.da0eb7f8b3cb2370698b6ddf6fbbb17c.png

look at the ridge axis along the west coast then look at the extent the trough is stretching to avoid progressing east. That was what I meant the other night when I said this isn’t the pacific. Even when the pac is perfect there seems to be resistance in the flow to getting a trough into the east for any meaningful length of time. Something else other then just the pac is feeding it. 
89671DE3-382B-4013-8988-88BAE918E14E.thumb.png.b21c2ff5ba1b6f85f512f42b5adcf351.png

And this is why a big -epo arctic flow pattern isn’t actually correlated to snow here. This is actually the way more common outcome from an epo ridge.  A -epo +pna is a rare combo. It’s difficult to get that longwave configuration. A -epo usually dumps the cold west of us and pumps a SE ridge.  
 

That’s why a way better pattern for snow here has always been ridging across central Canada and the NAO domain. But that combo usually comes with a +epo and it’s not a really cold look which is why the vast majority of our snow, even if you go back to the 1800s when we got a lot more, has always come with temps near or even above freezing!  Arctic cross polar flow patterns are 1) rare and 2) not even usually a good longwave look to get an amplified storm off the east coast. 

 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

347C2F18-C5A2-4ED5-99D8-7B7C869A5112.thumb.png.da0eb7f8b3cb2370698b6ddf6fbbb17c.png

look at the ridge axis along the west coast then look at the extent the trough is stretching to avoid progressing east. That was what I meant the other night when I said this isn’t the pacific. Even when the pac is perfect there seems to be resistance in the flow to getting a trough into the east for any meaningful length of time. Something else other then just the pac is feeding it. 
89671DE3-382B-4013-8988-88BAE918E14E.thumb.png.b21c2ff5ba1b6f85f512f42b5adcf351.png

And this is why a big -epo arctic flow pattern isn’t actually correlated to snow here. This is actually the way more common outcome from an epo ridge.  A -epo +pna is a rare combo. It’s difficult to get that longwave configuration. A -epo usually dumps the cold west of us and pumps a SE ridge.  
 

That’s why a way better pattern for snow here has always been ridging across central Canada and the NAO domain. But that combo usually comes with a +epo and it’s not a really cold look which is why the vast majority of our snow, even if you go back to the 1800s when we got a lot more, has always come with temps near or even above freezing!  Arctic cross polar flow patterns are 1) rare and 2) not even usually a good longwave look to get an amplified storm off the east coast. 

 

That h5 look is a bit deceptive tho esp with a CPF fighting a weak/flat SER. Surface temps are alot colder. That's probably one of the better looks we could have given the Nina. I didn't see you note the stout 50/50 being depicted either?

That's a less complex potential path to victory. Classic mid season overrunning setup. Posted wrt this yesterday on here via gefs....good to see eps signal as well:

eps_T2m_us_59.png

eps_T850a_us_59.png

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That h5 look is a bit deceptive tho esp with a CPF fighting a weak/flat SER. Surface temps are alot colder. That's probably one of the better looks we could have given the Nina. I didn't see you note the stout 50/50 being depicted either?

That's a less complex potential path to victory. Classic mid season overrunning setup. Posted wrt this yesterday on here via gefs....good to see eps signal as well:

 

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

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11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

Guess I should have been more specific. I was implying more 2m LL cold and not necessarily suggesting snow. So maybe 'classic' was a poor choice of words. Frozen would have been better. Absolutely agree with that wrt I'm sure that look will morph into something that we've seen already this winter. Hope a reshuffle is in the works soon.

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Idk Ralph, considering the past 6 weeks, that pattern looks like mix/ice to rain at best. Classic overrunning needs confluence and mid/surface flow with some kind of north vector. EPS/GFS look like strong SW flow scouring out everything. I want to be wrong but ensembles are agreeing on a continuation of persistence. I haven't like a single setup inside of 7 days since Dec 1st either. In my eyes, a continuation of the last 6 weeks in general is pretty likely and I really want to be wrong lol

I think you nailed it recently when you said we’ve seen the character of this winter. It ain’t good. But we could still blunder into something other than a total dead ratter. Cold air nearby and an active pattern hopefully gives us chances, even if the dominant p-type is rain. Need timing and a bit of luck.

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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS.  I am watching to see if these cold anomalies for late January (Day 13) are still there a week from now or just another mirage….need cold air for snow.

D4B673AB-CE72-4E4F-9F38-2D3A56448103.png

It looks like another brief window before we go full-on Feb Nina. At least that's what virtually every LR piece of modeling seems to agree on at this point. Then of course a BN March...but did we really expect otherwise?

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think you nailed it recently when you said we’ve seen the character of this winter. It ain’t good. But we could still blunder into something other than a total dead ratter. Cold air nearby and an active pattern hopefully gives us chances, even if the dominant p-type is rain. Need timing and a bit of luck.

We always lag so our perspective is tempered but the NE and upper MW are getting their weenies beat into the dirt (wet dirt). I do believe there'll be a snap back of sorts for them. I'm nearly certain. Nothing epic, just some sort of climo catchup. If that happens, we'll prob get involved too. Having no snow on the ground to our west and north is another checkmark in the crappy column. Fixing that would help by default 

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