January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Heisy]

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…


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[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

We probably have a week or so the end of the month into early Feb to luck into something with colder air in place, but trends on guidance don't look great beyond that. A lot more blue up top. Better h5 looks will probably show up on guidance for mid to late Feb, then we can do this all over again. Third time the charm lol? Dying Nina plus strat stuff may give a us a chance.

I haven't given up on salvaging some snow this winter.  I do think we might get an opportunity next week.  A week of straight flow off the arctic will establish a colder regime.  But as I said yesterday its still disappointing that even with runs that have a severely displaced PV in a really good location with a week of straight polar flow...it still seems like the boundary want's to set up pretty far north.  The cold just isn't that impressive given the longwave pattern and not expansive enough for our latitude on the majority of runs.  But its close enough that it wouldn't shock me if we get a wave to work in that period.   

After that it's probably back to torch no hope for a while.  We have so much working against us in Feb.  The MJO is heading towards hostile territory.  And while the good phases have not helped us much recently...the warm phases always seem to kill us.  Its a negative correlation only.  Nina feb climo in a +QBO is pretty god awful.  I know some are referencing the dying nina but if you look at years with a fading weak nina heading towards neutral in Feb the climo isn't any better. 

Almost everytime we have a nina that might fade I see this "its fading by late winter" being tossed around but frankly there is absolutely no data or objective evidence suggesting a fading nina to neutral during winter is good.  The Feb/Mar analogs are actually WORSE.  Sometimes they turn around in March, almost never in Feb, but actually slightly MORE nina's that were strong all winter had a March turn around than the weakening ones.  That is because some of the nina tropical forcing that is awful during early and mid winter actually becomes somewhat favorable in March.   

Here are the Feb analogs to a weakening Nina heading to neutral enso over the last 30 years.

March is a wild card.  Is the PV takes a hit it does increase chances for blocking and in March blocking still seems to be impactful.  It seems early in the season to even mid season blocking just doesn't have much impact anymore, at least not enough to bully other factors anymore...but Feb and Mar it still can.  So if we can get blocking in March maybe we salvage a period of opportunity.  Similar to 2018.  

[DE2PA]

13 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…


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This ^^

[DE2PA]

Although snow storms now a days really fuck up my work day. I don’t care I still love it.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…
 

It helps me that April has spring break to plan, and I love spring skiing season in New England so often I am occupied planning multiple weekend trips up to Sugarbush or Sugarloaf to get some last turns in.  April skiing up there can be awesome.  

[DE2PA]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It helps me that April has spring break to plan, and I love spring skiing season in New England so often I am occupied planning multiple weekend trips up to Sugarbush or Sugarloaf to get some last turns in.  April skiing up there can be awesome.  

Sugarloaf Maine? I’ll be there next month.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Sugarloaf Maine? I’ll be there next month.

Yea, by far my favorite east coast mountain.  But I prefer it late season.  Mid winter it can be icy and cold as hell and it rarely gets as much snow as Vermont.  But it holds snow pack in spring amazing and so April and even May it is awesome.  

[Interstate]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It helps me that April has spring break to plan, and I love spring skiing season in New England so often I am occupied planning multiple weekend trips up to Sugarbush or Sugarloaf to get some last turns in.  April skiing up there can be awesome.  

If they have snow. 

[dallen7908]

I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec.  Here are the latest for Sugarloaf

 

Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️  ~01/20/23 07:11 am

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

If they have snow. 

Yea we will see... but a few times they went into mid winter with almost nothing like this and always recover at some point.  They hold snow pack up there really well...it just doesn't warm up even in a torch pattern once you get into NW Maine.  Even super cutters end up mixed events up there that don't really kill the pack much.  So they just need a 2-3 week period somewhere in winter where they get dumped with like 50" of snow...then they make snow and Spring skiing will be ok.  My guess is they get enough snow the next month that it ends up OK.  Actually...if we get a lot of snow here that's bad for them...they've had almost nothing...if the boundary ends up down here and they are dry now...then it warms up after...that would be a total disaster for them.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

39 minutes ago, Heisy said:

I remember literally falling into a depression in high school from the March 2001 bust. That doesn’t happen anymore. I still get a little seasonal depression in April, but I think that’s just because my routine of checking models 20x a day ends. I think a part of me loves this hobby because when a big event happens it takes us away from the worries of real life for a few days. As a kid I loved the hype and how every thing got shut down from a snowstorm. Still do I’ll I guess. If it doesn’t snow this year it will suck, I’ll be a little angry, but that’s about it…


.

Are we sharing the same emotions/mind bro? Couldn't have said it any better!

[clskinsfan]

Long term MJO forecast showing some possibilities of making it to 8/1. Seems it would time well with the expected beatdown of the PV. Maybe we can score in the mid February/early March timeframe. I am so sick of kicking the can at this point. 

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Long term MJO forecast showing some possibilities of making it to 8/1. Seems it would time well with the expected beatdown of the PV. Maybe we can score in the mid February/early March timeframe. I am so sick of kicking the can at this point. 

a beatdown is a pretty tame way to put it. I can't really remember the last time I've seen a disruption like this from extended ensembles. the SPV is gone here

obviously this stuff is very mercurial, but it's worth keeping an eye on for late winter shenanigans. in the meantime, we can focus on stuff through the first week of February

[dallen7908]

9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Long term MJO forecast showing some possibilities of making it to 8/1. Seems it would time well with the expected beatdown of the PV. Maybe we can score in the mid February/early March timeframe. I am so sick of kicking the can at this point. 

That's encouraging (I think).  Hopefully, it doesn't get waylaid during its torturous journey through 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 before reaching the promised land post-Valentine's day

 

[Maestrobjwa]

48 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec.  Here are the latest for Sugarloaf

 

Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️  ~01/20/23 07:11 am

"Be safe, think snow!" Haha Love it!

[Chris78]

You would think this set up would yield some front end snow but nope.

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You would think this set up would yield some front end snow but nope.

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is trending towards more confluence, which helps for a thump scenario

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

You would think this set up would yield some front end snow but nope.

Crappy airmass in front and a HP off the coast is a little tough. Would need more resistance up top.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is trending towards more confluence, which helps for a thump scenario

yea cause this wave spacing

With this confluence/flow over the top

Just isn't good enough on January 25th.  

None of that is the problem.  This is like blaming a loss on the receiver who had 9 catches for 145 yards and 2 TDs by saying...well we just needed him to have 12 catches for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns.  

Maybe the problem is just simple....  on January 25 with a damn perfect setup for an WAA front end thump...the boundary even right behind the last wave never makes it south of the Mason Dixon line...here it is before the southerly flow even begins from the next wave.  It's game over before it even starts. 

Its just too warm.  

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Crappy airmass in front and a HP off the coast is a little tough. Would need more resistance up top.

There isn't really a true high off the coast...the real high is up over Quebec and banana over the top exactly like we want it.  The high to the east is really just an artifact of there having to be higher pressure to the east of the approaching wave.  That's always going to be the case...but its not the problem.  Your first point...there just isn't any cold in front of this wave...is the whole problem.  We can pick apart these different levels and progs all we want but I could throw up a dozen examples where at H5 and H7 you could see an exact same synoptic setup and it was a 3-6" snowstorm in Baltimore, the difference was IT WAS COLDER lol.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

We all know what needs to happen. 

[mattie g]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

We all know what needs to happen. 

Delete psu's posts from this thread?

[Interstate]

Just now, mattie g said:

Delete psu's posts from this thread?

Delete the Server

[Paleocene]

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

 

 

hey, I still think this is the main window. TPV drops down and some SS vort leads to an overrunning event

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

 

 

I'm actually curious about the pattern starting next weekend...can we get a 7-10 days of decent cold? Still looks split-flowy to end the month and the start of February...

[Ravens94]

Snowing decent up Oakland sun angle is working on roads 

29

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

 

 

This will bring my seasonal digital snow to average 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Forget next week and come live in digital blue fantasyland with me! Where it always snows!

 

 

You can't trust any specific details at that range but that is the window, AFTER the 26th Wave IF we can get a wave to ride the boundary before the pac jet retracts too much and the SE ridge pumps to kingdom come.  The question is how long is that window, where does the boundary set up, and do we have an active STJ at the right time.  But its the first time in a long time I think there is even a chance for us.