January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Volcanic Winter]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

To be fair anyone in the profession knows what they’re looking at and would never use those TT snow maps. 

How do meteorologists do it? Best guess is looking at QPF and temps at different levels combined with educated guesses at likely ratios? Seems like it gets complicated quickly by stuff like fronto / deformation bands, etc.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Pretty good look on the HH GFS

And then this..

The Roger Smith jawn

[pazzo83]

5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i think the tenor of this subforum will change when CC contributes to two 30"+ winters for BWI in like three years. the band has to snap the other way. wouldn't make sense if it didn't

at some point we are going to have to benefit from like 45-50F SSTs offshore.  Yes, it will probably take an absolute perfect set up but we will have storms that are juiced up.  Just have to have enough cold air once in a while (a tall order, I know).

[DE2PA]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The Roger Smith jawn

All hail Roger Smith

[cbmclean]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The Roger Smith jawn

Had to look up jawn.

[Ralph Wiggum]

24 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

How do meteorologists do it? Best guess is looking at QPF and temps at different levels combined with educated guesses at likely ratios? Seems like it gets complicated quickly by stuff like fronto / deformation bands, etc.

Mets don't put snow totals out for a system 13 days out sooooo that's step 1.

[Yeoman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

this belongs in some kind of thread right?

With the lottery number guesses

[Wonderdog]

Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS run verifies for the path of the Gulf lp in a few days. Just doesn’t seem right. A strange path for the lp when it reaches the east course.

[jayyy]

Will be interesting to see if the 18z GFS run verifies for the path of the Gulf lp in a few days. Just doesn’t seem right. A strange path for the lp when it reaches the east course.

It definitely seems odd. Looks like it’s headed up the coast in a favorable spot, and then it hangs left’ish. Odd.


.

[Terpeast]

18 minutes ago, jayyy said:

It definitely seems odd. Looks like it’s headed up the coast in a favorable spot, and then it hangs left’ish. Odd.


.

Think it’s just a modeling artifact. Wouldn’t read too much into it. When I see something like that I mentally “smooth” the track out, and to factor in the warm waters off NC/VA, adjust entire track west a good hundred miles. 

[Solution Man]

Icon brings the goods next Wed

[Scraff]

Drunk in some craft beer bar in S Norwalk, CT. How’s our fake winter projections. Been so deep in sales meetings the last 48 hours, got no idea what’s up. I’m guessing I have an inkling, but tell me there’s a chance!? Please!? I I literally just want one white gold opportunity at this point…

[WinterWxLuvr]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Think it’s just a modeling artifact. Wouldn’t read too much into it. When I see something like that I mentally “smooth” the track out, and to factor in the warm waters off NC/VA, adjust entire track west a good hundred miles. 

I’ve seen people reference the waters off Va/NC lately. The water temp at Va Beach is 45. One year ago the water temp was 44 on this date. The range of temps on this date from stats 1981-2005 is 44-58. 
 

Not sure why this winter would behave differently because of water temps.

[TSSN+]

Lol sure 

[brooklynwx99]

slight change here lmao

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

slight change here lmao

More confluence up top, 540 thru dca. Too bad it’s the ICON lol

[Buddy1987]

GFS taking it’s sweet time tonight… not like it can be trusted in any capacity so there’s that.. 

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

GFS taking it’s sweet time tonight… not like it can be trusted in any capacity so there’s that.. 

Maybe they finally pulled the plug 

[Buddy1987]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Maybe they finally pulled the plug 

What a day that would be haha! The GFS is the equivalent of a late 80s 4Runner that’s on its last leg. There’s no fixing it so they just keep performing oil changes in hopes it’ll last. 

[TSG]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ve seen people reference the waters off Va/NC lately. The water temp at Va Beach is 45. One year ago the water temp was 44 on this date. The range of temps on this date from stats 1981-2005 is 44-58. 
 

Not sure why this winter would behave differently because of water temps.

Definitely cold down there right now. Could be some upwelling caused by the low moving north, there's 30-40 mph winds off the NC/VA coast right now. You can see how much more red than blue there is across the North Atlantic though. Hard to look at that and think it won't have any effect.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, TSG said:

Definitely cold down there right now. Could be some upwelling caused by the low moving north, there's 30-40 mph winds off the NC/VA coast right now. You can see how much more red than blue there is across the North Atlantic though. Hard to look at that and think it won't have any effect.

Well now that may help us a little then. Still need the cold air though, which we don’t have. Yet. 

Also as a whole, the W atlantic is still warm, but not on absolute fire like it was before. 

[yoda]

End of the 00z ICON seemed full of intrigue at h5 too lol

 

 

[Volcanic Winter]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mets don't put snow totals out for a system 13 days out sooooo that's step 1.

Joking aside, I'm actually curious though. Of course I'm not talking about a fantasy storm on long range guidance.

[pazzo83]

17 minutes ago, TSG said:

Definitely cold down there right now. Could be some upwelling caused by the low moving north, there's 30-40 mph winds off the NC/VA coast right now. You can see how much more red than blue there is across the North Atlantic though. Hard to look at that and think it won't have any effect.

there's 20+C SSTs just off shore of OBX.

[TSSN+]

Cmc Is interesting for next week. The high keeps it cold enough for snow and ice.

 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Cmc Is interesting for next week. The high keeps it cold enough for snow and ice.

 

yup, stronger confluence

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yup, stronger confluence

Keep it going south 

[Ji]

This storm keeps coming back

[AtlanticWx]

imo we're starting to see not horrible trends. seems like precip breaks off from the low and works its way upwards so if a high trends stronger perhaps we sneak our way into measurable snow

[clskinsfan]

5 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z 2 weeks and 56 runs to go!!!!