January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[BristowWx]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! 

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, Heisy said:

No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region.

Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least



Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about…



.

Ffs those lower heights better not take on the appearance and color of an avocado on that other site's map template.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

You also said the 6z gefs mean was a torch thru the end of the month earlier so there's that.

[Ji]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

it wasnt a car topper.....it was a huge storm that was suppose to miss us but the storm had elite potential not car topper potential

[Ji]

im sick and tired of being funny. For the next 2 weeks, your going to get a stream of serious meteorogical posts from me

[Heisy]

Maybe one of the best EPS runs we’ve had over the last few weeks for the Jan 27+ period. It does seem like there will be a cutter day 9 but then the cold air is finally ushered in. -EPO, some Atlantic ridging, TPV sitting in a good spot, gotta get it under 7-9 days though


.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

it wasnt a car topper.....it was a huge storm that was suppose to miss us but the storm had elite potential not car topper potential

He was referencing Bob Ryan's forecast right before the destruction was imminent 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

im sick and tired of being funny. For the next 2 weeks, your going to get a stream of serious meteorogical posts from me

You realize this post is funny af right?

 

.... wait a minute... I feel a treble hook in my lip... brb

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

He was referencing Bob Ryan's forecast right before the destruction was imminent 

Yes.  1-2 turned into 12-24.  Awesome for 2000.  

[BristowWx]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You also said the 6z gefs mean was a torch thru the end of the month earlier so there's that.

I did. I did say that.  I feel like the SER will win out ultimately.  If I’m wrong we all win.  

[AtlanticWx]

6 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did. I did say that.  I feel like the SER will win out ultimately.  If I’m wrong we all win.  

who's gonna win, strong TPV lobe(s) or a weak SE ridge? obviously the se ridge!

[AtlanticWx]

growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies

[Ralph Wiggum]

27 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I did. I did say that.  I feel like the SER will win out ultimately.  If I’m wrong we all win.  

Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents.

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies

Would we all be surprised if this triggers a PD3 storm that puts this winter in better standing?

I would. But one can dream.

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Would we all be surprised if this triggers a PD3 storm that puts this winter in better standing?

I would. But one can dream.

what's pd3?

[Cobalt]

42 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Jan 25th 2000 will never happen again as long as we live.  You know this.  Predicted car toppers don’t turn into MECS anymore. 

Jan 3rd of last year is probably the closest we've been to a a reverse bust of that magnitude in some time, considering that the Euro had 1-3" for areas that would end up getting 8-14" just 36 hours later, but not on the same scale as a KU that snuck up 6-12hrs before onset.. that will never happen again.

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

growing support for an SSWE per the weeklies

[GramaxRefugee]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

.... Guidance isn't perfect....

Rather an understatement, I'd say.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can you help a weenie out?  Is that showing a TPV split?

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

what's pd3?

Presidents day. We’ve had two storms that day, pd1 79 and pd2 03

[Chris78]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

We are on the plus side of the 35 yard with Taylor Heinicke at the helm….what could go wrong?

Could be worse. 

It's Hundley .... 1st and goal from the 2. 

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, AtlanticWx said:

what's pd3?

Presidents Day 3 storm

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Presidents day. We’ve had two storms that day, pd1 79 and pd2 03

we can hope!

imo we could end up w/ a 2008-09 type winter where we get one snow event late jan, an SSWE and a good storm in march

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z Ensembles….look good for later part of January. 

[BristowWx]

22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, wrt the Jan 25, 2000 bust (a good bust mind you) you say will never happen again we still have major busts under 24 hrs and that goes both positive and negative. There was one coastal maybe Jan 2017(?) where coastal S Jersey was forecast to get 1-3' up until 12 -18 hours prior. Mets kept saying it's coming, just delayed. Woke up in Wildwood NJ to partly sunny and a scattered flurry. Guidance isn't perfect and we still get surprises. I'm sure there have been positive busts for folks on here within the past few years as well. Guess my point is that speaking is absolutes such as "this will never happen again " can be a careless approach. Now back to the weenie eps gents.

You are right. That was a big one and really close. I went to bed thinking 1-2…but you are right.  I am a little jaded this winter.  Some snow will cure that 

[BristowWx]

23 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Jan 3rd of last year is probably the closest we've been to a a reverse bust of that magnitude in some time, considering that the Euro had 1-3" for areas that would end up getting 8-14" just 36 hours later, but not on the same scale as a KU that snuck up 6-12hrs before onset.. that will never happen again.

It might. Ralph is right never say never. Unlikely maybe but we probably said that back then too.  

[Albedoman]

 And this what the models are showing 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, AtlanticWx said:

what's pd3?

A fantasy that puts the Penthouse Forum to shame 

[Solution Man]

Betting window open folks

 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Betting window open folks

 

NOGAPS.  +4000