January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

They do get love. With cats

Not true. I know three--two married (not to cats but actual women) and one getting close. Not true at all. So @Jiya couldn't be more wrong

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

surprised no one looked at the 12z gfs, looks a lot more wintry compared to previous runs

Sift back thru the last 3 pages of shit....I was all.over it.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I don't think you get what ppl are saying. I am not really disagreeing with this whatsoever tbh. But the mods have made it clear there is a place to discuss that and most of your debate points are 100% valid and justified. I think some folks just get want to discuss models and current wx without having to sift thru posts that essentially say "sucks to be you, a snowlover, because these are the new times we are in and we will never go back to the way things were so too bad for you and deal with it". I personally don't care one way or the other. I'm just playing devils advocate and stoking the fire because it's boring. Weather/nature gonna do what it wants. 

But the issue is there is way too much crossover between the pattern and the fact it’s warming to avoid some bleed over. Because a lot of the analysis we do in winter is centered on “is it gonna snow” and the analysts we do of the long range pattern is grounded in historical precedence and expected outcomes, it’s relevant and stupid to just ignore it. The issue seems to be that when it comes up in relation to the pattern the simple mention of it upsets some. Some for emotional reasons some for political maybe I dunno, but that then starts a side debate about it and then veers off on a tangent and I get the result isn’t good.
 

Take today. I didn’t talk about climate change at all. I simply refuted some claims that “this is just a normal cyclical thing” by showing the data that this is the least snowy period ever. That’s it. Then I addressed some individual “causes” you brought up one by one and said there is more to this than to just keep cycling between different variables as a cause but I didn’t say the elephant in the room.  But we have to discuss what’s impacting the pattern right?  But that started 20 posts on climate change again because everyone knows what’s really going on. 
 

I do understand I just think it’s kinda silly and a lost cause. 

[Maestrobjwa]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

tell me how thats working out or you

More I think about it...actually pretty well. Just the other day in fact...got the attention of one of the aides (young) at a school gig as I was just playing around with a song on the keyboard. There have been a couple other instances. So attraction is quite relative...only thing this proves is stereotypes that aren't really true. For some women playing an instrument at all can be an attraction, for some not so much. It all depends.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not true. I know three--two married (not to cats but actual women) and one getting close. Not true at all. So @Jiya couldn't be more wrong

There's a joke I heard once about a guy finding a hard-of-hearing genie, and given 3 wishes.  For one of the wishes, he mistakenly ended up with a 12 inch pianist.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Alright, that was a fun tangent. I'm going to step away for a bit. Can someone please hit the reboot button and get us back on the rails please...from this:

To this:

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

There's a joke I heard once about a guy finding a hard-of-hearing genie, and given 3 wishes.  For one of the wishes, he mistakenly ended up with a 12 inch pianist.  

Lol BTW I was just mentioning probably the most famous "girl heart throb" pianist being Franz Liszt, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Alright, that was a fun tangent. I'm going to step away for a bit. Can someone please hit the reboot button and get us back on the rails please...from this:

To this:

Man we at 0.0" of snow right now--there ain't no rails till we get a flake, lol This oughta be the wild west till' we do!

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

I'm all in on AGW and I don't doubt it's contributing to our warmer winter (and every other day of the year) stretch. Disclaimer, this post will probably be deleted/moved because I'm talking about CC, but I'd rather talk about it here than in that weird subforum thread. 

The point I want to make is we only have 130ish years of snowfall records. It would be really cool if we had a thousand years of records so we didn't have to rely on decade-to-decade comparisons within such a small dataset. For instance, what was annual snowfall in this region in the 1600s and 1700s? Anyone aware of any records kept during that period? 

It would be cool and interesting to have the data and it might be enlightening to find previous periods similar to this one so we have better comps to use.  But it wouldn't be that relevant to what we are doing here because when we analyze the weather history is a huge deal.  When the very knowledgeable posters here break down these day 10 looks in here to analyze our snow chances that analysis is based on what we know historically is a good pattern for snow and what the cause effect relationships are that work out in our favor.   We aren't basing our expectations and discussion on some other climatological period in the 1600's.  

 

Now maybe having more data would show another cycle like this...and a long frame of reference would show us some data useful to this current period...but my guess is that is so long ago no ones expectations are going to be based on something that happened before their great great great grandparents were born.  What happened in our lifetimes or in the more recent past is always going to skew perceptions so we would probably still be lamenting "things are bad" compared to our recent framework.  

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, Ji said:

maybe i looked at the wrong 12z gfs but it looked horrific

it looks great for Winter Park where I will be PD weekend...Ya'll should come along.  

[mattie g]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Maybe it's time I admit I was wrong about how the warm W atlantic SSTs would affect us. I thought it would create a juicy baroclinic zone that makes any wave go BOOM. Instead it just pops a ridge up top and forces storms to cut. No cold air either, no CAD.

Makes me wonder how in the world Ocean City got buried by those 4 bomb cyclones (if I counted correctly) in the last 5 years. 

Because people are making sweeping comments about larger-scale issues based on a run of the GFS at 200 hours. It's confirmation bias.

You simply cannot "blame" one specific potential failure on something like GW.

[Maestrobjwa]

Dang that was humiliating...I knew my go back to the guitar snap back was gonna backfire somehow, lol

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not true. I know three--two married (not to cats but actual women) and one getting close. Not true at all. So @Jiya couldn't be more wrong

It was a joke... 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It was a joke... 

I didn't think it was. I thought he set out to insult me in humiliating fashion because I mocked his "Go back to the piano dude" comment the other day (which I thought was unwarranted) by saying "Go back to the guitar". He got me back with a good humiliation with that response, so I gotta give him credit lol

[SnowenOutThere]

40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But hearing it won't snow doesn't lessen your enthusiasm for weather, despite snow being what got ya interested in the first place?

Nope, I’ve accepted it won’t snow most likely and still think any sort of weather is cool, it’s why I stick around here during the summer. BTW if the weather is “boring” that typically means it’s nice outside so then I get to actually go outside, it’s a win win. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I didn't think it was. I thought he set out to insult me because I mocked his "Go back to the piano dude" comment the other day by saying "Go back to the guitar". He got me back with a good humiliation with that response.

I am almost positive Ji was just trying to be funny.  But if he was actually being mean spirited, highly doubt it, then the way you responded wouldn't exactly have been the most effective way to deal with it anyways.   

[wxdude64]

So from reading the past three or so pages I get that WHEN (or if) it ever snows again while playing an instrument I am more than likely to pick up a few cats and possible sides... 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Alright, that was a fun tangent. I'm going to step away for a bit. Can someone please hit the reboot button and get us back on the rails please...from this:

To this:

Well we are about to go from "its warm everywhere" to "its just warm HERE".  Baby steps and all that jazz.  

[clueless]

One thing we haven’t mentioned is that severe season is year round now. Pretty horrific for a good portion of this country. Or am I just imagining this?  

[SnowGolfBro]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well we are about to go from "its warm everywhere" to "its just warm HERE".  Baby steps and all that jazz.  

If that verifies I am golfing my ball that weekend. Maybe a trip to Williamsburg…

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

If that verifies I am golfing my ball that weekend. Maybe a trip to Williamsburg…

you know it  will verify...for warmth it never misses.  there should be some impressive departures for Jan.  I am not sure we had one daytime high below freezing. 

[Paleocene]

To improve the mood before the Euro runs I will post this picture that I took on 1/14/2019, when we got 6+" in a nice strip right across the DMV. This is on the northwest branch of the Anacostia near Hyattsville.

 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

19 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I didn't think it was. I thought he set out to insult me in humiliating fashion because I mocked his "Go back to the piano dude" comment the other day (which I thought was unwarranted) by saying "Go back to the guitar". He got me back with a good humiliation with that response, so I gotta give him credit lol

Quite a "Liszt" of "Grieg"ances there!!

(ETA:  OK, I'll "Bach" off with the lousy puns, I'm done "Chopin" around for laughs!)

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Quite a "Liszt" of "Grieg"ances there!!

Ya can't Tellamann his instrument isn't attractive and not expect a comeBach

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya can't Tellamann his instrument isn't attractive and not expect a comeBach

GEFS looks brutal through the end as the trough looks to dump again in the west with the SER controlling the story line for us. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, BristowWx said:

GEFS looks brutal through the end as the trough looks to dump again in the west with the SER controlling the story line for us. 

Ya responded to that comment with this? Lol

[psuhoffman]

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

Heading up tomorrow.  Will be in the pool/hot tub tomorrow afternoon and on the slopes with my kids Sunday and Monday.  There are ways to survive this with your sanity intact.  

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/skidder-slope-live-cam

Heading up tomorrow.  Will be in the pool/hot tub tomorrow afternoon and on the slopes with my kids Sunday and Monday.  There are ways to survive this with your sanity intact.  

Enjoy it bro. I was thinking of taking my family up this weekend too, but my kid got sick. Might try again in Feb if we don’t torch so bad. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

GEFS looks brutal through the end as the trough looks to dump again in the west with the SER controlling the story line for us. 

The GEFS flips the pattern in the Pacific exactly opposite...totally reverses all the blues and reds...and the result is exactly the same for us.  

[Heisy]

GFS OP advertising a PV split around 300 hours. Not sure if we’ll get a SSWE, but maybe our only hope this winter? Wouldn’t feel the effects until late feb/March I think anyway. I’ll let smarter people who understand that topic better talk about it.


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