January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[DE2PA]

Careful @Maestrobjwa you’re going to bring the wrath back to LR thread.

[WxUSAF]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:48 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

The GEPS actually did shift towards a cut west, unfortunately. Last GEPS talk I'll add - here are member lows + what its actually outputting. Mix of hits because of a good (coastal) track and some thumps. This doesn't paint the *full* picture -- if people want I could make gifs of both plots. But it's the GEPS so maybe not worth the effort haha

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In general, a farther cut west can sometimes work for a better front end if there’s more confluence over NE and we can get enough precipitation overrunning the warm front. Trick is the precip comes with the WAA, so there’s a balance there when our airmass is eternally marginal. But maybe that’s what the GEPS is keying on.  

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:57 PM, DE2PA said:

Careful @Maestrobjwa you’re going to bring the wrath back to LR thread.

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We're moving on.

[NorthArlington101]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:57 PM, WxUSAF said:

In general, a farther cut west can sometimes work for a better front end if there’s more confluence over NE and we can get enough precipitation overrunning the warm front. Trick is the precip comes with the WAA, so there’s a balance there when our airmass is eternally marginal. But maybe that’s what the GEPS is keying on.  

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GEFS was quietly better for likely the same reason - getting carried pretty hard by a member or two that goes nuts though. Curious to see the EURO/EPS -- which is what winter wx tracking is all about!

[DarkSharkWX]

[NorthArlington101]

As we wait for the EURO, the UKIE gets most everyone on the board with a quick 1-3" thump.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Check out how the PNA changes right when there is a 500mb vortex over Greenland (+PNA-+NAO). As long as this condition continues, it's not really going to snow in the Mid Atlantic. 

[TSSN+]

Please bring something idc if we get 1” just want snow. 

[NorthArlington101]

12z has maybe a hair stronger push of the confluence compared to 00z looking at hr111... see if it does enough to thump us.

Cutting straight to Detroit too unfortunately 

[NorthArlington101]

  On 1/20/2023 at 6:22 PM, TSSN+ said:

Please bring something idc if we get 1” just want snow. 

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Not this time - maybe a pity T-1" for favored spots. 

[Paleocene]

  On 1/20/2023 at 6:24 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

Not this time - maybe a pity T-1" for favored spots. 

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worth noting that euro had the low about 100 miles south in central tennessee at 00z last night, for the same time next weds. headed towards GFS steeper cut solution but maybe we're getting better confluence/colder air

[TSSN+]

Can’t buy a win 

[ryanconway63]

Can somebody start a thread for the Feb 2 event

[Solution Man]

  On 1/20/2023 at 6:54 PM, ryanconway63 said:

Can somebody start a thread for the Feb 2 event

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[Heisy]

-EPO could push PV south, but -PNA and no blocking could make the SE ridge flex. Making it another decent pattern for Midwest/NNE as we head into Feb.

Sigh…


.

[Eskimo Joe]

Eric Webb has thrown in the towel

 

[Mikeymac5306]

  On 1/20/2023 at 7:41 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb has thrown in the towel

 

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Better get some tow chains to pull it out of the mud too. 

[Weather Will]

It does not take a met to know what is getting ready to happen the next 2 weeks as we strain to squeeze out an inch before we change to rain with every storm.  Head to interior New England.  WB 12Z EPS.

[JTA66]

  On 1/20/2023 at 7:41 PM, Eskimo Joe said:

Eric Webb has thrown in the towel

 

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Maybe it means he's getting ready to put the plow attachment on it.     

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Yeah, this is our window.. 4th sd -anomaly over Greenland, 4 ridges spanning from it,  during +PNA

Pacific-PNA pattern reverses, model at this range is 0.85 correlation

gets worse (orientation of -PNA)

[nw baltimore wx]

A low on MS and AL border on January 22 and we are going to get rain. Wtf?

[WesternFringe]

  On 1/20/2023 at 7:33 PM, Solution Man said:

 

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Shit the blinds makes so much more sense now

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

  On 1/20/2023 at 7:33 PM, Solution Man said:

 

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  On 1/20/2023 at 8:53 PM, WesternFringe said:

Shit the blinds makes so much more sense now

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One thing for certain...those ain't snow rollers on the window!!!

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:37 PM, IronTy said:

Forsythias at the top of my driveway are in bloom as of this morning.  Crab grass won't be far behind.  Guess I better sharpen the mower blade.  

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Chick weed never stopped growing this winter and is everywhere here. 

[TowsonTownT]

Well, you can't blame me. I've been driving around this entire winter without an ice scraper. 

[GATECH]

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:27 PM, TowsonTownT said:

Well, you can't blame me. I've been driving around this entire winter without an ice scraper. 

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Livin on the edge…I broke my snow shovel while cleaning out the garage in August and never replaced it, so it’s not me either. 

[Chris78]

Something has to break our way eventually right? Even if it's just better confluence in front of a cutter to give us an inch or 2 before it's washed away.

[Kay]

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:27 PM, TowsonTownT said:

Well, you can't blame me. I've been driving around this entire winter without an ice scraper. 

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SAME

[TSSN+]

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:38 PM, Chris78 said:

Something has to break our way eventually right? Even if it's just better confluence in front of a cutter to give us an inch or 2 before it's washed away.

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[IronTy]

  On 1/20/2023 at 9:08 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chick weed never stopped growing this winter and is everywhere here. 

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Don't be too stressed, in a few years winters will be too hot for even chickweed to survive.  Saguaro cactus will be the new invasive species in the garden.