January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone got the latest model money lines?

The same odds as the Dallas Kicker missing 4 extra points. 

[DarkSharkWX]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

That’s nice. It was showing ridiculous numbers in December too. That worked out. 

to be fair the december pattern that verified was different than what guidance was showing when that time period was in the long range, hopefully guidance holds on the looks we are seeing at 500h for the next 48h and if so confidence should be medium-high

 

also being in peak climo doesn't hurt much 

 

[Ji]

if EPS is right--its lights out

[GATECH]

6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Because how December turned out has any bearing on how late January will turn out? Not saying it will come to fruition, but December is irrelevant as to whether or not it does. If that were the case we’d exclusively see either see wall to wall snowfest winters or 0” winters. Both of which rarely occur historically.

Um, ever hear of atmospheric memory.  Sure, The we are do index is high, but so is the we are F’d index.

[jayyy]

where is the 3rd wave again?

It would probably do your weather driven mood swings some good to keep your focuses on 1 wave at a time Ji. Excited to depressed to posting 384hr digital blue for comfort


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[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

if EPS is right--its lights out

Come on man lol. Does this look like lights out?

[jayyy]

Um, ever hear of atmospheric memory.  Sure, The we are do index is high, but so is the we are F’d index.

Yeah, I’ve heard of “atmospheric memory”, but when the setups are entirely different at 500mb, there’s no “memory” to tap from. I’ve experienced 60 and rain to 25-30F and snow within days of each other numerous times in my life. Ive seen rain in January and snow in April. If atmospheric memory is legit, how did that happen? Did the atmosphere develop temporary amnesia?

If atmospheric memory was legit, we’d see one weather type or pattern all season long. It’s pretty much nonsense, as any reasonable analysis of our weather over the years would tell you. How many times have you seen drastic weather changes within days of each other living in this area? How can you possibly say atmospheric memory is a thing.

[jayyy]

Come on man lol. Does this look like lights out?

He’s somehow extrapolating surface temps from 500mb charts, which is as noob of a move as it gets.


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[stormtracker]

Well, time for the GFS and my shitty analysis.  I'm sorry yall

[GATECH]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Yeah, I’ve heard of “atmospheric memory”, but when the setups are entirely different at 500mb, there’s no “memory” to tap from. I’ve experienced 60 and rain to 25-30F and snow within days of each other numerous times in my life. Ive seen rain in January and snow in April. If atmospheric memory is legit, how did that happen? Did the atmosphere develop temporary amnesia?

If atmospheric memory was legit, we’d see one weather type or pattern all season long. It’s pretty much nonsense, as any reasonable analysis of our weather over the years would tell you.


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So far so good, I haven’t seen any snow, obviously the atmosphere is remembering to not give us snow….I am being sarcastic, btw.  

[jayyy]

to be fair the december pattern that verified was different than what guidance was showing when that time period was in the long range, hopefully guidance holds on the looks we are seeing at 500h for the next 48h and if so confidence should be medium-high
 
also being in peak climo doesn't hurt much 
 

Bingo. Mid to late December isn’t the dead of winter or prime climo season. February is our snowiest month, incase anyone forgot.


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[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Come on man lol. Does this look like lights out?

It's Ji, dude.  If it's not a 998 low off the VA capes and temps at 20 degress on a 15 day ensemble, then it's shit. 

[jayyy]

So far so good, I haven’t seen any snow, obviously the atmosphere is remembering to not give us snow….I am being sarcastic, btw.  

Christmas 2015 - 80 degrees
January 2016 - 4 feet of snow!

We need some more amnesia in these parts!


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[Ji]

Come on man lol. Does this look like lights out?

Lol it's the beginning of the end. Its a developing se ridge

[jayyy]

It's Ji, dude.  If it's not a 998 low off the VA capes and temps at 20 degress on a 15 day ensemble, then it's shit. 

Or a 384 OP GFS run


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[jayyy]

Lol it's the beginning of the end. Its a developing se ridge

The mere existence of a SER isn’t a game ender. If it’s squashed, we can still fair okay. Ya deb.


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[Ji]

The mere existence of a SER isn’t a game ender. If it’s squashed, we can still fair okay. Ya deb.


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Yes I'm sure it will be squared with that positive neutral nao

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Come on man lol. Does this look like lights out?

Yes

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah I remember those ice storms. Iciest winter I've ever seen. And that January storm it was raining/sleeting at 19 degrees. 

I obviously don't think it will be nearly that cold but the similarities could mean the boundary between warm/cold could set up in a similar area...just not as cold on the cold side.  But if you adjust that pattern from 1994 50 miles one way or the other it can be great or completely awful.  Not far south of DC had nothing but cold rain most of that winter while not far north had one of their snowiest winters ever.  

[stormtracker]

GFS looks like it. might be slightly worse. Its warmer leading in.

[stormtracker]

On to the next threat

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes

I’m not sure the lights came on.  Someone check the bulb

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

On to the next threat

Jeez I hardly got down one drink.  Can you give us the bad news in a good way next time? 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Ji said:

if EPS is right--its lights out

A week ago there was a battle between the GEFS and EPS for this week...the EPS had a great look and the GEFS was mediocre...GEFS won!  Guess who is more likely to win this time?  lol 

[stormtracker]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Jeez I hardly got down one drink.  Can you give us the bad news in a good way next time? 

Ok, I'll do my best.  I think it was slightly better than the dreaded "NEXT"

[windycutter]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS looks like it. might be slightly worse. Its warmer leading in.

Yep, mud fest.

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Come on man lol. Does this look like lights out?

Yes because if you are only on the edge of the boundary on a mean...anytime a wave comes along the boundary will be north of you.  Like I said in my post earlier today...any wave will have a southerly flow ahead of it and try to lift the boundary.  Our precipitation events often come at the warmest furthest north point for the boundary in a given pattern.  We need the cold anomalies to be well south of us for our area to end up on the cold side during a precipitation event.  

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, jayyy said:

He’s somehow extrapolating surface temps from 500mb charts, which is as noob of a move as it gets.


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But he is somewhat right.  That is a day 15 mean though...there is a spread and probably some members that aren't bad.  But if the H5 anomalies actually end up centered where that mean has them...we are not getting any snow in that pattern.  Any wave of any amplitude would track to our NW.  The best we could hope for is some ice maybe from trapped low level cold.  That is an awful look for a snowstorm.  

[Ji]

A week ago there was a battle between the GEFS and EPS for this week...the EPS had a great look and the GEFS was mediocre...GEFS won!  Guess who is more likely to win this time?  lol 

I'll take the non wintriest model solution for 200 Alex

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS looks like it. might be slightly worse. Its warmer leading in.

At least we get heavy rain with temps in the mid 40s instead of 33 degree drizzle.