January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[TJ3]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

He was referencing Bob Ryan's forecast right before the destruction was imminent 

Poor Bob knew what was happening at the 6:00 broadcast. He was not his usual certain self, I am sure on purpose. He could not come out and say what was happening without coordination with local NWS offices. But he practically begged the viewers to tune back in at 11:00. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

I can come back to this thread after a few days, see the number of posts by Ji, and instantly know things aren’t going well 
 

Here’s to hoping it turns around soon. 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

Poor Bob knew what was happening at the 6:00 broadcast. He was not his usual certain self, I am sure on purpose. He could not come out and say what was happening without coordination with local NWS offices. But he practically begged the viewers to tune back in at 11:00. 

I vividly remember that. I was practically yelling at the TV. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

I vividly remember that. I was practically yelling at the TV. 

He would be having a party with this pattern…”Still no sign no sign of our first inch of snow…and it’s almost Feb…no sign…golden snow shovel will be out away for next year”

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

He would be having a party with this pattern…”Still no sign no sign of our first inch of snow…and it’s almost Feb…no sign…golden snow shovel will be out away for next year”

Haha yeah totally, that’s why I disliked Bob Ryan. He seemed to revel in the snow lover’s disappointment. I liked Doug Hill way better. 

[Ji]

Amazing how nothing shows up when cold gets established

[jayyy]

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

Been saying this all winter long. We’re not going to win out 9/10 times with complicated setups. There’s just been so much working against us in the longwave pattern. We need a window where the PAC chills out (our advertised -EPO) which would in turn relax the constant W-E flow which keeps eroding every cold air mass we get. This would in turn allow the boundary to get pulled south and for us to score a win or two with an active jet.

Models seem to be converging on the idea of us seeing a period where we have a relaxed PAC, a cold air source, and an active southern jet. If these all line up, we could see a few light to moderate events from storms riding the boundary south of us. IF we can also get a -NAO, as CAPE pointed out, that’s how we potentially get a more significant snowstorm out of this.


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[Ji]

The December failure was still mind-boggling. West based historic nao...negative ao...ridging in Alaska...but somehow la nina and the pna was able to overcome it

[wxdude64]

18 minutes ago, Ji said:

Amazing how nothing shows up when cold gets established

As I said to someone the other day, the comment 'warm/wet cold/dry' exists for a reason

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

As I said to someone the other day, the comment 'warm/wet cold/dry' exists for a reason

Yeah but usually that's a cutter pattern ain't it? Lol And besides, I'm not so sure the STJ just disappears like that so easily...still plenty of time to figure out this pattern change!

[Heisy]

GFS now the only model that’s phasing NS with southern ULL for the day 5-7 system so hard to trust its evolution beyond that.


Icon was the only other model and it backed off at 18z

[Ralph Wiggum]

38 minutes ago, Ji said:

Amazing how nothing shows up when cold gets established

FML....we r back to tracking avocados that overwhelm the pattern with too much cold? Glad it's just the op, but there is a deja vu vibe here without a doubt. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Can you help a weenie out?  Is that showing a TPV split?

Yes but that is a PV split at the stratosphere level 10mb, not trop

[Scraff]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

NOGAPS.  +4000

Hello!?

CRAS +50000

[Heisy]

GFS now the only model that’s phasing NS with southern ULL for the day 5-7 system so hard to trust its evolution beyond that.


Icon was the only other model and it backed off at 18z

Not that anyone cares, but right now I’m thinking we have 7-9 days of hell to get through. Maybe the day 5-6 system tracks just right with NS and trailer vort for some front end or NW frozen, then we face the possible cutter around the 26/27th…However, it then finally looks like we could have an opportunity if EPS etc is right.

Stealing this from my Philly forum, but the trend is our friend right now. Just another week of patience. If things hold by next weekend we could have something on the radar to track.






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[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

FML....we r back to tracking avocados that overwhelm the pattern with too much cold? Glad it's just the op, but there is a deja vu vibe here without a doubt. 

Overwhelming cold is very very low on my list of worries.

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Not that anyone cares, but right now I’m thinking we have 7-9 days of hell to get through. Maybe the day 5-6 system tracks just right with NS and trailer vort for some front end or NW frozen, then we face the possible cutter around the 26/27th…However, it then finally looks like we could have an opportunity if EPS etc is right.

Stealing this from my Philly forum, but the trend is our friend right now. Just another week of patience. If things hold by next weekend we could have something on the radar to track.






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That’s the Yahtzee effect right there.  Awesome! 

[Heisy]

18z GEFS coming in a little improved as well for the time period I mentioned



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[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Amazing how nothing shows up when cold gets established

Yep. It's just that type of a rotten winter. 

[Heisy]

18z GEFS coming in a little improved as well for the time period I mentioned



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Nice split flow action forms on the SW, headed to work, but really positive ensemble runs today. Let’s build on it over the next few days.




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[frd]

 

YES PLEASE   

 

 

 

[frd]

Incredible multi post read, you might to get a coffee 

 

 

 

[Solution Man]

I love me some snow but damn we’re getting close to checkmate. This is the Winter of SUCK.

[Weather Will]

WB 18z GEFS.  Interesting to see about half the members keep it cold beyond February 1.

[Ji]

 
YES PLEASE   
 
 
 

I posted a chart today that showed 70% chance of nino by fall

[frd]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

I posted a chart today that showed 70% chance of nino by fall

Excellent ! 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Incredible multi post read, you might to get a coffee 

 

 

 

Coffee stout work?

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18z GEFS.  Interesting to see about half the members keep it cold beyond February 1.

Is it normal to have that much variability at 384?  That's like a random number generator; every possible permutation of temperature anomaly.  

We all know p28 will verify

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

Nice split flow action forms on the SW, headed to work, but really positive ensemble runs today. Let’s build on it over the next few days.




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Watch Feb do the unthinkable now and go opposite the typical Nina base and be a redemption month. Honestly would not surprise me in the least. This hasn't behaved like a typical Nina and the SSTs are already warming slightly in the enso waters. Add the SSWE too and anyone's guess.

[Ralph Wiggum]

53 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Coffee stout work?

How about a caramel espresso porter?