January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[psuhoffman]

Lets go... the we're due index has got to kick in soon...  we'll even just take a dead man's bounce at this point.  

[pazzo83]

we just bought a house (first time living in a house in like 20 years) - i need to shovel my own gd snow at least once.  Come on.

[Solution Man]

Snow, somebody said snow?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, pazzo83 said:

we just bought a house (first time living in a house in like 20 years) - i need to shovel my own gd snow at least once.  Come on.

did you buy a snowblower?  if so we know the problem now...

[Kmlwx]

Whoever went out and bought a snow blower or electric shovel in the past few years really needs to be kicked out of the Mid-Atlantic. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

did you buy a snowblower?  if so we know the problem now...

Ninja'd  

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

we just bought a house (first time living in a house in like 20 years) - i need to shovel my own gd snow at least once.  Come on.

Congrats, we just did the same in Silver Spring. The previous owner left behind two snowshovels, and I brought my own that I already had, so damn it I'm going to be out there with my 9 year old shoveling enormous piles out of our driveway before March!

[WxUSAF]

Shit the blinds? Funny, but I’m editing that.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Shit the blinds? Funny, but I’m editing that.

Must have been a typo 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya2xifdO_l0

 

[Chris78]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

did you buy a snowblower?  if so we know the problem now...

I bought a new one 2 winters ago.

I'm about ready to give it away so we see snow again. 

[Kleimax]

Just like that, GFS has a storm threat Jan 22-24

[Ralph Wiggum]

This will trend S for all of us to cash in. Jan 23rd is the center of another brief(?) window.

[WxUSAF]

With a very active pattern over the next 10+ days, the last 2 GFS and GGEM runs show how eventually one of those can work out for us for some frozen precipitation. One cutter goes through and blows up as a transient 50-50 low and provides enough cold air and/or a far enough south storm track for the subsequent storm to put us on the happy side of the thermal boundary. But even this is still after January 20 as the pattern is hopefully transitioning.

[DE2PA]

Does Hoffman control the weather? Some are asking..

[H2O]

36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Shit the blinds? Funny, but I’m editing that.

How about shat the blinds?

[peribonca]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

How about shat the blinds?

Shart

[cbmclean]

Can't post pics at work, but look at 00z GEPS at 318 hrs.  Looks like decent 500 MB presentation But temp anomalies are disappointing.

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Does Hoffman control the weather? Some are asking..

nope. If he did--it would snow more than once every 7 years at his house

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Shit the blinds? Funny, but I’m editing that.

shit the blinds was better, imo

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Kleimax said:

Just like that, GFS has a storm threat Jan 22-24

Day 14 is the new day 10.  Inflation.  It hits hard. 

[BlizzardNole]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

This will trend S for all of us to cash in. Jan 23rd is the center of another brief(?) window.

Ji said in the other thread that this is during his work trip to FL so it's locked in

[Ji]

there is a like an immovable wall

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is a like an immovable wall

No worries. It will displace and lock-in for us on March 18…

[WxUSAF]

Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern. 

ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while

[jayyy]

Yeah…GEFS isn’t as good for us with this 12z run. Slight can kick, but more importantly it keeps the ridge axis well off the west coast. That teleconnects to more SE ridge and hence has a cold and dry, warm and wet sorta pattern. 

EPS or bust


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[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while

Did a met just post the hour 366 GFS snowfall map? We really are desperate for anything.

[jayyy]

I like the 23-25th window for some potential wintry weather. At the moment it appears to be a back to back storm situation where we’re going to have to rely on the first storm (likely a cutter) to be a make-shift 50/50, which could in turn force the storm track south of us for storm #2 and keep enough cold air in place to make something happen.

Another “we need the timing to be right” ordeal doesn’t sound great obviously, but it is our next “threat” nonetheless.


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[jayyy]

Did a met just post the hour 366 GFS snowfall map? We really are desperate for anything.

It’s the GEFS, but yeah, desperate times mang.


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[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

ironically, this is the snowiest GEFS run that we’ve seen in a while

Lots of cold air available nearby at least, but it’s probably one of those cutter—boundary wave sort of patterns that @psuhoffman is dreading. Crap ton better than we have now though I guess.