January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Something has to break our way eventually right? Even if it's just better confluence in front of a cutter to give us an inch or 2 before it's washed away.

 

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chick weed never stopped growing this winter and is everywhere here. 

Don't be too stressed, in a few years winters will be too hot for even chickweed to survive.  Saguaro cactus will be the new invasive species in the garden.  

[yoda]

Don't worry. I'm sure the storm the 18z GFS has at 360 on will be the one

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Don't worry. I'm sure the storm the 18z GFS has at 360 on will be the one

 

 

 

 

Oh you saw this 

and thought it has to be good and didn’t wait for this…

to load  

 

[yoda]

I saw it... I just want an inch of snow lol. Besides, I'm using the weenie CAD rule

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

I saw it... I just want an inch of snow lol. Besides, I'm using the weenie CAD rule

 

 

 

 

That’s pretty identical to the PD2 setup actually. Only difference is the cold gets bullied right out despite the 1045 arctic high. Lol 

[Rhino16]

1 hour ago, IronTy said:

Don't be too stressed, in a few years winters will be too hot for even chickweed to survive.  Saguaro cactus will be the new invasive species in the garden.  

And the huntsman spiders will make a new home in the backyard.

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh you saw this 

and thought it has to be good and didn’t wait for this…

to load  

 

Yup that’s quite a load

[CAPE]

384 hours out on an op run. It's close enough!

Yes, apparently it is meteorologically possible to snow south of 40n with a look like this... 

 

-EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO, in a Nina.

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

384 hours out on an op run. It's close enough!

Yes, apparently it is meteorologically possible to snow south of 40n with a look like this... 

 

-EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO, in a Nina.

Is that a -EPO?

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

384 hours out on an op run. It's close enough!

Yes, apparently it is meteorologically possible to snow south of 40n with a look like this... 

 

-EPO/-PNA/+AO/+NAO, in a Nina.

We don’t always need a perfect h5, this produced a 20” snow 

 But let’s be fair the run that snows doesn’t look like the ensembles. 

What makes it kinda work on the op is a nice pna ridge and confluence from the lope rotating through 50/50 at the right time.  There are some ensemble members that have hits too but they have a more favorable pna and Atlantic than that mean. There are lots of god awful members that take the waves day 10-15 way to our north too. 
 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Is that a -EPO?

Probably not. Neutral trending positive.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Probably not. Neutral trending positive.

Let’s get to the worst possible pattern..+EPO-PNA +NAO+AO…phase 4 on the MJO…I want to see the worst they can offer add in an SER  and a WAR bigger than 1941…bring it on…do your worst.   I just had a 120min IPA

[BristowWx]

I said worst 3 times in one post. That is what this winter has done to me.  

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I said worst 3 times in one post. That is what this winter has done to me.  

The worst part was it’s the worst post about the worst winter 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I said worst 3 times in one post. That is what this winter has done to me.  

a 120 can help facilitate that.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The worst part was it’s the worst post about the worst winter 

The absolute WURST! 

[psuhoffman]

This has been our mean h5 for the whole winter. 

That’s not awesome but it’s certainly not a mean that would strike fear into us.  That historically would just be average imo.
 

By comparison this is the mean h5 of past really awful years that featured almost no snow in Baltimore to this point.  This is what an actual awful no hope pattern should look like…

[BristowWx]

I never knew 1950 was a bad year.  I bet it still wasn’t a shut out.  

[psuhoffman]

Just now, BristowWx said:

I never knew 1950 was a bad year.  I bet it still wasn’t a shut out.  

0.7” at Baltimore. But this was the pattern…

look familiar?  That’s the pattern likely coming up for Feb as the mjo enters warm phases.  That’s what a no hope shutout should look like!  But we haven’t been in that.  We’ve actually had a blah but not god awful mean longwave pattern on avg so far.  It hasn’t been that bad Imo.  Certainly not good.  The best analogs I can find are generally below avg but close to median winters.  We’ve been getting shutout results from a pattern that shouldn’t be THAT bad Imo.  
problem is we might be about to enter a pattern that actually should be that bad!  Lol 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I never knew 1950 was a bad year.  I bet it still wasn’t a shut out.  

0.5 of the 0.7 came in January...so not even THAT year was thar month a total shut out, Iol

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

0.5 of the 0.7 came in January...so not even THAT year was thar month a total shut out, Iol

That was one of only 2 single digit winters ever at Westminster. Local records here at Manchester area don’t go back that far.  But even that year Westminster had a couple inches by now. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

0.5 of the 0.7 came in January...so not even THAT year was thar month a total shut out, Iol

Still makes it seem better that 73 years ago there were snow weenies wondering WTF is going on watching 1 of 3 TV channels 

[psuhoffman]

2019 and 2021 still bother me a lot.  2017 and 2018 were about what they should have been given the pattern. 2020 was rightfully a dreg year.  Would have been dreg in any era with that bad pac and +++A0/NAO. 
 

But 2019 there was no reason with the pac ridge constantly centered into western Canada and a decent AO that the pna kept going so negative and the SE ridge/WAR kept popping.  That wasn’t right. The wavelength should have worked out for us but the SE ridge kept going ape. That’s when I first started feeling like the problem wasn’t really the pac. That was a Nino. The pac pattern was ok. But the SE ridge kept bullying the pattern and forcing trough into the SW even with a ridge poking over into west Canada. 
 

Same in 2021. Despite crazy blocking and imo a mediocre but not awful pac the same kept happening. 
 

now I saw some of those same trends in December especially this year!
 

Everyone is waiting for the good years to come again but one reason Im so negative is imo the reason we’re in an unprecedented long bad run is that those should have been the good years but whatever is causing the SE ridge won over an otherwise pretty favorable pattern.  
 

Sorry if none of that makes sense. I’ve had a few whiskeys. Cheers. 

[BristowWx]

Currently watching the movie Fatal Attraction from 1987…no idea why but  I’m guessing this guy is not concerned about the lack of snow and wondering why a rabbit is boiling on his stove…quite the diversion from our current situation 

[Volcanic Winter]

3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Currently watching the movie Fatal Attraction from 1987…no idea why but  I’m guessing this guy is not concerned about the lack of snow and wondering why a rabbit is boiling on his stove…quite the diversion from our current situation 

Know any movies where the killer murders the SE ridge?

[cbmclean]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2019 and 2021 still bother me a lot.  2017 and 2018 were about what they should have been given the pattern. 2020 was rightfully a dreg year.  Would have been dreg in any era with that bad pac and +++A0/NAO. 
 

But 2019 there was no reason with the pac ridge constantly centered into western Canada and a decent AO that the pna kept going so negative and the SE ridge/WAR kept popping.  That wasn’t right. The wavelength should have worked out for us but the SE ridge kept going ape. That’s when I first started feeling like the problem wasn’t really the pac. That was a Nino. The pac pattern was ok. But the SE ridge kept bullying the pattern and forcing trough into the SW even with a ridge poking over into west Canada. 
 

Same in 2021. Despite crazy blocking and imo a mediocre but not awful pac the same kept happening. 
 

now I saw some of those same trends in December especially this year!
 

Everyone is waiting for the good years to come again but one reason Im so negative is imo the reason we’re in an unprecedented long bad run is that those should have been the good years but whatever is causing the SE ridge won over an otherwise pretty favorable pattern.  
 

Sorry if none of that makes sense. I’ve had a few whiskeys. Cheers. 

Your weather memory is better than mine but for 2019 I have a distinct memory of the MJO going ape in the warm phases.  That enhanced MC convection drives a SE ridge right?  Now I'm not trying to make an "excuse" because the strengthened Pacific warm pool is one of the mechanisms that has been mentioned for how we have been losing the margins.  

[BristowWx]

She just saw the GFS …and the rabbit.  

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

This has been our mean h5 for the whole winter. 

That’s not awesome but it’s certainly not a mean that would strike fear into us.  That historically would just be average imo.
 

 

 

I continue to be fascinated by the lack of a strong SE ridge in that composite.  Goes to show that composites do not show the whole story.  The SER has always been there when it mattered.

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I continue to be fascinated by the lack of a strong SE ridge in that composite.  Goes to show that composites do not show the whole story.  The SER has always been there when it mattered.

Dunno we did have some troughs make it into the east but it was just too warm anyways so it didn’t matter.