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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?


psuhoffman
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GFS bringing the goods to the western burbs a week from Sunday as well. Would be nice to score three events in a week. Would save this debacle of a winter for me. 
When did you move to west virginia? Same time snyder moved to london?
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2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Not having any blocking is just devastating right now. Hope cmc/GEPS is right so any shortwave around 29/30th is forced farther S.

Even here on the gfs for the LR storm, we have a 50/50 but there’s no blocking so the 50/50 keeps moving N

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Not really, it’s still a really impressive storm even if it’s rain. 

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Just now, Heisy said:


I mean if you get off on rainstorms, then, I guess?


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What’s wrong with getting excited about rainstorms? I just bought a rain gauge, and am looking forward to putting it to use on Monday for the inland runner the models have. Im looking forward to finding out exactly how much rain we get. If you allow yourself to get excited about a wider variety of weather this hobby becomes a lot more enjoyable. We can’t control the weather so what’s the point in letting it ruin your day? For me, I would rather embrace the weather we get, not only root for a specific type of weather and get pissed when we don’t get it. I get a lot more enjoyment out of this hobby now that I’m doing that.

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The GFS has been Good For Shit this winter. NAM and ICON had a setup closer to the Euro / Ukmet for wave 1. Let me see that 00z Euro & Ukie tonight. If they look like the GFS, I’ll lower my already small expectation for wave 1. If the euro looks good, we live to fight another day on the initial wave

One thing we know for sure is that the evolution of wave 2 will be pretty dependent on how wave 1 unfolds. Not interested whatsoever in the current surface depictions of wave 2 at this juncture. Models haven’t yet honed in on what wave 1 will do. Zero shot I give any credence to what they show for wave 2.

Euro / Ukie are really the only major OP models with any semblance of credibility that are in their prime range for wave 1. And while the NAM at 84 and beyond is WAY outside of its wheelhouse, it may be catching on to the first 48-60 hours most accurately, which arguably looked best of any model for our area at 500mb. I’m curious to see how it looks at 00z tonight. If it shows a similar first 60 or so hours, perhaps it’s onto something.

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