January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Ji]

Was told by the mods that allow the word F* and selectively enforce other rules (sorry the lawyer in me) no thread for Wed Storm until Tuesday.  I plan to break the rule at 12Z tomorrow if warranted.

I hate this track. The angle is wrong and it's snows in PA before we get it!

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

20 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Was told by the mods that allow the word F* and selectively enforce other rules (sorry the lawyer in me) no thread for Wed Storm until Tuesday.  I plan to break the rule at 12Z tomorrow if warranted.

I hate this track. The angle is wrong and it's snows in PA before we get it!

I don’t think Wed. Is a big storm for us.  But if we get what the GFS is selling I will take it!!!! 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EPS for Wed.  I personally take 35…

[AtlanticWx]

12 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS for Wed.  I personally take 35…

did it improve?

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, AtlanticWx said:

did it improve?

About the same….

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

What happened to the midweek threat thread? Lol. Anyway 18z Euro looks threatening at 90.

I hate this.  It looks good, but snowing in PA before us is a bad sign usually.  By the time the precip gets to us, it'll be warmer

[yoda]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I hate this.  It looks good, but snowing in PA before us is a bad sign usually.  By the time the precip gets to us, it'll be warmer

Agree... but I just want a few hours of seeing flakes.  Two hours.  Please.  Make it so

[AtlanticWx]

59 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hate this.  It looks good, but snowing in PA before us is a bad sign usually.  By the time the precip gets to us, it'll be warmer

we don't even need that much of a tick east for the good stuff

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Was told by the mods that allow the word F* and selectively enforce other rules (sorry the lawyer in me) no thread for Wed Storm until Tuesday.  I plan to break the rule at 12Z tomorrow if warranted.

If you want to kill it, make a thread 

[Ji]

Wow

[pazzo83]

6 hours ago, windycutter said:

The SER is relentless.

lol at this rate we're gonna start having a Mediterranean climate for winter

[pazzo83]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow

wow - i mean that's honestly insane.  what can you say at this point?

[BristowWx]

I’m hoping this is just some really bad extended luck.  It’s gonna be hard to undo the Atlantic warmth if that’s the culprit for our region.  How do you cool it down if nothing can penetrate it  

[Heisy]

wow - i mean that's honestly insane.  what can you say at this point?

I mean this is the pattern at time of the storm, not really a SECS look. We’re boned until blocking shows up or the PV somehow migrates far enough SE


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[psuhoffman]

7 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

there's literally two forums on this board AND a special thread in this sub-forum that YOU started for that discussion. It can be discussed plenty. I read in that thread, the discussion is good!  But why can't you just keep it there? How is that so hard for you to adhere to? You are a teacher, you cool with your class rules just being ignored by your students? 

You misunderstand. I’m not saying people want want to dig into CC. what i meant was I think some even avoid ancillary topics like discussing why the SE ridge is so persistent simply because some of the analysis could overlap with CC and then some others go nuts about it. But we need to have the discussions. I’m not 100% sure it’s CC.  What I am sure of is over the last 7 years anomalous things have been happening. I suspect things. I don’t KNOW.  Maybe it’s all a confluence if other non AGW factors. But we don’t have the conversation because imo because no one wants to even get into a discussion that might even get close to the topic for fear of the reaction. It’s silly.   

[fujiwara79]

oceanic heat content has been increasing for decades.  so you'd expect to see more episodes of oceanic ridging.  it wouldn't surprise me if eventually our new prime snow climo will shift towards feb 15 - through mar 15th.

[Ji]

Lol...euro 10 day looks nothing like euro 10 day from 12z

[CAPE]

There is a decent signal for something other than rain across the MA between Feb 2-6th on the 0z GEFS. Multiple members depict snow/ice during that period, with several keying on the lower Mid Atlantic- a good sign imo to see suggestions of frozen to our south at this range. That possibility has been zero for the winter to this point. 

As depicted the pattern is driven by -EPO and displaced TPV. That gets the cold close and it may finally push southeastward through our area by the beginning of Feb. No real help in the NAO domain. The tendency for a ridge in the SE/ W Atlantic is going to be persistent.

 

 

[IronTy]

I've posted multiple times on this board and also on the WB board that we (the 95 corridor) were living through a golden period for monster storms as the Atlantic warmed and there was still cold air around.  Eventually I said that the Atlantic would get too warm and the east coast would hardly get any storms at all (of the snow type).  So far I'm right.  

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEPS, maybe it will finally be right….

[Bob Chill]

7 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You misunderstand. I’m not saying people want want to dig into CC. what i meant was I think some even avoid ancillary topics like discussing why the SE ridge is so persistent simply because some of the analysis could overlap with CC and then some others go nuts about it. But we need to have the discussions. I’m not 100% sure it’s CC.  What I am sure of is over the last 7 years anomalous things have been happening. I suspect things. I don’t KNOW.  Maybe it’s all a confluence if other non AGW factors. But we don’t have the conversation because imo because no one wants to even get into a discussion that might even get close to the topic for fear of the reaction. It’s silly.   

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculating "why". The rest just want to know whats possible with a specific setup with no mention of 1960 or "coulda woulda shoulda". There's a fatigue here about this and there are a lot of people directly or indirectly saying as much. It would go a long ways in improving the "fun factor" here if we simply just stopped debating/beating. Nobody wants to avoid topics and nobody wants to keep getting hit over the head with the same stuff. Everything has been said. Let's try and give it a rest 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculating "why". The rest just want to know whats possible with a specific setup with no mention of 1960 or "coulda woulda shoulda". There's a fatigue here about this and there are a lot of people directly or indirectly saying as much. It would go a long ways in improving the "fun factor" here if we simply just stopped debating/beating. Nobody wants to avoid topics and nobody wants to keep getting hit over the head with the same stuff. Everything has been said. Let's try and give it a rest 

This^

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculating "why". The rest just want to know whats possible with a specific setup with no mention of 1960 or "coulda woulda shoulda". There's a fatigue here about this and there are a lot of people directly or indirectly saying as much. It would go a long ways in improving the "fun factor" here if we simply just stopped debating/beating. Nobody wants to avoid topics and nobody wants to keep getting hit over the head with the same stuff. Everything has been said. Let's try and give it a rest 

This is your best post. 

[mappy]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculating "why". The rest just want to know whats possible with a specific setup with no mention of 1960 or "coulda woulda shoulda". There's a fatigue here about this and there are a lot of people directly or indirectly saying as much. It would go a long ways in improving the "fun factor" here if we simply just stopped debating/beating. Nobody wants to avoid topics and nobody wants to keep getting hit over the head with the same stuff. Everything has been said. Let's try and give it a rest 

Thanks Bob, appreciate this post. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

Take it fwiw

 

[North Balti Zen]

Thanks BobC…much appreciated post.

[snowmagnet]

21 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Take it fwiw

 

Has the control ever been right? 

[BristowWx]

20 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Take it fwiw

 

Reasonable post.  He’s just looking at the models we are…what he is not saying if it’s an in and out or will retreat first sign of moisture. No one knows that I suppose 

[Weather Will]

The February torch Mets became very confident when they saw the MJO forecasted into Phase 4 ( warm phase for February).  Last couple of days the MJO has trended toward going into the null phase rather than Phase 4. Maybe  that explains some of the volatility in the longer range models.  It can also give us hope that February is not a shut the blinds month.

[jayyy]

The February torch Mets became very confident when they saw the MJO forecasted into Phase 4 ( warm phase for February).  Last couple of days the MJO has trended toward going into the null phase rather than Phase 4. Maybe  that explains some of the volatility in the longer range models.  It can also give us hope that February is not a shut the blinds month.

I’ve never bought into this idea of a wall to wall torch in February. Especially after the warmth we just had in January (zero days below freezing for highs) We don’t typically see two very warm months back to back like that. Do we go through a 7-10 day window of warmth? Perhaps very warm? Probably. February is volatile like that, especially during a niña… but the MJO, among other teleconnections, are just so hard to nail down in the long range.

We all know we’ve had an epically terrible winter so far, and while it’s possible we strike out entirely, it’s not likely. Got to think we see some chances arise February into early march, even if they’re marginal in nature, and even if there’s warmth mixed in there. Unfortunately the progressive regime won’t allow a prolonged 3+ week period of winter weather, but I also don’t think we simply torch because the calendars turned to the month of February.


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