January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[H2O]

We can’t even get tropical storms here in winter. This place sucks for weather

[Heisy]

12z icon



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[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

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I think most of us would sign no questions asked right now.

[Heisy]

I think most of us would sign no questions asked right now.

Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction


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[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Def a thread the needle event, but good trends towards it. Need the right timing of NS/SS interaction

In all seriousness, that’s our winter so we just have to embrace it. There’s no low complexity events walking through the door until we have a cold source capable of delivering.

For most…just getting on the board in a meaningful way would be a huge win heading into peak climo.

[Ji]

wow no posts in an hour on jan 16 during the 12z runs

[DE2PA]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

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That Icon track for that storm has been pretty consistent hasn’t it?

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, DE2PA said:

That Icon track for that storm has been pretty consistent hasn’t it?

Don't put too much stock in it--it's the ICON, lol

[DE2PA]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Don't put too much stock in it--it's the ICON, lol

Of course. But EURO, GFS, and CMC are also all different from one another during this period. Just taking note that the ICON has like this particular storm track over the last several runs.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, DE2PA said:

Of course. But EURO, GFS, and CMC are also all different from one another during this period. Just taking note that the ICON has like this particular storm track over the last several runs.

Yeah I gotcha. Man we ain't gotten somethin' to slide under us like that in forever--would be nice, lol

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I gotcha. Man we ain't gotten somethin' to slide under us like that in forever--would be nice, lol

and when its sliden below us..there has been no cold air

[Bob Chill]

Imo only, best look this year for snow d10 on gefs. I've been watching like everyone but kept seeing the same stoopid tendency to pop a ridge in front of every stoopid shortwave... trend has shifted more confluent on basically all guidance. 

Big storm hunters won't like this setup too much because upside is limited. Personally, sitting at zero makes any upside at all pretty enticing....

Nice mean jet panel 

 

VERY nice mean 850 wind panel... we have not had this type of flow leading into any event... Any kind of mid level flow with a north vector can overcome temp flaws. This year it seems like an elusive requirement

 

 

Connect the mid and upper flow in your brain with these panels and you have every ingredient on the table for a 3-6" TN valley overrunner with WNW flow in the mids... heh... wut tf does that even mean? Lol

 

 

 

[Bob Chill]

Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

Yeah even to my novice eyes guidance seems to be sniffing out some kind of shift in pattern (how long it lasts who knows). I mean for once you're seeing that dang se ridge finally relax some and the look seems to be moving up in time. Hope we can get SOMETHING outta that...Yeah I'm a big storm hunter, but given this winter...just gettin' on the frickin' board would be better than where we've been! We shall see...

[Maestrobjwa]

12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thing (got a bit of a high to the north this run)

[WxUSAF]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thingy

Not far from the Icon. I’d take it in a second.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Not far from the Icon. I’d take it in a second.

Absolutely--just get on the board, lol

[Heisy]

12z Euro a tad colder with the Day 7 thingy (got a bit of a high to the north this run)

So each model handling interaction between NS and the main shortwave differently. Euro misses phase, but keeps it far enough E to take advantage of some cold, gfs phased it, cmc misses phase but keeps shortwave well west. Icon has the best interaction obv


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[Heisy]

Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily




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[Ji]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Honestly, I hope we get a big powerful cutter like the euro/cmc showing in LR. Could at least shake things up and possibly bring colder air SE temporarily




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for sure bro..we could use a cutter this season

[brooklynwx99]

55 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta add my enthusiasm level to my last post... I'm only posting panels because it looks like a "real" way to snow. It will prob morph against us like every other long lead look but this one is at least logical and "normal" and it's showing up dead center prime climo. Doesn't seem too crazy to talk about

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

I’ll take it

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! 

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I’ll take it

15 days out…seems like a lock to me.  I’m all in

[Solution Man]

Just now, BristowWx said:

15 days out…seems like a lock to me.  I’m all in

We are on the plus side of the 35 yard with Taylor Heinicke at the helm….what could go wrong?

[Ji]

La Nina is on its death bed. 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if the gradient sets up here, then this could be a fun pattern for everyone. this is cold, and the TPV is displaced in a really good spot... lowers heights in the 50/50 region and would act as confluence 

As long as we don't start tracking avocados again when the TPV starts wobbling around and gets displaced. Don't think we will this time around.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

if we dont score in this window...we are in big trouble lol...until March especially if we get into a improper phase of MJO. But i am feeling pretty good about this. Hopefully we do a 99-2000 winter where the entire window sucked but we got a good 10 days of winter....between Jan 25 and early Feb! 

I'll take a 10 hour window at this point brother. I think many here would tbh.

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'll take a 10 hour window at this point brother. I think many here would tbh.

 

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

As long as we don't start tracking avocados again when the TPV starts wobbling around and gets displaced. Don't think we will this time around.

 

[Heisy]

for sure bro..we could use a cutter this season

No, I want a real one, decimate Chicago. Something to get some confluence near our region.

Here is control (to show where that big day 9 cutter could lead us), finally pushing the confluence/cold air where we need it at least



Here is EPS mean around same time, best shot looks right after that front day 10, which is what I was talking about…



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