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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Kevin Reilly

Kevin Reilly

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 10:41 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the SLP positions on the GEFS. most are offshore

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_18.thumb.png.68ba5b6f000039498b6aa74f10b987b3.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-4453600.thumb.png.d0cdea020002becc2ee88d7b1ef31fb8.png

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Noting the progressive nature of the flow with not much blocking and a somewhat flattened SER I would think this is further east like the last storm that developed to our east that looked like a tropical system but not that Far East 

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
stormtracker

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 9:21 PM, jayyy said:


2 of the 3 waves in question are within 7 days, but who’s counting? emoji23.png

I understand his skepticism though. My brother lives right by him and they’ve gotten shafted pretty hard over the past several years. Bomb cyclones missing to the east, a 50” winter 25-30 miles to their north in 2020… it’s been a rough stretch for those parts.

Their time will come, but it’s no surprise that people living in that area are extremely skeptical. OSU will also be the first one to act like a little school boy on their first snow day once something pans out lmao


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Just super skeptical. Obviously gotten shafted since the 2016 blizzard, but we are in a Nina, had the hype for December that failed, and then have had a number of looks at the 7-10 day range that just fail to materialize. If something legit gets to within 4-5 days, I'll start letting myself get a bit invested but it just seems like insanity buying into any of this when the same thing keeps happening over and over again. I've done it to myself too many times and have learned my lesson. And I don't want to turn into those posters who are on the verge of absolutely losing their marbles over snow. Doesn't mean I am not rooting for everyone to cash in. That would be great.

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Heisy

Heisy

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Posted
  On 1/18/2023 at 11:47 PM, CAPE said:
Yeah, that's how it works with progressive flow. Yet you constantly pop in here and post about 'good looks' with transient lows hauling ass through the 50-50 region lol.

There’s a big difference between how the pattern has been last 7 days/next few days and end of the month. That’s all I’ve been saying. There’s at least potential there towards end of month. We just need to time things almost perfectly. Just seems we need the absolute perfect H5 setup to get snow these days.


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Solution Man

Solution Man

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  On 1/19/2023 at 1:28 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

I listen to some that say they won't pay something any attention until we're within 3 days....but if you're a weenie I'm not sure how true that actually is. Now to 5 days? Sure--totally doable. But ain't nobody gonna be able resist looking till three days...I don't believe it, lol

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Getting through tomorrow is the key

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

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Posted
  On 1/19/2023 at 1:30 AM, nj2va said:

Multiple upslope chances (hi @mattie g) for the MD / WV mountains coming up (in addition to potentially favorable storm tracks) - I know we all need snow but their economies depend on it with the local ski resorts. 

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Yes. They are sitting pretty right now for the next couple of weeks. Worst case I can take a drive 30 miles west and be in a couple feet of snow. :)

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2023 at 1:28 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

I listen to some that say they won't pay something any attention until we're within 3 days....but if you're a weenie I'm not sure how true that actually is. Now to 5 days? Sure--totally doable. But ain't nobody gonna be able resist looking till three days...I don't believe it, lol

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Why do you think they are spending time in the LR thread?  Its like a smoker saying they are going to quit smoking while smoking a cig.

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MDScienceTeacher

MDScienceTeacher

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Posted
  On 1/19/2023 at 1:55 AM, clskinsfan said:

Yes. They are sitting pretty right now for the next couple of weeks. Worst case I can take a drive 30 miles west and be in a couple feet of snow. :)

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I am usual the last person to be a debby downer.  But I wouldnt be so confident about mountains. Especially not in the Mid Atlantic region.  

Until We see a major shift in the storm track and overall temp profiles across the nation, I am going with this solution from the euro.

image.thumb.png.a0c6ef02de84328b51982ee25105acf4.png

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

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Posted
  On 1/19/2023 at 2:08 AM, MDScienceTeacher said:

I am usual the last person to be a debby downer.  But I wouldnt be so confident about mountains. Especially not in the Mid Atlantic region.  

Until We see a major shift in the storm track and overall temp profiles across the nation, I am going with this solution from the euro.

image.thumb.png.a0c6ef02de84328b51982ee25105acf4.png

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Why would you go with a run that is almost 24 hours old over a newer one?

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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  On 1/18/2023 at 11:34 PM, George001 said:

What’s wrong with getting excited about rainstorms? I just bought a rain gauge, and am looking forward to putting it to use on Monday for the inland runner the models have. Im looking forward to finding out exactly how much rain we get. If you allow yourself to get excited about a wider variety of weather this hobby becomes a lot more enjoyable. We can’t control the weather so what’s the point in letting it ruin your day? For me, I would rather embrace the weather we get, not only root for a specific type of weather and get pissed when we don’t get it. I get a lot more enjoyment out of this hobby now that I’m doing that.

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Yea ok and if the Giants beat the Eagles Saturday and some joker says “but it’s awesome if you just root for the Giants” they’re getting punched in the face. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 1/19/2023 at 2:02 AM, poolz1 said:

Why do you think they are spending time in the LR thread?  Its like a smoker saying they are going to quit smoking while smoking a cig.

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Lol I'm telling ya checking model runs feels akin to a cig (never smoked but it feels like a certain addictive quality is at play here)

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