January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[WinterWxLuvr]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Dude, I was about to say...

You quoted another post I had to edit 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Not having any blocking is just devastating right now. Hope cmc/GEPS is right so any shortwave around 29/30th is forced farther S.

Even here on the gfs for the LR storm, we have a 50/50 but there’s no blocking so the 50/50 keeps moving N




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Yeah, that's how it works with progressive flow. Yet you constantly pop in here and post about 'good looks' with transient lows hauling ass through the 50-50 region lol.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

FWIW the OP GFS is on the far W edge of the SLP positions on the GEFS. most are offshore

Noting the progressive nature of the flow with not much blocking and a somewhat flattened SER I would think this is further east like the last storm that developed to our east that looked like a tropical system but not that Far East 

[jayyy]

See you all at 0z for @stormtracker ’s PBP


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[stormtracker]

Just now, jayyy said:

See you all at 0z for @stormtracker ’s PBP


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Which we all know, is bar none, creme de la creme.  Folks, you can't get this kind of content anywhere else. 

[stormtracker]

FWIW, 18z Euro is about the same vs 12z wrt to the 1st wave. (Surface wise)

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, jayyy said:

2 of the 3 waves in question are within 7 days, but who’s counting?

I understand his skepticism though. My brother lives right by him and they’ve gotten shafted pretty hard over the past several years. Bomb cyclones missing to the east, a 50” winter 25-30 miles to their north in 2020… it’s been a rough stretch for those parts.

Their time will come, but it’s no surprise that people living in that area are extremely skeptical. OSU will also be the first one to act like a little school boy on their first snow day once something pans out lmao


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Just super skeptical. Obviously gotten shafted since the 2016 blizzard, but we are in a Nina, had the hype for December that failed, and then have had a number of looks at the 7-10 day range that just fail to materialize. If something legit gets to within 4-5 days, I'll start letting myself get a bit invested but it just seems like insanity buying into any of this when the same thing keeps happening over and over again. I've done it to myself too many times and have learned my lesson. And I don't want to turn into those posters who are on the verge of absolutely losing their marbles over snow. Doesn't mean I am not rooting for everyone to cash in. That would be great.

[DE2PA]

16 minutes ago, jayyy said:

See you all at 0z for @stormtracker ’s PBP


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LFG!

[TSSN+]

GFS server found and taken care of. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Shared in the NY subforum...hmm 

[Heisy]

Yeah, that's how it works with progressive flow. Yet you constantly pop in here and post about 'good looks' with transient lows hauling ass through the 50-50 region lol.

There’s a big difference between how the pattern has been last 7 days/next few days and end of the month. That’s all I’ve been saying. There’s at least potential there towards end of month. We just need to time things almost perfectly. Just seems we need the absolute perfect H5 setup to get snow these days.


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[WinterWxLuvr]

Can someone post the 18z euro maps for Sunday? Thanks

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Can someone post the 18z euro maps for Sunday? Thanks

Only goes to 90.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Only goes to 90.

 

Thanks I forgot about that. When does the eps come out?

[Heisy]

18z eps has better confluence/NS out ahead of main shortwave at end of run



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[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z eps has better confluence/NS out ahead of main shortwave at end of run



.

That does look like it would make a difference for next Wednesday 

[psuhoffman]

both Gfs and euro have a very sharp cutoff between significant snow and nada with waves taking very similar tracks along the boundary. Again very 1994 ish just without the crazy ice on the warm side of the boundary because we don’t have an arctic airmass in place. 

[Maestrobjwa]

I listen to some that say they won't pay something any attention until we're within 3 days....but if you're a weenie I'm not sure how true that actually is. Now to 5 days? Sure--totally doable. But ain't nobody gonna be able resist looking till three days...I don't believe it, lol

[nj2va]

Multiple upslope chances (hi @mattie g) for the MD / WV mountains coming up (in addition to potentially favorable storm tracks) - I know we all need snow but their economies depend on it with the local ski resorts. 

[Solution Man]

25 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I listen to some that say they won't pay something any attention until we're within 3 days....but if you're a weenie I'm not sure how true that actually is. Now to 5 days? Sure--totally doable. But ain't nobody gonna be able resist looking till three days...I don't believe it, lol

Getting through tomorrow is the key

[clskinsfan]

23 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Multiple upslope chances (hi @mattie g) for the MD / WV mountains coming up (in addition to potentially favorable storm tracks) - I know we all need snow but their economies depend on it with the local ski resorts. 

Yes. They are sitting pretty right now for the next couple of weeks. Worst case I can take a drive 30 miles west and be in a couple feet of snow.

[poolz1]

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I listen to some that say they won't pay something any attention until we're within 3 days....but if you're a weenie I'm not sure how true that actually is. Now to 5 days? Sure--totally doable. But ain't nobody gonna be able resist looking till three days...I don't believe it, lol

Why do you think they are spending time in the LR thread?  Its like a smoker saying they are going to quit smoking while smoking a cig.

[clskinsfan]

47 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Only goes to 90.

 

That looks way better than the GFS as far as temps go.

[MDScienceTeacher]

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yes. They are sitting pretty right now for the next couple of weeks. Worst case I can take a drive 30 miles west and be in a couple feet of snow.

I am usual the last person to be a debby downer.  But I wouldnt be so confident about mountains. Especially not in the Mid Atlantic region.  

Until We see a major shift in the storm track and overall temp profiles across the nation, I am going with this solution from the euro.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I am usual the last person to be a debby downer.  But I wouldnt be so confident about mountains. Especially not in the Mid Atlantic region.  

Until We see a major shift in the storm track and overall temp profiles across the nation, I am going with this solution from the euro.

Why would you go with a run that is almost 24 hours old over a newer one?

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

That looks way better than the GFS as far as temps go.

Pivotal goes out 240 on the hi res.. and the first storm keeps getting colder.

 

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

Why would you go with a run that is almost 24 hours old over a newer one?

Oh wow!  Thanks... For some reason my browser didnt give me the latest run.. yeah everything is looking a lot better!!!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

What’s wrong with getting excited about rainstorms? I just bought a rain gauge, and am looking forward to putting it to use on Monday for the inland runner the models have. Im looking forward to finding out exactly how much rain we get. If you allow yourself to get excited about a wider variety of weather this hobby becomes a lot more enjoyable. We can’t control the weather so what’s the point in letting it ruin your day? For me, I would rather embrace the weather we get, not only root for a specific type of weather and get pissed when we don’t get it. I get a lot more enjoyment out of this hobby now that I’m doing that.

Yea ok and if the Giants beat the Eagles Saturday and some joker says “but it’s awesome if you just root for the Giants” they’re getting punched in the face. 

[AtlanticWx]

18z eps w/ some pretty major improvements for the storm on the 26th. less amped S/W & lower heights of the EC (555 line was in PA last run now it's south of DC)

[snowfan]

GFS looking good