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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
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There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
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I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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CAPE

CAPE

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In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.

 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

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  On 1/17/2023 at 12:05 PM, Bob Chill said:

VERY nice 48hr ens height trends. I don't give a single turd if d10 is a swva special (I'll send pics) because we aren't snowing until we are compressing and flattening to our east and north. Anyone who disagrees must really like the last 6 weeks :lol:

 

gfs-ens_z500trend_us_20.png

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As a side bar, great to see your posts in here daily the past several days. Refreshing.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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  On 1/17/2023 at 12:07 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:

As a side bar, great to see your posts in here daily the past several days. Refreshing.

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I've been active a few times but the leads were long and nothing has come close so mostly quiet this year.

Seeing confluent flow not only building in strength on ens but also staying put or speeding up in time is the best thing we've seen this year by far inside of d10. When the WAR and SE ridge have steered every single storm to our NW unabated, it gets really simple what to track and root for.... Confluence hammer!:tomato:

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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  On 1/17/2023 at 12:22 PM, H2O said:

Bob Chill honking is the only thing I pay attention to. Not snow in Japan

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For now, things look like they want to shift into a pattern that has fewer problems than we've seen. Good time of year and the east in general is waaay behind. Little out of the basement rally would feel like a blizzard

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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The key to this is simple. If guidance is correct this time about the TPV getting displaced and stuck under the blocking in central or eastern Canada it will suppress the SE ridge. All that “other stuff” aside the SE ridge can’t win with a TPV that close by compressing the flow. 
 

However, guidance attempted this in December then it failed miserably. Guidance attempted to phase and drop a tpv under the ridging into the 50/50 space just recently and that failed. Both times guidance picked up on this “failure to launch” around day 7.   
 

So we need to get it inside day 7 for me to start feeling highly confident. If the tpv displaces into western Canada it’s not gonna work. If it doesn’t displace at all it’s not going to work. The tpv is the key to this.  It has to displace into central or eastern Canada. Ideally elongated with a lobe into the 50/50 but let’s just start with a workable pattern and go from there. 

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cbmclean

cbmclean

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  On 1/17/2023 at 11:26 AM, CAPE said:

In order to get a good outcome for the period around the 27th, we don't want the energy rolling over the Pac ridge to phase with the NS vort rotating down around the TPV. Worst case we end up with Ralphs's dreaded avocado scenario. At the very least it will continue to delay the progression of the cold southeastward.

 

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Can someone explain the avocado?  I missed that day in class.

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