January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[H2O]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Can someone explain the avocado?  I missed that day in class.

It means we are toast

[Darkstorm]

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

It means we are toast

But I picoed that class for a reason.

 

back into hole for me.

[Ji]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The key to this is simple. If guidance is correct this time about the TPV getting displaced and stuck under the blocking in central or eastern Canada it will suppress the SE ridge. All that “other stuff” aside the SE ridge can’t win with a TPV that close by compressing the flow. 
 

However, guidance attempted this in December then it failed miserably. Guidance attempted to phase and drop a tpv under the ridging into the 50/50 space just recently and that failed. Both times guidance picked up on this “failure to launch” around day 7.   
 

So we need to get it inside day 7 for me to start feeling highly confident. If the tpv displaces into western Canada it’s not gonna work. If it doesn’t displace at all it’s not going to work. The tpv is the key to this.  It has to displace into central or eastern Canada. Ideally elongated with a lobe into the 50/50 but let’s just start with a workable pattern and go from there. 

i mean i dont see how this dosent happen. This is very common look in our winter

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Can someone explain the avocado?  I missed that day in class.

Something like this.

[CAPE]

56 minutes ago, H2O said:

It means we are toast

Love avocado toast. With a yolky egg on top. 

[Terpeast]

I’m increasingly confident that the uber warmth in Canada will begin to get scoured out starting at D6-7. After that, its TBD whether that cold air gets far enough east. 

[NorthArlington101]

Ava mentioned rain/snow for Monday, especially northern areas. 

EPS and GEPS don’t hate the timeframe. Not a ton of winners, but blinds aren’t closed.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’d like to see something good on a map whose time stamp wasn’t a three digit number starting with a 2 or 3

Same. I come in and read things are looking good and it’s a panel from the 326 hour of the GFS.  :-(

[jayyy]

WB 6Z GFS will be the first time the GFS verifies at Day 9 this winter…

Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly?


.

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Perfect spot to be 9 days out honestly?


.

not if you care more about digital snow than real snow

[jayyy]

I’m actually pretty intrigued by the 23rd potential for my latitude. I know the 95 and metro crew isn’t going to be thrilled, but the northern crew definitely has a shot at some snow during that appetizer storm.


.

[brooklynwx99]

I would certainly take my chances form NYC south in this type of pattern

cross polar flow, some blocking, and a source region that's finally favorable. this is active too with the STJ open. there's always a risk for cutters, but I like this type of pattern for overrunning, which are "easier" storms that can still deliver for a larger area

[jayyy]

not if you care more about digital snow than real snow

Which clown cares more about digital snow than real snow? or gets completely deflated by a clown map printed by an OP model 9 days out? We REALLY need some snow out of this next window to bring the sanity back to this forum. It’s depressing AF in here.

Glad to see models converging on the idea of a Bob Chill setup for the final week of January. Been saying this all winter long - it’s our best hope to see snow. Overrunning patterns are going to work out more often than banking on 8 variables to break our way.

Cold air dome + an active jet out of the SW riding waves underneath us = key to success. If we can get some blocking to slow things down, perhaps we see one of these storms blow up along the coast.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Doubtful the gfs is the same for those south of us 

[TSSN+]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Doubtful the gfs is the same for those south of us 

Omg I’m shocked 

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS should be renamed the CFS

Cutter Forecast System 

[ryanconway63]

GFS only went from a a Low off of Hatteras to the Low in Buffalo.....just minor differences

[Paleocene]

The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that.

[Interstate]

I dont know why everyone seems surprised that run over run of the models change dramatically.  I mean all it takes is a little change early that amplifies down the road on the run. 

[SnowenOutThere]

CMC made a major improvement for a mixed event for the region, even ends as snow for the metro centers.

[IronTy]

54 minutes ago, Ji said:

not if you care more about digital snow than real snow

That's a perfect setup for SoMD.  

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

6 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

To be blunt. But at that point who cares? Winter is basically over and we are beginning meteorlogical spring.

We can get huge events early march

March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

The D9/27th system cuts and transfers off Long Island for a decent SNE snowstorm, more importantly, GFS is showing an actual cold push after that.

sets us up perfectly for the "fantasy range" rain storm on 29th coming out of the gulf

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

March 1993 yes you can especially if deep arctic air rushes south to meet up with increasingly unstable humid warm Gulf of Mexico or Southwest Atlantic BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE!!

I am well aware of March 1993. But other then a few rogue events winter is basically over for the most part. Plus you are fighting increasing daytime temperatures and sun angle by that point as well (yes I said it, sun angle).

[TSSN+]

GFS may be less accurate than 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, snowfan said:

 

 

 

 

This sequence is confusing.

looks at the main poster

[nj2va]

I probably missed this somewhere but who’s Ava?  Is she a poster here?  She sounds like Cher in that she has no last name. 

[nw baltimore wx]

18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I probably missed this somewhere but who’s Ava?  Is she a poster here?  She sounds like Cher in that she has no last name. 

https://www.wbaltv.com/news-team/94bbffff-a7b9-4c36-bb2f-06667a954aa2

[mappy]

lets move along

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

lets move along

No clue why we get so stuck on stuff in here...like, sheesh! Maybe the snow weenie brain likes to argue or somethin', lol