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January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

psuhoffman

By psuhoffman,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

There's a difference between passively discussing and actively or exclusively focusing on it. 5 paragraph posts every day or 2 talking about isn't passive. Only a few are really interested in speculat

stormtracker
stormtracker

I'm going to personally get us these storms or storm by sheer fucking will.   This forum is an apocalyptic husk:  fights, ruins, fires everywhere.  Despair so wide even the Cowboy's kicker could

psuhoffman
psuhoffman

You will all be glad to know I can no longer make my “when it hasn’t snowed an inch in Manchester by this date the winter was this bad” posts anymore.    Beautiful day at snowshoe 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 10:22 PM, TJ3 said:

Poor Bob knew what was happening at the 6:00 broadcast. He was not his usual certain self, I am sure on purpose. He could not come out and say what was happening without coordination with local NWS offices. But he practically begged the viewers to tune back in at 11:00. 

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I vividly remember that. I was practically yelling at the TV. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 10:28 PM, BristowWx said:

He would be having a party with this pattern…”Still no sign no sign of our first inch of snow…and it’s almost Feb…no sign…golden snow shovel will be out away for next year”

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Haha yeah totally, that’s why I disliked Bob Ryan. He seemed to revel in the snow lover’s disappointment. I liked Doug Hill way better. 

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jayyy

jayyy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 1:15 PM, Ralph Wiggum said:
We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

Been saying this all winter long. We’re not going to win out 9/10 times with complicated setups. There’s just been so much working against us in the longwave pattern. We need a window where the PAC chills out (our advertised -EPO) which would in turn relax the constant W-E flow which keeps eroding every cold air mass we get. This would in turn allow the boundary to get pulled south and for us to score a win or two with an active jet.

Models seem to be converging on the idea of us seeing a period where we have a relaxed PAC, a cold air source, and an active southern jet. If these all line up, we could see a few light to moderate events from storms riding the boundary south of us. IF we can also get a -NAO, as CAPE pointed out, that’s how we potentially get a more significant snowstorm out of this.


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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 11:08 PM, wxdude64 said:

As I said to someone the other day, the comment 'warm/wet cold/dry' exists for a reason

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Yeah but usually that's a cutter pattern ain't it? Lol And besides, I'm not so sure the STJ just disappears like that so easily...still plenty of time to figure out this pattern change!

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 11:14 PM, Heisy said:
GFS now the only model that’s phasing NS with southern ULL for the day 5-7 system so hard to trust its evolution beyond that.


Icon was the only other model and it backed off at 18z

Not that anyone cares, but right now I’m thinking we have 7-9 days of hell to get through. Maybe the day 5-6 system tracks just right with NS and trailer vort for some front end or NW frozen, then we face the possible cutter around the 26/27th…However, it then finally looks like we could have an opportunity if EPS etc is right.

Stealing this from my Philly forum, but the trend is our friend right now. Just another week of patience. If things hold by next weekend we could have something on the radar to track.

7fbbcbc5829ceb561d7f5ec74d92751a.gif




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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 11:33 PM, Heisy said:


Not that anyone cares, but right now I’m thinking we have 7-9 days of hell to get through. Maybe the day 5-6 system tracks just right with NS and trailer vort for some front end or NW frozen, then we face the possible cutter around the 26/27th…However, it then finally looks like we could have an opportunity if EPS etc is right.

Stealing this from my Philly forum, but the trend is our friend right now. Just another week of patience. If things hold by next weekend we could have something on the radar to track.

7fbbcbc5829ceb561d7f5ec74d92751a.gif




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That’s the Yahtzee effect right there.  Awesome! 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted
  On 1/16/2023 at 11:54 PM, Heisy said:


Nice split flow action forms on the SW, headed to work, but really positive ensemble runs today. Let’s build on it over the next few days.

eede831cb6cde5fd5fd5b8884a26c50f.jpg


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Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

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IronTy

IronTy

Posted
Posted
  On 1/17/2023 at 1:45 AM, cbmclean said:

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384?  That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly.  

We all know p28 will verify

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I read in one of my weather textbooks that modeling at distance is such a crapshoot because even something like a tiny rounding difference between two identical initializations in the computer can extrapolate to completely different outcomes in the long range.

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