January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[stormtracker]

Don’t make me come down there……

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No clue why we get so stuck on stuff in here...like, sheesh, lol

Snow is serious business.   

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Interstate said:

I dont know why everyone seems surprised that run over run of the models change dramatically.  I mean all it takes is a little change early that amplifies down the road on the run. 

That’s enlightening 

[WxUSAF]

As @Bob Chill mentioned, the trend seems to be our friend in the ensembles for the period starting next week. Less SE ridge, more PNA and NAO ridging.

 

[Ji]

16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

No clue why we get so stuck on stuff in here...like, sheesh! Maybe the snow weenie brain likes to argue or somethin', lol

its one of those unwritten no-no's....like copying and pasting NWS forecasts

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As @Bob Chill mentioned, the trend seems to be our friend in the ensembles for the period starting next week. Less SE ridge, more PNA and NAO ridging.

 

we really need the 25-27 storm to work out though...that seems to be super juicy

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

As @Bob Chill mentioned, the trend seems to be our friend in the ensembles for the period starting next week. Less SE ridge, more PNA and NAO ridging.

 

the NAO ridging is the kicker for NYC south, especially for you guys... if it trends stronger, it'll force the TPV into SE Canada and lead to a lot more confluence

higher chance of ending on the right side of the gradient. encouraging for sure

[stormtracker]

The Euro will save us 

[NorthArlington101]

EURO is going to push some light frozen into the area at 126 (Sunday). Pretty different from 00z

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

The Euro will save us 

It's kinda close and its "only" at Day 6. 

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's kinda close and its "only" at Day 6. 

So close, phases the blobs of energy this run unlike 0z, definitely time left on the table for a positive outcome. The H5 looks very close to something

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Euro will save us 

Front end slop Sunday

[Ji]

winter weather Sunday per Euro

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Front end slop Sunday

things look interesting for the next storm after that...well see

[mattie g]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Front end slop Sunday

#WWAS

[Ji]

digging NB ahead of the SB...50/50 low...lets see if anything comes of this

[mattie g]

12z Euro at 500 is night and day from 00z for the 24th timeframe. Energy dives down into Mexico and separates from the NS vort, and that vort getting out ahead establishes more confluence in the NE.

[Ji]

euro shows potential...lets wait to see what Ava says

[WxUSAF]

Weird evolution for the 25-26, but damn close to a MECS

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weird evolution for the 25-26, but damn close to a MECS

Gulf Low Miller A and we barely get precip. Another storm with not much precip to left of the low

[stormtracker]

28 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The Euro will save us 

Good call. 
 

For once. 

[WVclimo]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro shows potential...lets wait to see what Ava says

I’m out until Topper gets on board.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

I’m out until Topper gets on board.

we cant even get a car Topper

[mattie g]

10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weird evolution for the 25-26, but damn close to a MECS

That thing bombs the F out from 210-222 with energy rounding the trough phasing in.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That thing bombs the F out from 210-222 with energy rounding the trough phasing in.

Just need that to happen a day or so earlier, though there is minimal cold  to work with as depicted on the Euro.  

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just need that to happen a day or so earlier, though there is minimal cold  to work with as depicted on the Euro.  

i know we joke about it all the time but this storm can make its own cold air  

[WinterWxLuvr]

I like the way the Euro looks here for the weekend 

[WhiteoutMD]

What does the Bread O-Meter say?

[Amped]

29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Weird evolution for the 25-26, but damn close to a MECS

If it doesn't get stuck in the 4 corners sandtrap like a lot of our good medium range looks did last year.

[Interstate]

Baby steps... remember baby steps at this timeframe... if we were bullseyed... we would get a cutter.