January Mid/Long Range Disco 3: The great recovery or shut the blinds?

[Ji]

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[osfan24]

This is the Greg Roman of winters.

[jayyy]

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???


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[jayyy]

The ICON tries to make something happen with wave #2. Boundary doesn’t push far enough south on this run for most of us verbatim (mainly an interior special) but minute details this far out are pretty irrelevant.

The chance is definitely there, but we’ll need a lot to go right to cash in.

[DarkSharkWX]

Looks like GEFS is colder

[jayyy]

Looks like GEFS is colder

Decent amount of agreement among models regarding there being snow chances in the window from the 23rd thru end of the month. Nice to see the potential within 7 days, instead of 10-14+

Could see a scenario where wave 1 (mostly rain) drags the boundary south, creating snow cover to our NW, with a possible second wave tracking shortly behind it with a fresh airmass to tap into. Especially if wave 1 acts as a quasi-50/50 to slow things down with proper spacing between waves. The expected -EPO and resulting relaxation of the hostile PAC could be the key ingredient we need to finally see a legit chance at snow as we’d finally get a small break from the very progressive flow we’ve dealt with all winter.

I’m also not entirely sold on this idea of a wall to wall torch in February either. I’m fairly positive we see a warm up early on, as the PAC has ultimately won out all season long, but you can also see how we could get a “reload” of the pattern if a few things were to break our way. It’d be an uphill battle though and the chance of failure would certainly be pretty high leading in, as we’d have to bank on a mixture of good timing and some luck to make it work.

This winter has been ROUGH, but a decent second half would go a long way toward bringing some sanity back to this board.

[DE2PA]

 

Trending in the right direction so it would appear 

[CAPE]

The period beyond the 25th still looks pretty favorable with colder air in place and SE ridge suppressed, and indications of multiple waves moving along the boundary. The 23rd is still worth watching mainly for those further north.

Nice h5 look on the EPS here. It has a more prominent -NAO and a somewhat colder look than the the GEFS.

[WxUSAF]

7 hours ago, osfan24 said:

This is the Greg Roman of winters.

Feb 25th, down 18” below climo, winter 22-23 is going for the QB jump sneak from the 5 yard line…a dynamically cooling induced dusting overnight with a temp of 34F.

[BristowWx]

6z GEFS looks warm for us through end of Jan.  A month I will be glad to see die

[Ji]

6z GEFS looks warm for us through end of Jan.  A month I will be glad to see die

Hmm

[CAPE]

12 hours ago, Mercurial said:

it's been a crap winter in sapporo proper.  They've missed out on many of the snowbands that have hit Otaru, Iwamizawa etc.  For that matter, the whole of Hokkaido just torched late last week, temps got into the mid 40s for two days which is quite unusual.

Looks like they are making up for it now.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Hmm

Ok also wet.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

The period beyond the 25th still looks pretty favorable with colder air in place and SE ridge suppressed

 

15 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z GEFS looks warm for us through end of Jan.  A month I will be glad to see die

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z GEFS looks warm for us through end of Jan.  A month I will be glad to see die

Toasty asf

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Toasty asf

Yep. Looks pretty good through the end of the month. Looks like a gradient pattern that we may be on the right side of the thermal boundary at times.

We shall see

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ok also wet.  

Might be, but if you are looking at the mean be careful taking surface temps too literally. A range of possibilities for around the 27th on the current GEFS, including not much of anything and cold with precip suppressed south.

 

eta- 6 hour panel; there are a few with snow preceding this timeframe.

[AtlanticWx]

38 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

6z GEFS looks warm for us through end of Jan.  A month I will be glad to see die

Warm? Temp anoms are consistently below 0C throughout the entire run past the 26th and best of all -

[Ralph Wiggum]

23 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Yep. Looks pretty good through the end of the month. Looks like a gradient pattern that we may be on the right side of the thermal boundary at times.

We shall see

Exactly. I like seeing Ji's precip map displaced S too. Not a bad signal.

[Ralph Wiggum]

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

[AtlanticWx]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

i do have a good feeling ab this pattern just gotta hope things continue to trend better

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

Haha Yeah I mean...for me, I'm just happy to see the dang se ridge FINALLY trending weaker. I mean that's been the main issue so far, right? I'll happily roll the dice with anything that ain't that, lol

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha Yeah I mean...for me, I'm just happy to see the dang se ridge FINALLY trending weaker. I mean that's been the main issue so far, right? I'll happily roll the dice with anything that ain't that, lol

 

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

Did I get something wrong there? (still learning so please enlighten)

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did I get something wrong there? (still learning so please enlighten)

No, it’s our entire Winter, the GFS look

[Scraff]

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haha Yeah I mean...for me, I'm just happy to see the dang se ridge FINALLY trending weaker. I mean that's been the main issue so far, right? I'll happily roll the dice with anything that ain't that, lol

I thought the main issue this winter was climate change. I’ll see myself out now. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

We've failed at every single other complicated and even simple paths to victory so far. Let's try the gradient wave pattern. If this one fails we can all throw logs and journals at PSU in defeat. 

If we are brutally honest... there has never really been a chance this year. Hostile everywhere around us. I don't think we've "wasted" anything because it was waste to begin with. Lol

I like the implications for the end of the month and beyond but until that cold actually settles in, there isn't much worth slicing and dicing. I think it's safe to say this year, we aren't getting snow until cold makes its presence well known

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Yep. Looks pretty good through the end of the month. Looks like a gradient pattern that we may be on the right side of the thermal boundary at times.

We shall see

That’s the typical way we get snow in best climo heading late January to February.

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If we are brutally honest... there has never really been a chance this year. Hostile everywhere around us. I don't think we've "wasted" anything because it was waste to begin with. Lol

I like the implications for the end of the month and beyond but until that cold actually settles in, there isn't much worth slicing and dicing. I think it's safe to say this year, we aren't getting snow until cold makes its presence well known

Step number 1... get the cold air here first.

[WxWatcher007]

Good to see November extending into January