January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[fujiwara79]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

And neither pattern will give us snow.  Ughx2

Even La Nadas (2001-2, 2019-20) don't give us snow.

[cbmclean]

2 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Don't think you've won.  He'll be Bach. 

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, fujiwara79 said:

Even La Nadas (2001-2, 2019-20) don't give us snow.

No patterns yield snow now   We track arctic fronts.

[Steve25]

This forum has officially switched from most of the users hoping for any kind of snow events... to harassing anyone hopeful for snow, telling them it will never snow again this winter or any other winter in the future in this region so get used to it

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

This forum has officially switched from most of the users hoping for any kind of snow events... to harassing anyone hopeful for snow, telling them it will never snow again this winter or any other winter in the future in this region so get used to it

Dark times indeed

[clskinsfan]

Happy hour GFS is Nina on steroids throughout its entire run. We are fooked most likely. 

[frd]

4 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Nice rain storm

Yep, it's the base state. Some here deny it.  

[DE2PA]

Jan 20-27 may likely be our best an only shot.

 

Then we burry this season.

[fujiwara79]

The oceans are on fire.  Despite a triple-dip La Nina, 2022 set another record for oceanic heat content.  It is what it is.  We will still occasionally get cold and snowy winters, but comparing analogs from the 1950s doesn't apply anymore.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

the funny part is I think he used to root for us last year lmao, he has smth against northeast/ma people for no reason

Triggered by Tony Pann lol.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Happy hour GFS is Nina on steroids throughout its entire run. We are fooked most likely. 

It just can't know yet.

[Weather Will]

Way too early to throw in the towel for winter.  WB Happy Hour GEFS baby improvements….let’s see where we are a week from now. Too far out to get crazy on every run.

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Triggered by Tony Pann lol.

What the frickle happened? Lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

This forum has officially switched from most of the users hoping for any kind of snow events... to harassing anyone hopeful for snow, telling them it will never snow again this winter or any other winter in the future in this region so get used to it

Lol 

no one has harassed anyone.  No one has said it will never snow again.  But I’ve seen simple data and facts about what has been happening. And I’ve seen people who can draw their own conclusions then feel harassed by it when it’s not the picture they want. 

[weathervswife]

Question to ponder, would you rather know on December 1st that you would receive zero snow or is the chase, mostly frustrating, more enjoyable.

[WxUSAF]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Way too early to throw in the towel for winter.  WB Happy Hour GEFS baby improvements….let’s see where we are a week from now. Too far out to get crazy on every run.

For 1 run at least, definitely a solid step toward the EPS/GEPS look, which is way more favorable for us.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For 1 run at least, definitely a solid step toward the EPS/GEPS look, which is way more favorable for us.

Agreed…. Including hits to our SOUTH.  WB 18Z GEFS

[AtlanticWx]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

For 1 run at least, definitely a solid step toward the EPS/GEPS look, which is way more favorable for us.

GEFS also has a ~2" mean for much of the area with just the 27th threat, which is pretty big this far out

[Ralph Wiggum]

49 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Way too early to throw in the towel for winter.  WB Happy Hour GEFS baby improvements….let’s see where we are a week from now. Too far out to get crazy on every run.

It's funny...it has trended slightly weaker and east with SER run over run since 0z yet the Western ridge has nudged west run over run since 0z. Would have expected a more robust and well placed Nina-esque SER with the PAC looks. I think guidance is struggling right now pretty badly out past day 7-10.

[Scraff]

How we doing in here!? I’ve been Covid checked out for a week.  Did we shit the blinds? Is our winter fucked!?  I heard some “words” were now acceptable. That’s exciting news! #adulting #grabsanotherbeer 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Scraff said:

How we doing in here!? I’ve been Covid checked out for a week.  Did we shit the blinds? Is our winter fucked!?  I heard some “words” were now acceptable. That’s exciting news! #adulting #grabsanotherbeer 

Fucking shit hit the fan....a veritable fuck fest in here with this fucked winter. Oh and we are allowed to use "fuck" now btw. Happy you fucking feel better. 

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

How we doing in here!? I’ve been Covid checked out for a week.  Did we shit the blinds? Is our winter fucked!?  I heard some “words” were now acceptable. That’s exciting news! #adulting #grabsanotherbeer 

Come back in a year. 

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

Way too early to throw in the towel for winter.  WB Happy Hour GEFS baby improvements….let’s see where we are a week from now. Too far out to get crazy on every run.

Too late. 

Towel already thrown. 

Remember I forecasted a +3 Feb canonical nina to finish the winter.

And no, it is not a reverse psychology trick I’m trying to pull on Mother Nature…

…

…

(ok, maybe it is…)

[AtlanticWx]

this forum needs some glimmer of hope so while weeklies are quite inaccurate 30 days out you can see the effect of the SSWE as shown on the weeklies towards the latter half of feb

se ridge seems to become more muted and cold seems to slowly press down. again, don't take that as a forecast just stating what i see verbatim

[Scraff]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Fucking shit hit the fan....a veritable fuck fest in here with this fucked winter. Oh and we are allowed to use "fuck" now btw. Happy you fucking feel better. 

LOLz!! Thanks. Tested negative today thank god. It really sucked this week. I do NOT recommend picking up this particular variant.

Sooooo……dropping fuck bombs are fun in here now! I think we all need to just unleash every now and then honestly. It’s a healthy release.  If it’s not going to snow, let’s just have a thread for everyone to vent and get it out of their system. Though—feels like I’m already in the right thread for that.   Anyway—I’m getting another beer and still holding out hope this winter can turn around. It can happen. I know it!

[Weather Will]

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade.  There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming.  I have lived through three of them so far.  Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades.  Toughen  up people, or move further north.

[osfan24]

Wow, the 60's were rocking.

[Terpeast]

31 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

this forum needs some glimmer of hope so while weeklies are quite inaccurate 30 days out you can see the effect of the SSWE as shown on the weeklies towards the latter half of feb

se ridge seems to become more muted and cold seems to slowly press down. again, don't take that as a forecast just stating what i see verbatim

One glimmer of hope is the GEFS trended back cooler from the last 3 runs or so. Maybe just noise atm 

[cbmclean]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

This was placed in the banter thread by WeatherShak but shows the average snow stats by decade.  There have been other bad decades before anyone knew about global warming.  I have lived through three of them so far.  Hopefully, we will all live long enough to see good and bad decades.  Toughen  up people, or move further north.

2020's will be negative.  That's right, they will SUBTRACT snow from previous decades.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What the frickle happened? Lol

Northeast snow weenies were wish-casting and apparently got angry when he called them on it.  But since then he has been going out of his way to revel in their misery.  not a classy move in my opinion.