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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
stormtracker

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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osfan24

osfan24

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

complaining 24/7 is only gonna make u more sad

I'm far past that. I reached acceptance when December failed miserably. I'm here because I like seeing what PSU concludes could be going on with our struggles and sadly get some amusement at everyone getting their hopes of every time something shows up at the 10-day mark only for it to vanish as it gets closer in time. It's like clockwork.

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AtlanticWx

AtlanticWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm far past that. I reached acceptance when December failed miserably. I'm here because I like seeing what PSU concludes could be going on with our struggles and sadly get some amusement at everyone getting their hopes of every time something shows up at the 10-day mark only for it to vanish as it gets closer in time. It's like clockwork.

yes because january 25th is definitely 10 days away! 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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Posted
1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Op euro verbatim has a brutal gradient. 10" in leesburg and less than 1" in DC proper. I hope for this forum's sake that doesn't happen.

I did compare this pattern to late January into early Feb 1994 yesterday.  Wasn't there sort of a similar gradient through our area then?   I was in western Fairfax County that year just south of Herndon and it was awful.  We kept getting pure ice storms while 10 miles NW of us would get a few inches of snow...and another 10 miles NW of there was getting even more.  I visited my cousin in WV about an hour NW of me several times that winter and they had like 10" of hard packed snow/ice cover each time while my lawn was bare.  It was torture.  

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
Just now, psuhoffman said:

I did compare this pattern to late January into early Feb 1994 yesterday.  Wasn't there sort of a similar gradient through our area then?   I was in western Fairfax County that year just south of Herndon and it was awful.  We kept getting pure ice storms while 10 miles NW of us would get a few inches of snow...and another 10 miles NW of there was getting even more.  I visited my cousin in WV about an hour NW of me several times that winter and they had like 10" of hard packed snow/ice cover each time while my lawn was bare.  It was torture.  

Yeah I remember those ice storms. Iciest winter I've ever seen. And that January storm it was raining/sleeting at 19 degrees. 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
tbh this is def just ensembles going crazy for one run


00z tonight (euro, ukie, and to a small extend the GFS - mainly as a means of comparison) will be pretty telling as far as where things are possibly headed for wave 1.

I’m typically blending the Euro and UKMET at this range, analyzing the 500mb setup and the storm’s general evolution. Less worried about verbatim temp profiles and snow output on individual OP runs or ensemble means. The 500mb/h5 evolution will tell us everything we need to know about how this 1st wave will turn out from a snow perspective. If it’s a continued improvement and move toward a coastal solution due to delayed NS interaction, we’re still in the game. Especially in NW areas. If it bounces back toward phasing the NS early, then meh.

The air mass is just SO marginal leading in that we really cannot afford any phasing to occur to our west. The only way this works out to be a legit snowstorm for most of the subforum is if it phases south of our area - a needle that’s going to be hard to thread. If there’s no phase at all, a dominant southern stream driven feature could yield a good track, but it’s likely primarily rain for anyone within 40 miles of 95 due to a lack of cold air to tap in to. This is why having snowpack to our N/NW is so crucial. Lack thereof makes marginal that much harder.

The trend over the past 60-72 hours has been undeniable, but sometimes we get a move back the other way as we approach D5 (medium range) as models tighten the envelop. The wide array of outcomes among individual members means this thing is nowhere near locked in. That isn’t necessarily a good or bad thing at this juncture, but it’s why I’m not getting overly excited at the Euro printing a foot plus between now and the 26th IMBY. There’s still a ton of unknowns.

Same goes for ensembles when it comes to looking at the overall pattern from the 23rd on. Day 5 has been where the various desired pattern changes we’ve been hunting have started to unravel - mainly because they’ve underestimated the SER. If the GEFS GEPS and EPS hold strong with their positive trends over the next 48 hours, I’ll start to get legitimately excited for the 7-10 day window starting around 1/23. We could REALLY use a -NAO to keep things locked in and to throw a wrench in the progressive regime that keeps ruining our setups. Would go a long way towards giving us a legit coastal threat late next week into early Feb (the Canadian ensemble was right on queue showing a near perfect -NAO )
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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

The CMC ens has a legit west-based -NAO the end of the month into early Feb. It is a classic dipole look with a TPV stuck underneath and low h5 heights stretched towards 50-50. This significantly mitigates the unfavorable ridge-trough position upstream in the EPac, squashing the SE ridge. Is it correct? Hard to say, but given some of the forecasted strat warming (and weakening SPV), it could be. I am sure as hell rooting for the Canadians here lol.

1675317600-Jyz5usAdCVg.png

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, CAPE said:

The CMC ens has a legit -NAO the end of the month into early Feb. It is a classic dipole look with a TPV stuck underneath and low h5 heights stretched towards 50-50. This significantly mitigates the unfavorable ridge-trough position upstream in the EPac, squashing the SE ridge. Is it correct? Hard to say, but given some of the forecasted strat warming (and weakening SPV), it could be. I am sure as hell rooting for the Canadians here lol.

1675317600-Jyz5usAdCVg.png

which is more realistic to get....a west Based-NAO(that looks more east based anyway) or the SE ridge? Im going with the least wintry solutions here...you wont see affects of any PV disturbance till Mid to Late Feb. So no...no snow for you

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ji said:

which is more realistic to get....a west Based-NAO(that looks more east based anyway) or the SE ridge? Im going with the least wintry solutions here...you wont see affects of any PV disturbance till Mid to Late Feb. So no...no snow for you

If it doesn't snow here I'm coming to visit you. Light workload the next 2 weeks.

eta- we don't need a SSW event, and that's not what is being forecasted, beyond the typical hype. There isn't any hard and fast rules about there being some specified amount of delay. Even Cohen doesn't really know.`B)

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DE2PA

DE2PA

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

18Z NAM is lining us up for Sunday/Monday. Much colder up top than the GFS. And the vort is in a much better position. Hate to play the extrap game. But I am a snow starved weenie. And it would most likely be a plastering for the western burbs at least. 

500hv.conus.png

NAM is elite 

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I did compare this pattern to late January into early Feb 1994 yesterday.  Wasn't there sort of a similar gradient through our area then?   I was in western Fairfax County that year just south of Herndon and it was awful.  We kept getting pure ice storms while 10 miles NW of us would get a few inches of snow...and another 10 miles NW of there was getting even more.  I visited my cousin in WV about an hour NW of me several times that winter and they had like 10" of hard packed snow/ice cover each time while my lawn was bare.  It was torture.  

There was one that has to be late January/early February that was out this way. I lived in Sterling and it started as a mix of sleet and snow, but evaporative cooling kicked in and turned me to snow.. not far down the road in Fairfax it turned over and I think nothing in DC. There was a playoff game on that day.. I cannot remember exact when, but it had to have been 1999. 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
yes because january 25th is definitely 10 days away! 

2 of the 3 waves in question are within 7 days, but who’s counting?

I understand his skepticism though. My brother lives right by him and they’ve gotten shafted pretty hard over the past several years. Bomb cyclones missing to the east, a 50” winter 25-30 miles to their north in 2020… it’s been a rough stretch for those parts.

Their time will come, but it’s no surprise that people living in that area are extremely skeptical. OSU will also be the first one to act like a little school boy on their first snow day once something pans out lmao


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hobbes9

hobbes9

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone got the latest model money lines?

National Problem Gambling Helpline

 

1-800-522-4700

The National Council on Problem Gambling operates the National Problem Gambling Helpline Network. The network is a single national access point to local resources for those seeking help for a gambling problem. The network consists of 28 contact centers that provide resources and referrals for all 50 states, Canada, and the US Virgin Islands. Help is available 24/7 and is 100% confidential.

The National Problem Gambling Helpline Network also includes text and chat services. These features enable those who are gambling online or on their mobile phone to access help the same way they play. One call, text, or chat will get you to problem gambling help anywhere in the U.S. 24/7/365.

Help is also available via an online peer support forum at www.gamtalk.org.

 

:D

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
That’s nice. It was showing ridiculous numbers in December too. That worked out. 

Because how December turned out has any bearing on how late January will turn out? Not saying it will come to fruition, but December is irrelevant as to whether or not it does. If that were the case we’d exclusively see either see wall to wall snowfest winters or 0” winters. Both of which rarely occur historically.
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TSSN+

TSSN+

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, hobbes9 said:

National Problem Gambling Helpline

 

1-800-522-4700

The National Council on Problem Gambling operates the National Problem Gambling Helpline Network. The network is a single national access point to local resources for those seeking help for a gambling problem. The network consists of 28 contact centers that provide resources and referrals for all 50 states, Canada, and the US Virgin Islands. Help is available 24/7 and is 100% confidential.

The National Problem Gambling Helpline Network also includes text and chat services. These features enable those who are gambling online or on their mobile phone to access help the same way they play. One call, text, or chat will get you to problem gambling help anywhere in the U.S. 24/7/365.

Help is also available via an online peer support forum at www.gamtalk.org.

 

:D

What’s the National weather addiction hotline number? 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
18Z NAM is lining us up for Sunday/Monday. Much colder up top than the GFS. And the vort is in a much better position. Hate to play the extrap game. But I am a snow starved weenie. And it would most likely be a plastering for the western burbs at least. 
500hv.conus.png

Desperate times call for extrapolation.


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