psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Enjoy it bro. I was thinking of taking my family up this weekend too, but my kid got sick. Might try again in Feb if we don’t torch so bad. I'm sorry that sucks. I had to cancel a trip to snowshoe last winter when the kids got sick. If the long range guidance is correct Feb could get really ugly... if so my full attention will turn to my PD trip out west shortly lol. Another option is Vermont. Killington is really awesome for the kids. They have a really good kids program, and the back side of the mountain isn't very crowded and has very easy green trails all the way down to the base. It's really not THAT much further than snowshoe and doable if you take a day off and make it a 3 day weekend. Even if we torch odds are Vermont will find its way to a snowstorm or two sometime in February, I would imagine...god I hope so or they are FOOKED because they have absolutely no base right now and ski season is kinda half their economy. Even past torch years like 98 were NOTHING like this. I went up to Vermont a couple times that winter and they actually did ok because enough of those rain storms were wet snow up there and they had a pretty good base. I can't remember a year where mid January the ski resorts up there had absolutely no natural snow base at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The GEFS flips the pattern in the Pacific exactly opposite...totally reverses all the blues and reds...and the result is exactly the same for us. Not much else to say really. Wait for Feb and watch the weeds start coming up through the driveway crap s. SER will not be denied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: GFS OP advertising a PV split around 300 hours. Not sure if we’ll get a SSWE, but maybe our only hope this winter? Wouldn’t feel the effects until late feb/March I think anyway. I’ll let smarter people who understand that topic better talk about it. . A SSWE early Feb in 2018 is speculated to have caused what happened that March/April. It's plausible an event in late January could start to impact by the second half of Feb. But we've seen the SE ridge win in every other scenario so why are we confident the results would benefit us? It could just dump arctic air into the west again and pump the SE ridge to the north pole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Let's hope the GEFS is on crack . Geps still looks workable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 I don't think the "why" part is settled, tbh I mean like he said it could be some of THAT, but it sounds like others things are at play too. While it is indeed the worst period, do we give it longer to see if it's permanent? But trust me, I'm in a better place than I was 5 days ago. I'm just starting to see through the facade that this means more in life that is perpetuated by overexposure to this forum. You get exposed to a perceived negative long enough you start to believe it objectively is and life is worse because of it.Agreed. Sure, it’s the worst period ever, but a given period has to hold that title. The fact that it’s happening now sucks, but that doesn’t mean that we’re stuck in this rut forever. It took 50 years for the worst period of all time to change from the 70s to the current period. To me, that has zero bearing on whether or not 2023-2040 will be a good or bad period from a historical standpoint and it doesn’t give us the WHY. If it was true that a historically bad period means we’re doomed forever, then 2000-2015 wouldn’t have been as epic as it was. I don’t see a cause and effect there. We won’t have a hostile pac, or AMO, or some of these other factors in place forever. We can’t make blanket predictions about the future based on what we’re seeing right now. The longwave pattern has been trash for the better part of 6 years. Sure, we’ve had periods of relief from a hostile PAC and some of these other shitty factors (NAO, AO, SER) but they’ve been short lived. A week or two of relief at a time isn’t going to cut it when we’re talking about SO MANY factors working against us. We need a prolonged period of change, otherwise we’re left needing to see everything go right to MAYBE squeeze an event or two out a favorable 500mb setup. When a -EPO, -NAO, +PNA forms, we don’t see an immediate effect. It doesn’t get cold and snowy the next day. It takes some time for these patterns to affect us downstream, and by the time it does, things are already beginning to falling apart. When it doesn’t pan out, we’re left waiting for another period of “relief” That’s no way to achieve a sustained change back toward the norm. Here’s to hoping this our last historically shitty winter for a while. This board needs an epic winter. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong. Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR. We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 @Jithis is more depressing than the Gfs. Look at that setup. Tight wave spacing. System still over New England as the next wave entrees the Midwest. All that ridging over the top. Ridge pressing into the west. And it’s not enough. Not even that close. Ends up a New England event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 13, 2023 Author Share Posted January 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: All 3 major models handling the 20th wave and the one behind it completely different. Todays Canadian buried that follow up energy, and todays euro brings it east and keeps the ridge strong. Differences between euro and the other 2 couldn’t be farther apart in the LR. We all know which ever one ends up being the worst for us will win . The euro still ends up nothing but rainstorms, it just mocks us by doing it with a perfect pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Quite a "Liszt" of "Grieg"ances there!! (ETA: OK, I'll "Bach" off with the lousy puns, I'm done "Chopin" around for laughs!) 34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya can't Tellamann his instrument isn't attractive and not expect a comeBach <Grabs spray bottle> No! NO you two! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 youve got to be kidding 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: youve got to be kidding Nice rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: youve got to be kidding Eventually, who knows when, one of these are going to surprise us in a good way. It's like the boy who cried wolf...we are just going to keep chalking up losses then BAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 JMA about to go ham at the end of the run. Potential is there across ops guidance now. Doesn't seem quite cold enough on JMA preceding the system as the flow is amping hard-core as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That wave around the 21-22nd seems like it’s the first with any sort of prayer for some frozen precipitation. The huge differences between the GEFS and GEPS (and hopefully still the EPS) today are not that far off…like D7-8 there are major differences in the way they handle the western ridge and CONUS trough. EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 43 minutes ago, stormtracker said: <Grabs spray bottle> No! NO you two! Hey look Handel's water music! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey look Handel's water music! 1717 was good year for snow I bet. The GEPS might look better in the long term but when is it ever correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. I'm starting to wonder whether the period after D10 might be the time to look at to see if we can get a change...(or if whatever happens D10 can lead to something). I mean ain't no promises, of course...just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 1717 was good year for snow I bet. The GEPS might look better in the long term but when is it ever correct? You must something of a classical music nerd--ya nailed the date (I'm actually mad I didn't know that off-hand, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm starting to wonder whether the period after D10 might be the time to look at to see if we can get a change...(or if whatever happens D10 can lead to something). I mean ain't no promises, of course...just wondering. D10 will lead to Spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, Solution Man said: D10 will lead to Spring Don't make me pull out Vivaldi's Winter on you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey look Handel's water music! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: EPS not folding. Maybe a suggestion of some members being more GEFS-like around D10 with troughing over the SW and northern Mexico? But lots of ridging along the west coast generally. Looks better than it's previous run in regards to beating back the SER. Quite the model battle right now in the 10 - 16 day time frame. Gefs vs Eps/geps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 4 hours ago, stormtracker said: 1035 High, low attacking from the south. And…fuck. I'm glad you lifted the ban on fuck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies? the funny part is I think he used to root for us last year lmao, he has smth against northeast/ma people for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Has this dude always been a bit of a dick? Or is it just his 'victory lap' from the recent pathetic battle with the NE snow weenies? he’s always been pompous af. even earlier in the year he said the pattern was unbelievable. like a SE US KU pattern. and slithered back on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 What a tool bag! There's one thing I can't stand and it's people who point out when they're right and/or can't admit when they're wrong. Irritates the hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 Sounds like Nov and Dec had a La Nina pattern, January has a Super Nino pattern, and February and March will return to La Nina. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 13, 2023 Share Posted January 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Sounds like Nov and Dec had a La Nina pattern, January has a Super Nino pattern, and February and March will return to La Nina. Ugh And neither pattern will give us snow. Ughx2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts