January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Ji]

  On 1/20/2023 at 4:37 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang I forgot all about that, lol What show was that again?

Good times?

[yoda]

Hmmm... hello there 00z UKIE for middle of next week... things getting interesting tonight in a hurry lol

[TSSN+]

Uk similar to cmc. Gives snow down into dc 

[yoda]

  On 1/20/2023 at 4:49 AM, TSSN+ said:

Uk similar to cmc. Gives snow down into dc 

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Down to EZF actually

[TSSN+]

  On 1/20/2023 at 4:50 AM, yoda said:

Down to EZF actually

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Ya was just giving a general idea it shows something. Though idk how much is to be said about it cause euro/uk/cmc had few inches for this weekend at one point too, so who knows. 

[yoda]

So tonights 00z ICON/CMC/UKIE get snow into DC metro middle of next week with maybe an inch or two... more N and W... GFS says no...

[TSSN+]

  On 1/20/2023 at 4:54 AM, yoda said:

So tonights 00z ICON/CMC/UKIE get snow into DC metro middle of next week with maybe an inch or two... more N and W... GFS says no...

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GFS is the new Dr. no 

[AtlanticWx]

let's see what euro says, EPS made good steps

[Ji]

Gfs ran?

[Scraff]

  On 1/20/2023 at 4:56 AM, TSSN+ said:

GFS is the new Dr. no 

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Not new Dr No. Just straight up old Dr No! F Merica and our stupid way of figuring our weather.  

[Maestrobjwa]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:01 AM, Ji said:

Gfs ran?

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Yeah it did...just not on TT, lol

[Chris78]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:01 AM, Ji said:

Gfs ran?

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Servers unplugged. Reboot. Need it back to the upgrade from a couple years ago when it was giving me snow in May lol

[Chris78]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:05 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah it did...just not on TT, lol

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It shit the blinds on TT 

[TSSN+]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:06 AM, Chris78 said:

It shit the blinds on TT 

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I like shitting the blinds 

[brooklynwx99]

CMC ENS agree with the stronger confluence 

[AtlanticWx]

Way colder 850s this run

[DE2PA]

Euro is going to cut hard north after tracking damn near due east across the gulf of mexico.

I do not understand.

[TSSN+]

998 in TN with snow moving in to the area. Oh ok. 

[TSSN+]

It’s best to just not even pay the models no mind till Sunday on this one. 

[jayyy]

  On 1/20/2023 at 5:26 AM, AtlanticWx said:

Way colder 850s this run

Step in the right direction verbatim. However I’m inclined not to pay too much mind to the details of wave #2 (26th) on models until the Sunday wave moves through and we get a better idea as to how it’ll impact wave 2. Wave 1 track / intensity, the spacing between waves and how far south wave 1 drags the boundary will greatly impact the outcome of wave 2. Best we allow models to get a grasp on wave 1. That’ll also put us in the 3-4 day window, which is the ideal time to start nailing down details.


.

[jayyy]

  On 1/20/2023 at 6:32 AM, TSSN+ said:

It’s best to just not even pay the models no mind till Sunday on this one. 

Agreed. Inclined to wait for wave 1 to move through entirely before getting too excited or bummed about wave 2’s prospects. Wave 1 is going to have an impact on our second wave around the 26th. We don’t know what type of impact quite yet.


.

[jayyy]

00z icon likes the threat on the 26th but we’re still 6 days out with a storm coming through Sunday. Lots of time for things to change. Certainly like seeing that HP up in Canada, which doesn’t budge, and snowpack to our NW from wave 1 helps keep cold air entrenched. Too bad we’re still 6 days out

Oy… this is going to be a tense next 6-7 days of tracking.

[dailylurker]

I've never seen it so dead in here in January. No Cape update either? 

[WxUSAF]

Is NCEP having issues? GFS/GEFS seems stuck on TT at least.

[North Balti Zen]

maybe this is the day they unplugged the GFS and then plugged it back in...

[anotherman]

This is probably the GFS version of a Windows Vista update.  Everything will be running smoothly soon.  Uh, yeah.

[psuhoffman]

  On 1/20/2023 at 12:00 PM, dailylurker said:

I've never seen it so dead in here in January. No Cape update either? 

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No idea why, the pattern change is only 40 days away. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/20/2023 at 12:21 PM, psuhoffman said:

No idea why, the pattern change is only 40 days away. 

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SPV is toast starting  within 10 days so March should rock.

Honestly, and this is for everyone, if we got a widespread 10"+ MECS in early/mid March and that was it the entire winter, would you not enjoy it at all for whatever reason or would you treat it like a jackpot reward where patience finally paid off?? Be honest.

Me? I would savor the fuck out of it and Jebwalk the entire event...snow spotlight, pictures, video....etc.

[CAPE]

GFS technical difficulties. Or in hibernation. Latest run is 18z on WB.

[Ji]

  On 1/20/2023 at 12:43 PM, CAPE said:

GFS technical difficulties. Or in hibernation. Latest run is 18z on WB.

It's working on pivotal I think and super snowy from 240 to 384