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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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JB Fins

JB Fins

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My 2C is that even with trends being what they are, we will still get snow here, still have occasional big storms, and still have nice winters here for many many years to come. Will they be as frequent as I’d like or as before? Doubtful. But I don’t expect them to go extinct. And so I’ll keep watching and waiting.

Wasn't sure if that 2C was for two cents or two degrees Celsius.  Sorry, couldn't resist.

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
stormtracker

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

To preface this, you know way more than me and I am playing devil's advocate, but how much not as bad would it look if you went back an additional 1 or 2 years and included 2009 and 2010? That seems like it COULD be a bit flukey.

I started the current period because NWS starts climo periods after the turn of a decade.  So eventually our climo will start with 2011.  It wasn't meant to skew the data.  I used 18 instead of 30 because I wanted to put it in a reference we can understand...but 18 is the shortest period you can use and still claim much statistical significance.   But it doesn't change the equation as much as you would think for 2 reasons.  First going with 7 years before the bad stretch also brings a historically snowy season into the period of record for the previous "least snowy" period on record also.  Not quite as snowy as 2010 but close enough that it mutes the impact of changing the years.  Second, it does change the equation with the mean some but it doesn't impact the median or probabilities of snowfall season to season much at all.  And that has been my point all along...our mean is skewed by a couple good seasons a decade but the REAL story is how much worse the typical seasons in between those rare unicorn snowy years are becoming.  Since we spend 80% of our lives in those years...what its like in those years is actually more important IMO to our sanity that the fact it snows a shit ton (its a technical term) in years like 2003 and 2010 and 2014.   It's all arbitrary where you start and end a period.  If we start a period with the snowiest year on record that kinda skews things the other way...and the fact that starting the current "18 year period" with the snowiest year ever still doesn't make this period look that good is indicative of how bad its been.  

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SnowenOutThere

SnowenOutThere

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Real question: So, with little payoff so far, and if things are indeed getting worse...then why do you do this hobby? Just for the science or? (I actually wonder about that for others here as well).

Because when I was 5 there was a snow shower and I remember going outside after it snowed for 20 minutes and sweeping the dusting we got off the deck and thinking how did that happen. Ever since I’ve just been fascinated with the weather but hearing that it won’t snow won’t ruin my day because at this point it’s what I expect and what has happened my whole life. Not to mention snow is the least of my climate/weather related concerns going forward. 

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Its a Breeze

Its a Breeze

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

To preface this, you know way more than me and I am playing devil's advocate, but how much not as bad would it look if you went back an additional 1 or 2 years and included 2009 and 2010? That seems like it COULD be a bit flukey.

Also to play advocate (and to make it abundantly clear, I am in no way saying climate change isn't real) but you don't even have to go back any additional years. You can make the case this "bad cycle" is location dependent. For the folks DCA south at least, half of the past 10 years have been at or above normal with no consistency on the below normal years...

Average departure from normal in below avg. years: -8.56"

Average departure from normal in above avg. years:  8.65"

 

(also has anyone brought up that we've been stuck in La Nina for like 7 years now?)

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Because when I was 5 there was a snow shower and I remember going outside after it snowed for 20 minutes and sweeping the dusting we got off the deck and thinking how did that happen. Ever since I’ve just been fascinated with the weather but hearing that it won’t snow won’t ruin my day because at this point it’s what I expect and what has happened my whole life. Not to mention snow is the least of my climate/weather related concerns going forward. 

But hearing it won't snow doesn't lessen your enthusiasm for weather, despite snow being what got ya interested in the first place?

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beavis1729

beavis1729

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We don’t need to have the why debate in here. I was just trying to end the “it’s not really that bad” claims. It is that bad. The why debate can happen in another place. 

To add some non-DC area perspective, if helpful:  Chicago and Milwaukee have also not really had a winter so far. 

Chicago's greatest depth has been 1", and only for a few days during the brief pre-Christmas arctic outbreak.  Milwaukee has been similar, even as their depth hit 2" briefly.  Both have had essentially no snow since Christmas. 

NYC and Boston haven't had any snow at all.

East of the Rockies and south of 45N, it has been absolutely horrendous...with no discernable end in sight. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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5 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

surprised no one looked at the 12z gfs, looks a lot more wintry compared to previous runs

Its my fault.  I saw a bunch of "its not really that bad" posts and simply wanted to show "it is that bad, worse ever actually" and that sparked another climate debate which isn't really what I wanted to do.  We've had that several times already recently.  But the problem is there really isn't much else to discuss either so these tangents take over.  One decent long range GFS op run isn't really worth that much discussion either.  

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I wonder what this forum would have been like in most of the 70s and 80s and early 90s? What would we have blamed back then?

Anyway. Some red tagger on another forum is using 1862 as an analog for this year.  Anyone remember what happened in Feb that year?

@mitchnick probably remembers  :guitar:

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Ji

Ji

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Its my fault.  I saw a bunch of "its not really that bad" posts and simply wanted to show "it is that bad, worse ever actually" and that sparked another climate debate which isn't really what I wanted to do.  We've had that several times already recently.  But the problem is there really isn't much else to discuss either so these tangents take over.  One decent long range GFS op run isn't really worth that much discussion either.  

maybe i looked at the wrong 12z gfs but it looked horrific

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You just said what I was trying to say way better in way less words. 

But what is "before". Folks keep saying "before, it would have snowed in this pattern". I am willing to bet if we started the season on schedule and up North had a snowpack we WOULD have had more LL cold available. I'm just skeptical of the "it probably won't ever snow again because of (fill in the blank)" crew. Your points are valid. There is science behind a good portion of it. But things fluctuate (change). I don't think our best days of all time are behind us. Nature has a funny (sometimes cruel) way of balancing thing out over time. We can look at TODAY....the west coast has been in an epic worst of all time no end ever in sight drought for 7-10 years. Things balance out. Nature always wins. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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39 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now it sounds like the hobby is making YOU miserable, lol

I am a very analytical person, I enjoy a debate, and I like science.  This hobby isn't making me miserable.  I still enjoy the discussion and debate around the science.  Yes I love snow.  Yes I want it to snow more.  Its annoying me that its not snowing but that is not making me miserable.  I am about to go to lunch and I will be enjoying it.  Later today I will pick up my children and I will be very happy to give them a hug.  We will enjoy dinner.  This weekend we are going to snowshoe and will have a wonderful time.  The fact it didn't snow is not going to ruin my day or my life.  On a list of things I am more upset about or concerned with...whether Jalen Hurts shoulder will be healthy enough by next weekend is higher on the list than if it will snow.  I can go see snow whenever I want somewhere...I can't go see an Eagles super bowl anytime I want.  My failed marriage was something worth being upset over... snow is insignificant compared to REAL problems.  This hobby is an escape from real problems.  I like to analyze.  I like to debate.  I actually enjoy this.  Yea I would enjoy it MORE if it was snowing but I would enjoy it less if it wasn't AND I wasn't analyzing the weather.  

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh you seriously moving?

Not right now...not until the kids are older.  But the next 18 year period starting in 5 years....by the time we get that far into THAT period I likely won't be here anymore.  I do plan to move somewhere closer to skiing and more snow once the kids are older.  

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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I know this is banter but don't really care since there's not much pleasant to talk about...

@Ji Guess who one of the first pop star musicians (the kind women fawned over) who drew crowds was? A PIANIST--Franz Liszt. And you can go down the list...that stereotype is just not true. Got two friends that are pianists...Nah three! Two married, and one getting close to be.

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

But we’re not supposed to talk about that in here. We’re supposed to just endlessly chase fake day 15 patterns and pretend this is normal. 

I don't think you get what ppl are saying. I am not really disagreeing with this whatsoever tbh. But the mods have made it clear there is a place to discuss that and most of your debate points are 100% valid and justified. I think some folks just get want to discuss models and current wx without having to sift thru posts that essentially say "sucks to be you, a snowlover, because these are the new times we are in and we will never go back to the way things were so too bad for you and deal with it". I personally don't care one way or the other. I'm just playing devils advocate and stoking the fire because it's boring. Weather/nature gonna do what it wants. 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I wonder what this forum would have been like in most of the 70s and 80s and early 90s? What would we have blamed back then?

'70s...bad clothing styles

'80s...bad hair

'90s...bad music

(I jest here, of course, LOL!!) :lol:

17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Anyway. Some red tagger on another forum is using 1862 as an analog for this year.  Anyone remember what happened in Feb that year?

Probably some weather weenie soldier during the Civil war was complaining how it was a Nina and there wasn't much snow!

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