January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Chris78]

Lots of agreement in the eps individual Members that the north and west crew gets some snow Sunday.

[poolz1]

12z EPS continues the trend of pushing the boundary further south and east for the 22nd storm and others after.  The look up top continues to look better as well.

Pretty impressive snapshot.

[Mikeymac5306]

It will be steaming through Cleveland by Friday's 12z... 

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lots of agreement in the eps individual Members that the north and west crew gets some snow Sunday.

I saw the EPS snow map elsewhere and it’s probably the best I’ve seen since December? 6-7” for Harrisburg ranging down to ~3” for DC.

[brooklynwx99]

nice Miller A signal on the EPS for next week

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I saw the EPS snow map elsewhere and it’s probably the best I’ve seen since December? 6-7” for Harrisburg ranging down to ~3” for DC.

 

[brooklynwx99]

can't ask for too much more here. sheeeeesh

HL ridge bridge - a legit -NAO/-AO/-EPO pattern with a strong jet stream off the EC

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

continued trends SE and immediate NW burgs should be on the right side of the gradient

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

12z EPS continues the trend of pushing the boundary further south and east for the 22nd storm and others after.  The look up top continues to look better as well.

Pretty impressive snapshot.

If it still looks like that in 48 hours I will start to get excited.  

[Cobalt]

3 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

I am well aware of March 1993. But other then a few rogue events winter is basically over for the most part. Plus you are fighting increasing daytime temperatures and sun angle by that point as well (yes I said it, sun angle).

In our most recent 30 year climo period at IAD, March was the snowiest month in a given winter season in 2018, 2017, 2014, 2013, 2009, 1999, 1994, and 1993. It's not incredibly uncommon for March to be relatively snowy for our general area, especially when compared to another month that is considered firmly in "winter" climo, December. If we're tracking in December, there's no reason not to track if things are favorable in March.

[Interstate]

13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If it still looks like that in 48 hours I will start to get excited.  

What... you are not staying up for the 0z Euro tonight?

[psuhoffman]

The guidance reminds me a little of January 1994.  Hopefully if a similar thing repeats we can get a 50 mile shift south compared to 94. DC and Baltimore were so close to a big run but we’re slightly on the wrong side of the boundary almost every storm in 94.  The gradient was extreme. 

[Chris78]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The guidance reminds me a little of January 1994.  Hopefully if a similar thing repeats we can get a 50 mile shift south compared to 94. DC and Baltimore were so close to a big run but we’re slightly on the wrong side of the boundary almost every storm in 94.  The gradient was extreme. 

That was the year of all the ice storms right?

I was ice skating on our yard as a teen back then.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

That was the year of all the ice storms right?

I was ice skating on our yard as a teen back then.

Yes but you didn’t have to go far north to see a significantly snowier winter. The Mason Dixon line got about 40-50”. Ya there was a lot of ice mix up here too but each storm dropped like 4-8” of snow before the ice up here and with the temps there was a deep snowcover all winter almost to April!  The ice/snow line kept setting up almost the exact same place all winter just NW of the metro areas. 

[Interstate]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance reminds me a little of January 1994.  Hopefully if a similar thing repeats we can get a 50 mile shift south compared to 94. DC and Baltimore were so close to a big run but we’re slightly on the wrong side of the boundary almost every storm in 94.  The gradient was extreme. 

94 was a sleet fest... They would forecast a snowstorm and every time we ended up with a glacier.

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but you didn’t have to go far north to see a significantly snowier winter. The Mason Dixon line got about 40-50”. Ya there was a lot of ice mix up here too but each storm dropped like 4-8” of snow before the ice up here and with the temps there was a deep snowcover all winter almost to April!  The ice/snow line kept setting up almost the exact same place all winter just NW of the metro areas. 

I grew up in Frederick county between Frederick and Thurmont. I Remember alot of those snow to ice events that were loaded with moisture. There was 1 strom that year that had hour and hours of sleet. We had several inches of sleet. I've never seen anything like that again. After one of the snows my neighbor came over and snowblowed the backyard to get down to the ice from the previous storm. It made a pretty cool hockey rink for a few weeks.

Some of the storms had temps in the teens with pouring sleet.

[toolsheds]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but you didn’t have to go far north to see a significantly snowier winter. The Mason Dixon line got about 40-50”. Ya there was a lot of ice mix up here too but each storm dropped like 4-8” of snow before the ice up here and with the temps there was a deep snowcover all winter almost to April!  The ice/snow line kept setting up almost the exact same place all winter just NW of the metro areas. 

I think I remember seeing -12 that Jan as I was under my parent's porch trying to thaw frozen pikes. 

[Ji]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yes but you didn’t have to go far north to see a significantly snowier winter. The Mason Dixon line got about 40-50”. Ya there was a lot of ice mix up here too but each storm dropped like 4-8” of snow before the ice up here and with the temps there was a deep snowcover all winter almost to April!  The ice/snow line kept setting up almost the exact same place all winter just NW of the metro areas. 

then man invented cars,airplanes and trains....and--sorry wrong thread

[anotherman]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance reminds me a little of January 1994.  Hopefully if a similar thing repeats we can get a 50 mile shift south compared to 94. DC and Baltimore were so close to a big run but we’re slightly on the wrong side of the boundary almost every storm in 94.  The gradient was extreme. 

Uh, '94 was amazing.  I was at PSU Altoona.  Obviously I was north of the gradient.  We can only hope.

[Jersey Andrew]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance reminds me a little of January 1994.  Hopefully if a similar thing repeats we can get a 50 mile shift south compared to 94. DC and Baltimore were so close to a big run but we’re slightly on the wrong side of the boundary almost every storm in 94.  The gradient was extreme. 

That was a very cold pattern. Two ice storms for DC area. Does this pattern resemble?

[Paleocene]

20 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I grew up in Frederick county between Frederick and Thurmont. I Remember alot of those snow to ice events that were loaded with moisture. There was 1 strom that year that had hour and hours of sleet. We had several inches of sleet. I've never seen anything like that again. After one of the snows my neighbor came over and snowblowed the backyard to get down to the ice from the previous storm. It made a pretty cool hockey rink for a few weeks.

Some of the storms had temps in the teens with pouring sleet.

I grew up in/around Harrisburg (don't worry, I've made it out and I don't go back). January 1994 was astonishing, I was a school-age kid and I remember an absolute glacier of ice on top of snow. The ice was strong enough to support my 8 year old weight and it must have had a foot of snow under it. We went sledding at a golf course and my brother got yeeted off his sled and scraped a bunch of skin off his face. That period through Jan '96 cemented my love of snow, which got me through the drought of '97-'99.  Even up there in the great north of central PA, winters can suck. We need a reminiscence thread, sorry for the digression. 

[stormtracker]

57 minutes ago, Interstate said:

What... you are not staying up for the 0z Euro tonight?

That run is going to be good.   Hey, I'm on a heater now...with 1 good call.  Happy Hour GFS will put the happy back in happy hour..watch now...

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

That was a very cold pattern. Two ice storms for DC area. Does this pattern resemble?

There are some similarities between current guidance and 94 yes. That doesn’t mean it’s gonna be that cold. Highly doubt it. I mean in a general longwave pattern sense. Current progs have a little better NAO than 94 but a more broad less deep trough. Those probably are a net wash. 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some similarities between current guidance and 94 yes. That doesn’t mean it’s gonna be that cold. Highly doubt it. I mean in a general longwave pattern sense. Current progs have a little better NAO than 94 but a more broad less deep trough. Those probably are a net wash. 

Prep to worry about being fringed on the next Euro run.  We both know we've got a hit on our hands then.  You're welcome.

[stormtracker]

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.  

This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could put a football through it.   These are dangerous and heady times folks.   I am here for all of us and remember...

I will always love you.  Let's do this.

[mattie g]

35 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Uh, '94 was amazing.  I was at PSU Altoona.  Obviously I was north of the gradient.  We can only hope.

I was in central PA at Bucknell. Unreal winter followed by another absolute monster two years later.

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There are some similarities between current guidance and 94 yes. That doesn’t mean it’s gonna be that cold. Highly doubt it. I mean in a general longwave pattern sense. Current progs have a little better NAO than 94 but a more broad less deep trough. Those probably are a net wash. 

Your memory for details in regards to patterns from decades ago is astonishing lol.

[ravensrule]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 

I will always love you.  Let's do this.

That's not what you told me last night. 

[GATECH]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.  

This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could put a football through it.   These are dangerous and heady times folks.   I am here for all of us and remember...

I will always love you.  Let's do this.

You just jinxed it with the cowboy kicker reference.  The goal post could be as wide as the universe and he would miss it!  

[poolz1]

51 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I grew up in Frederick county between Frederick and Thurmont. I Remember alot of those snow to ice events that were loaded with moisture. There was 1 strom that year that had hour and hours of sleet. We had several inches of sleet. I've never seen anything like that again. After one of the snows my neighbor came over and snowblowed the backyard to get down to the ice from the previous storm. It made a pretty cool hockey rink for a few weeks.

Some of the storms had temps in the teens with pouring sleet.

I grew up in a similar spot...Walkersville.  Our driveway was about 100yds long and uphill. Remember   my sister's car sliding down the driveway, after a failed attempt to make it up. Slid off the driveway and stayed on top of the snow and into the woods.