January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[IronTy]

30 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384?  That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly.  

We all know p28 will verify

I read in one of my weather textbooks that modeling at distance is such a crapshoot because even something like a tiny rounding difference between two identical initializations in the computer can extrapolate to completely different outcomes in the long range.

[Terpeast]

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

That’s a hopium outcome, but I still suspect at least 2/3 of Feb will be warm. This nina is stubborn af, and ninos aren’t necessarily cold winters. My guess right now would be the first and last weeks of Feb will be cold, with march still being a wildcard.

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

Yeah I mean this thing ain't acted like a nina all winter...when Chill said the winter had "spoken" I was like...what the frickle is it saying? Lol Despite ground result being 0 inches so far, it's been a lot of mixed signals...particularly as we head through January here. Not sure anybody can be certain yet where it's gonna go given what you just mentioned.

[Ji]

Next winter storm that hooks to our left...we can call it winter storm maher

[Ji]

Yeah I mean this thing ain't acted like a nina all winter...when Chill said the winter had "spoken" I was like...what the frickle is it saying? Lol Despite ground result being 0 inches so far, it's been a lot of mixed signals...particularly as we head through January here. Not sure anybody can be certain yet where it's gonna go given what you just mentioned.

This has been a Nina winter. No doubt About it. Warm wet followed by short loved cold. Lack of pna...cutters...+10 in January...etc

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I mean this thing ain't acted like a nina all winter...when Chill said the winter had "spoken" I was like...what the frickle is it saying? Lol Despite ground result being 0 inches so far, it's been a lot of mixed signals...particularly as we head through January here. Not sure anybody can be certain yet where it's gonna go given what you just mentioned.

This has been a Nina winter. No doubt About it. Warm wet followed by short loved cold. Lack of pna...cutters...+10 in January...etc

Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

December was cold, at least relatively.

[Ji]

Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

December was a bit below average temp wise

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

December was cold, at least relatively.

 

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I was under the impression that Ninas were usually colder on the front end. Not so?

December was a bit below average temp wise

I see...but ain't January usually cold? I mean the last few nina Januarys have been, anyway.

[Ji]

I see...but ain't January usually cold? I mean the last few nina Januarys have been, anyway.

They can go either way...there is no rule. If dec and Jan were always cold...we would be cheering for a Nina every year

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I see...but ain't January usually cold? I mean the last few nina Januarys have been, anyway.

They can go either way...there is no rule. If dec and Jan were always cold...we would be cheering for a Nina every year

Well even when cold the tendency for a trough west/ridge east makes Ninas especially prone to cold dry/warm wet syndrome.  

[Ji]

Well even when cold the tendency for a trough west/ridge east makes Ninas especially prone to cold dry/warm wet syndrome.  

That's what made dec so dissapointing. Wr had a west based nao and we still had a se ridge lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Another question...(this may be more for @WxWatcher007: Do tropical/extra-tropical storms cool down SSTs once they pass through?

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another question...(this may be more for @WxWatcher007: Do tropical/extra-tropical storms cool down SSTs once they pass through?

Tropical storms definitely do.  Not sure about ET.  

[Ji]

24 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Tropical storms definitely do.  Not sure about ET.  

talking about tropical storms in a winter thread in January--tells the story of our winter

[Daniel Boone]

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another question...(this may be more for @WxWatcher007: Do tropical/extra-tropical storms cool down SSTs once they pass through?

Depending on the strength and forward speed I'd think they would. 

[Ji]

[Ji]

3 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384?  That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly.  

We all know p28 will verify

what do you mean?

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

talking about tropical storms in a winter thread in January--tells the story of our winter

Actually...I was thinking about the warm SSTs and how a but of a cooling off might help 

[Ji]

folks...we did it. We attained Blue

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

folks...we did it. We attained Blue

And on the blue-stingy GFS, no less

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And on the blue-stingy GFS, no less

that bowling ball action of going from the SW due east into a cold air mass....get used to that in El Nino 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And on the blue-stingy GFS, no less

if i was guaranteed that storm today and no other this winter.....i would sign up as quickly as Dallas signs a new kicker on Tuesday

[Heisy]

GFS gives us a true good old fashioned SECS around the 30th. Get the cold air here magic can happen


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[Heisy]

GEFS has the smoothed out setup for around the 30th too. Cold done and some energy in Southwest



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[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

GEFS has the smoothed out setup for around the 30th too. Cold done and some energy in Southwest



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So we went from the 22nd to the 25th to the 27th and now to the 30th as threat windows all in under 12 hours? Impressive can-kicking....Dallas Cowboys should look to sign. 

[Weather Will]

WB EURO weeklies also like the later part of February and early March.

[Ji]

Feel like gfs and euro are forecasting for different planets for this weekend through next Wednesday

[Rtd208]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EURO weeklies also like the later part of February and early March.

To be blunt. But at that point who cares? Winter is basically over and we are beginning meteorlogical spring.

[Ji]

Big changes for the 25th 26th