January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

@174 Euro has the NW burbs looking pretty good, 0 line bisects, who else, DC.

Sorry, 0c 850 or 0c as in 32 degree line?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Sorry, 0c 850 or 0c as in 32 degree line?

850, 32 is like over Germantown, N and west

[NorthArlington101]

just for fun:

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

As Ji mentioned earlier, it's so juicy. MSLP transfer wasn't that favorable but still an exciting run -- good thing we got 40 more to go

Just need another 25 miles southeast for the temp line and we are looking good. Lots of potential with this system based on the amount of precip alone. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

FWIW based on track alone, crazy uncle Ukie seems to be on a favorable camp for Sunday/Monday.

That's actually a really good sign. When utilized properly the ukie is a half decent piece of guidance provided you are aware of it's biases

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's actually a really good sign. When utilized properly the ukie is a half decent piece of guidance provided you are aware of it's biases

What are it's biases? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

What are it's biases? 

Don't follow its thermals. Used to hold back energy in sw like euro. General ideas are usefull ie if you are trying to see if a cutter idea vs coastal idea is valid. Ukie tends to overamp as well.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What are it's biases? 

similar to the ECMWF, but still the second best model based on skill scores, surprisingly. 2m temps are useless

it's generally a bit erratic

[Ralph Wiggum]

On to the NAVGEM...

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

similar to the ECMWF, but still the second best model based on skill scores, surprisingly. 2m temps are useless

it's generally a bit erratic

Cool, but doesn't the H5 map still show something that more resembles a cutter than a costal or am I misunderstanding something. 

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What are it's biases? 

Schizophrenia 

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Schizophrenia 

I thought that was the new GFS's feature

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cool, but doesn't the H5 map still show something that more resembles a cutter than a costal or am I misunderstanding something. 

this would normally cut, but the system over the Rockies keeps things progressive

[Heisy]

GEFS is a fucking thing of beauty for next week.  Best possible signal in every way from an ensemble at that range.  It's the GEFS so take it for whatever you think its worth but damn.  
See I was ninja'd by everyone lol 

It’s a little skewed by like two members that go insane

Still, NW where you are is in good spot regardless

Euro was able to hold on the cold better because a part of the NS broke ahead and phased with the prior event so we got a little transient 50/50.

If that trends stronger and flow trends faster could be a good event

Hell, 3” is a HECS at this point even up here in Philly


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[Terrapinwx]

Cool, but doesn't the H5 map still show something that more resembles a cutter than a costal or am I misunderstanding something. 

Pivotal is having issues with the ukie, so this is the best map I can show. No idea the thermals, but a track from Virginia Beach to cape cod would be a giant step in the right direction


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[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Pivotal is having issues with the ukie, so this is the best map I can show. No idea the thermals, but a track from Virginia Beach to cape cod would be a giant step in the right direction


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Thanks for a rough surface low map, I was just confused on how the H5 map with the upper low to our left could be a costal outcome for us. I guess a progressive pattern helps make that happen. 

[osfan24]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

It’s a little skewed by like two members that go insane

Still, NW where you are is in good spot regardless

Euro was able to hold on the cold better because a part of the NS broke ahead and phased with the prior event so we got a little transient 50/50.

If that trends stronger and flow trends faster could be a good event

Hell, 3” is a HECS at this point even up here in Philly


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Yeah, this looks like 2/3 is a complete swing and miss for almost all of us.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Pivotal is having issues with the ukie, so this is the best map I can show. No idea the thermals, but a track from Virginia Beach to cape cod would be a giant step in the right direction


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That’s either a very nice solution for us or one for @psuhoffmans notebook.

[Heisy]

Here’s the ukie for those wondering, sharing from Philly forum which is why our region is the focus, this is snow depth though. I’ll see if I can get a better image



.

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s either a very nice solution for us or one for @psuhoffmans notebook.

are we taking bets on which 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s either a very nice solution for us or one for @psuhoffmans notebook.

Looks like Ralph settled it... snow line sets up northwest of 95 even with that solution LOL 

And my book gets a little thicker.  

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Looks like Ralph settled it... snow line sets up northwest of 95 even with that solution LOL 

And my book gets a little thicker.  

I’ll just blame the Ukie’s generally poor thermals

[brooklynwx99]

UKMET has horrible thermals. wouldn't pay the snow output much mind

[jayyy]

It’s a little skewed by like two members that go insane

Still, NW where you are is in good spot regardless

Euro was able to hold on the cold better because a part of the NS broke ahead and phased with the prior event so we got a little transient 50/50.

If that trends stronger and flow trends faster could be a good event

Hell, 3” is a HECS at this point even up here in Philly


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P21 would be a shutter-upper.


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[AtlanticWx]

ensembles really ticked up today, 12z eps is really bullish

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

ensembles really ticked up today, 12z eps is really bullish

this looks pretty nice

[osfan24]

I know it is over a week away, but one inch on the ensemble is not exciting in the heart of winter.

[jayyy]

You might like this run for Sunday... shift in the right direction for most.

Very much so. Not typically one for clown maps, but it shows a foot plus for my area and points WNW - which I’ll round down to a solid 4-8” threat if I’m being responsibly conservative. The window is just opening, so there’s plenty of room to get places like Western HOCO, western MOCO and northern Baltimore county in on the action with continued improvements. I’d be lying if I said I see wave 1 trending to a mostly snow solution for the 95 metro corridor. It’d have to take a helluva track, and even then, we’re talking about a pretty shitty airmass preceding it - temps in the mid 40s all week - and not much cold air to draw in from the north with a lack of snowpack anywhere within a 200+ mile radius of here. If this exact storm evolution occurred with a potential wave 2 (after an initial wave dragged the boundary south and laid down snow cover to the NW) I could see the pathway for the immediate metros.

Certainly a long way away from a final solution, but you can’t fully discount the euro at D5.

My interest = on the rise. My skepticism remains fairly high, however. Especially with this first wave. There’s a lot of timing that needs to go right here. Amplify / phase too early and our levels get scorched by a strong southerly component. Amplify too late and it’s a strung out mess.

However… we’re due and all that, so maybe we can thread that needle as far as the NS and SS are concerned. Certainly seen crazier things happen.


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[jayyy]

I know it is over a week away, but one inch on the ensemble is not exciting in the heart of winter.

Ensemble mean* and the first threat is in the D5 window, Señor Deb.

Really hope you get some snow soon man. You need it.


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[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I know it is over a week away, but one inch on the ensemble is not exciting in the heart of winter.

that's climo for you guys in the medium range, though. anything over 1" is an actual signal for something 7 days away